STATE OF THE PRIMARY - April 12, 2016

[Chichiri]

56 Days to California, 7 Days to New York.


Delegate Count

Pledged Delegates: Clinton 1,307, Sanders 1,097 (Clinton +210).
Total Delegates: Clinton 1,776, Sanders 1,127 (Clinton +649).
2,382 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 719 pledged delegates, 43.7% of remaining.
Sanders needs 929 pledged delegates, 56.4% of remaining.


Latest Results

Wyoming: Sanders 7, Clinton 7 (tie).
Versus 3/30 Targets: Sanders 7/11 (-4), Clinton 7/3 (+4).
Versus Adjusted Targets: N/A


Next Primary: April 19

New York: 247 delegates.
3/30 Targets: Sanders 128, Clinton 119.
Adjusted Targets: Sanders 130, Clinton 117.



Comments
As you can tell if you have seen yesterday's SotP and compared it with today's, all these numbers are subject to tiny changes. A recalculation from a previous contest flipped a Hillary delegate to Sanders, and suddenly most of these numbers are changed, including the adjusted targets for New York.

What's going on? Well, there are local or regional events pertaining to the primary results virtually every single week. Over this last weekend, for example, in addition to the Wyoming caucuses we had the Massachusetts Congressional District Caucuses, the Oklahoma State Convention, and the Tennessee State Executive Committee. Next weekend we've got the Arizona Congressional District Caucuses, the Colorado State Assembly, the North Carolina County Conventions . . . I could go on.

These regional events are where the more precise calculations take place. These events are also prime territory for those on either side who want to want to screw with the results -- say, by showing up as a delegate without the proper credentials, or by sending messages intended for the other side's audience that they need not attend a certain meeting. As a result, the numbers will be in a tiny state of flux right up until the convention.

Unless the count is very close, which I don't believe it will be, this flux will not be large enough to swing the race one way or the other. For now, though, it plays hell with numbers wonks like me. Therefore: all hail Google spreadsheets!


How This Works
Unless otherwise indicated, all information is taken from FiveThirtyEight except the superdelegate count, which is taken from Associated Press. Superdelegates have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates, but may change their mind before the convention. The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination. Adjusted targets further indicate how many delegates are needed to make up the deficit, if any, left by previous contests.


Pun Of The Day
I don't like grapes these days; people just aren't raisin them right!

[DesertRat]

1. Thank you, Chichiri!