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Tarc

(10,472 posts)
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:02 AM Mar 2016

One Math to Rule Them All...

At the end of the day (I know, trite phrase), the inevitability of the numbers is what will carry Hillary to the nomination.

I've been playing around with numbers tonight, so...first off, let's set aside the super-delegates for now, and that 1 weird unassigned delegate. According to the Wikipedia primary article, it stands at;

HRC: 1132
BS: 818

To win: 2383

With 2020 pledged delegates left to win, let's be pie-in-the-sky unicorns and leprechauns generous and give Sanders a run-the-table 60%-40% blowout in every remaining contest;

HRC: 1940
BS: 2030

That's it, a +90 after a miracle run. So let's pepper the numbers with a few bits of realism;

DC, Puerto Rico, 70% Hillary
Kentucky, 65% Hillary
NY, NJ, MD, AZ, even split

HRC: 2032
BC: 1938

+94. That's what it takes to give him +90 vs her +90; a miracle vs a few tweaks. This still leaves in 60-40s for Bernie we know are never going to happen, like California and Pennsylvania.

Slow and steady wins this race.



8 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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One Math to Rule Them All... (Original Post) Tarc Mar 2016 OP
Sanders supporters are in major denial cosmicone Mar 2016 #1
Hence the recent muttering Treant Mar 2016 #2
K&R UtahLib Mar 2016 #3
K&R! DemonGoddess Mar 2016 #4
Likewise, there are super delegates who have not declared and with Hillary Thinkingabout Mar 2016 #5
Time to put this primary to bed! Sancho Mar 2016 #6
Math is math Gothmog Mar 2016 #7
And that's when Tad Devine swoops in wearing a cape Rose Siding Mar 2016 #8
 

cosmicone

(11,014 posts)
1. Sanders supporters are in major denial
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 12:55 AM
Mar 2016

As time passes and his targets become even bigger and bigger, all the bravado will poop out.

Treant

(1,968 posts)
2. Hence the recent muttering
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 01:52 AM
Mar 2016

about delegates not being bound. They're aware they can't possibly reach their targets.

Thinkingabout

(30,058 posts)
5. Likewise, there are super delegates who have not declared and with Hillary
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 06:48 AM
Mar 2016

Gaining delegates every week, I am thinking she will get the endorsement of all of the super delegates.

Rose Siding

(32,623 posts)
8. And that's when Tad Devine swoops in wearing a cape
Thu Mar 17, 2016, 10:41 AM
Mar 2016

and hypnotizes all of Hillary's delegates to vote BS

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