STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 21, 2016

[Chichiri]

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,614, Sanders 856 (Clinton +758).
Pledged Delegates (538): Clinton 1,172, Sanders 846 (Clinton +326).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,172/1,050 (+122), Sanders 846/968 (-122).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15 (538): Clinton 397, Sanders 294 (Clinton +103).
Versus Targets: Clinton 379/365 (+32), Sanders 294/326 (-32).
Democrats Abroad: Sanders 9, Clinton 4 (Sanders +5). (not yet reflected in totals)
Versus Targets: Sanders 9/6½ (+2½), Clinton 4/6½ (-2½).


Next Primary: March 22

Arizona, Idaho, Utah: 131 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 74, Clinton 57.



Comments
Happy Spring!

The results of the Democrats Abroad vote is in, and Bernie picked up a net gain of 5 delegates (results taken from the Democrats Abroad website). This should not be surprising to anyone; for Democrats living abroad, their main link to what's happening back home is usually social media, and Bernie has already demonstrated mastery over social media. I'm a little surprised he didn't win by more.

As it is, this win cancels out about one-quarter of his net loss from Ohio.

Democrats Abroad is one of three contests where some poor delegate would have to be chopped in half in order for both candidates to meet their target. Once the DA results are factored in, Bernie's deficit against target will be down to 119½ delegates.

Bernie supporters are already near-impossible to convince that the time has come for unity. After the news about DA's results -- which can indeed be called a landslide, in the same sense that the waves destroying a little kid's sand castle is a landslide -- I'm sure they will become flat-out impossible.

Folks in Arizona, Idaho and Utah, be sure to vote tomorrow!


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
My brother used to be a banker, but then he lost interest!

[stonecutter357]

1. K&R!

[LAS14]

2. Thanks! I really appreciate these clear updates. nt

[KitSileya]

3. Someone posted that if the voting order of the states had been different,

Hillary wouldn't have been the front runner right now. I looked at the list on fivethirtyeight, and came to the realization that if all the sates that Bernie won had been at the beginning of the process they'd be at somewhere around 260 and 175 delegates each after NH, CO, MN, OK, VT, KA, NE, ME, and MI had voted. Her victory in TX would have almost wiped out that gap single-handedly. Now, I recognize that the psychological aspect would have been completely different, but I still find it fascinating.

[Treant]

5. Sure, and if wishes were horses,

beggars would ride.

It's probably good that Sanders states weren't front loaded, the constant drone of Clinton's wins and the rapid assumption in the lead of delegates and delegate margins would have spelled the end of the Sanders campaign already.

There wouldn't be any spin that he could win Mississippi in May, for instance.

[Lucinda]

4. KNR Thank you!

[Her Sister]

6. I voted abroad (Eastern Hem) in 2008!

for HRC first and Obama in the GE!

thanks for info!