STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 23, 2016

[Chichiri]

Delegate Count

Total Delegates: Clinton 1,681, Sanders 937 (Clinton +744).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,233, Sanders 929 (Clinton +304).
Versus Targets: Clinton 1,233/1,113½ (+119½), Sanders 929/1048½ (-119½).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 42.0% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

March 15: Sanders 74, Clinton 57 (Sanders +17).
Versus Targets: Sanders 74/74 (+0), Clinton 57/57 (+0).


Next Primary: March 26

Alaska, Hawaii, Washington: 142 delegates total.
Targets: Sanders 81, Clinton 61.



Comments
Bernie won the night last night, his blowout wins in Idaho and Utah more than cancelling out Hillary's quite comfortable win in Arizona. As you can see by the targets, in the end both candidates performed exactly as the demographics predicted they would.

Which is not good news for Bernie. He needs to drastically overshoot his targets in order to stand a chance. And the pool of available delegates is shrinking: despite taking 17 more delegates than Hillary yesterday, his percentage of remaining delegates needed went up by a tenth of a percent. He has 21 states and 4 territories left to make up this difference.

For the next few weeks -- possibly until Wisconsin, more likely until New York -- there will be no convincing Bernie supporters of the necessity of unity.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention). The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination.


Pun Of The Day
I don't care for perchloroethyline, and I don't like glycol ether!

[msongs]

1. odd that the sanders crowd does not complain about cheating where it WINS lol only where it loses nt

[Chichiri]

2. Yeah, all the griping about Minnesota ceased when the results came in. nt

[stonecutter357]

3. K&R!

[CalvinballPro]

4. I've been waiting 8 years to get to vote for Hillary Clinton for President. NJ on 6/7/16!

President Obama has done an amazing job, against some literally unprecedented (and frankly disloyal) opposition, and I'm glad to have been able to support him too. Twice!

I want my 3 nieces to know the highest office in the land can be their dream too, if they want.