March 28:538 Clinton has an 84% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary; Sanders 16%

[riversedge]

This is the polls+forcast





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UPDATED 10:02 AM EDT | Mar 28, 2016
v Wisconsin Democratic primary

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 84% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/


From abc news.
Happening Today -- Clinton to Give Speech on Supreme Court Vacancies

Today, Hillary Clinton will weigh in on the Supreme Court vacancy left by Antonin Scalia. In her scheduled speech at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Clinton will argue that the vacancy underscores the high stakes in this election and urge Americans to keep this in mind as they cast their vote. The Democratic hopeful plans on stating that Senate Republicans must be prevented from succeeding in their strategy of refusing to consider the President's nominee. Clinton will specifically call on Sen. Chuck Grassley, who is Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, to commit to giving President Obama's nominee Judge Merrick Garland a hearing. Clinton will also focus on Republican frontrunner Donald Trump and try to make the case that voters should be concerned about who President Trump would nominate.
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[BlueMTexpat]

1. Fingers crossed here!

Wisconsin has an open primary and we already know what havoc non-Dems have wrought in earlier primaries that were open. I sincerely hope that FivethirtyEight's poll predictions for WI are accurate.

Here's the latest RCP analysis: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_presidential_primary-3764.html

I really hope that Hillary brings this one home.

[LisaM]

15. Doubt it there will be as much crossover. Michigan was really strange that way.

I don't think Hillary voters will mess with their votes again to block Trump, especially since Cruz apparently has a lead. I also don't think you'll get Republicans crossing over to vote for Sanders. Michigan was messed up by the insane amount of crossover voting on both sides (and I'm not excusing any Hillary supporters who did this, it's wrong, IMO). We'll see, I guess.

[BlueMTexpat]

16. I totally agree with you about

ANY Hillary supporters who would use votes to stop Trump. I hope that there were some hard lessons learned from the MI result. Never take anything for granted. I sincerely hope that you are right in your assessment overall.

Drumpf is the GOP's problem! Let them clean up shop themselves and frankly, the more they are in disarray, the better for us all.

We Dems must get our strongest candidate so far ahead that we no longer have fantasy Bernie come-from-behind scenarios that only raise false hope for some and continue to cause perceptions of division where we should be united!

[LisaM]

19. It's a tough call, though. Wisconsin has a lot of college students, and a lot of rural voters.

Say that there hadn't been the supposed 7% crossover in Michigan. Hillary would have won by 3 or 4 points (I never thought the huge lead was realistic). She did pull well with her core voters. College student turnout will make a difference, and it depends on how Milwaukee does with turnout (weather could be a factor). The GOP race looks different at this point too, no Rubio, so Trump will presumably not be out in front quite so much.

A wildcard in Michigan was that Kasich was from the neighboring state of Ohio and - God knows why - appealed to some Michigan voters because of name recognition. In Wisconsin, I wonder about the Chicago suburbs. Will Hillary's name recognition, or the fact that she has Chicago ties, appeal to these voters?

[bluestateguy]

2. After Silver's Michigan F-UP, he'll have to earn back my my confidence

nt

[DavidDvorkin]

3. It wasn't Silver's fuckup

He relies on polls. Those were off. He can only use the data he has.

[seabeyond]

4. If not caucus, she won't be competing with the bagger vote. Nt

[drray23]

7. absolutely

I despise caucuses for this reason. Another one is that how easy it is for vocal supporters of Bernie Sanders to bully other people to caucus with them. I saw it on TV. They were showing a caucus and this young woman was a Hillary supporter. She was being harassed by a Bernie supporter until she finally said, "ok, am i caucusing for Bernie.". Peer pressure among young people is a powerful thing.

[seabeyond]

8. That is too bad. I didn't realize that. You know, I am simply tired of the nasty. Nt

[riversedge]

12. It is an open primary..

crap on that.

[book_worm]

5. Probably but Wisconsin will be very close.

As I'm sure you know.

[riversedge]

11. I totally agree

[UtahLib]

6. K&R. nt

[LiberalFighter]

9. I don't like it when the focus is just on whether a candidate wins a state.

That would fine and dandy in a general election when candidates get all of the electoral votes except in two states.

The focus should be on the number of delegates won and the spread. The bigger the spread the better.

[CalvinballPro]

10. A chance is just that: a chance. People beat "the odds" all the time.

WI is also an open primary, so I'm very suspicious of any polling coming out of that state currently. Especially after they dropped the ball so badly with MI.

Just saying. An 84% chance isn't a done deal or anything.

[geek tragedy]

14. that, and the only poll showing her ahead is landline only.

I'm sure she'll fight hard for WI, but it really seems like natural Sanders turf.

[geek tragedy]

13. I just don't see a Clinton win in the cards for WI.

Obama blew her out there in 2008, it's an open primary, demographically identical to Minnesota, between MI and MN (both Sanders states)

I think she thumps him in NY and PA/CT/MD/DE in the last 12 days of April, but I think a Clinton win in WI would be a major upset.

[jmowreader]

17. What's your prediction?

I'm going with Sanders +3 to Sanders +5. There's a whole lotta rural in Wisconsin, and Bernie does well in rural areas. If this was a caucus I think we'd be seeing Washington numbers, but a primary hurts him because the Bros can't bully Hillary supporters into submission.

[geek tragedy]

18. 538 target is 56, Obama won 58 in 2008, so I'll compromise and say Sanders gets 57%.

If he only gets 51-52% that's a lost opportunity.

[Treant]

24. Thanks!

I'm saying Sanders 55% myself (WI really being Sanders territory)...but I do think 55 is still a lost opportunity there. Really, anything under sixty is.

[Cha]

20. I don't see how this is possible, rivers.. It's an open primary like Minnesota so

how could she have such a great chance.

I want it to be so!

[LisaM]

21. Minnesota had caucuses

Wisconsin is a primary. So that is one positive variable.

[Cha]

22. Ah, thank you, LisaM. Is there another state Hillary won that is open and primrary..

that you know of?

[LisaM]

25. Yes, it looks as if both Illinois and Ohio do....

Here's a Wiki with a list. George and Massachusetts are on it too - Massachusetts has some caveat, and Georgia was not close, but she has won under this system before. Arizona does too, but I think you had to switch ahead of time. I don't know the exact rules of Wisconsin's.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_primaries_in_the_United_States

[Cha]

30. Thank you for your research!

Here's to Wisconsin~

[KewlKat]

23. I live in WI for 9 yrs

Highly rethug there unless you lived around Madison. I can't see that many outside of Madison or Milwaukee supporting any dem. GW could do/did no wrong. I just don't know how this one will play out. If Madison goes for the bs that BS spews than he's got it. Sadly, aside from us, I never knew one coworker or neighbor that cared anything about Hill or Bill. I was rural.

Crossing fingers she does well there. Wish I had a bird I could send her.....some folks need a sign to be convinced!

[LisaM]

26. I would guess her best shot is Milwaukee and the Chicago suburbs

Much more diverse than the rest of the state.

[Renew Deal]

27. Winning isn't enough for Bernie. He needs margins.

[Godhumor]

28. I wouldn't put too much stock in that prediction. Both Nate and Harry expect Bernie to win

But due to the lack of polling, their model doesn't reflect it.

It should be closer than the caucuses which, frankly, is all we need.

[lunamagica]

29. K&R. Go Hillary!