NY Times Outcome Estimate (Hill's Group)

[MSMITH33156]

This was called out in another thread by someone (I can't find it now, sorry, or I'd give credit) but the NY Times has a tool called the upshot that estimates the outcome in states based on demographics and votes coming in. It basically predicts the final votes.

Now, HUGELY important point...this changes, sometimes radically, as votes come in. For example, when I first looked at this, it had Hillary winning Missouri by 3%, it's now down to 0.5, so this will change over time.

But right now, Hillary +0.5% in Missouri and +6.0% in Illinois

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/03/15/upshot/live-model-democratic-primary-results.html?_r=0

[Rose Siding]

1. Here's an interactive link with totals by county for all states

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2016/mar/15/florida-illinois-missouri-north-carolina-ohio-live-results-primary-caucuses

[MSMITH33156]

2. Thanks

Good stuff.

[MSMITH33156]

3. Latest update

Missouri is basically tied in the NY Times estimate. Clinton +0.2 based on 12% in.

Illinois is +4.9% with 28% in.

Keep in mind that these are not just based on votes in. These estimates take the existing votes, and estimate what the rest of the state will look like based on those votes. So they are guessing the final outcome at 0.2% in Missouri and 4.9% in Illinois. But as they get more votes in, these numbers change. Hillary was up much more in these estimates earlier. So stay tuned.