Why even foes of Venezuela's government are wary of U.S. oil sanctions

[Eugene]

Source: Washington Post

Why even foes of Venezuela’s government are wary of U.S. oil sanctions

By Anthony Faiola July 23 at 7:00 AM

It’s the “nuclear option” against Venezuela — a U.S. oil embargo that would hit the government of President Nicolás Maduro where it most hurts: the wallet.

As the crisis in Caracas intensifies, that lever has never been closer to being pulled. The Trump administration confirmed this past week that “all options are on the table” — including a ban on Venezuelan oil — if a July 30 vote aimed at changing the constitution isn’t called off. The political opposition is portraying the ballot as illegal, as well as a pivotal step on the path to turning Venezuela into a dictatorship. It has promoted demonstrations nearly every day for the past three months.

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Here are their concerns about an embargo:

It’s too blunt an instrument

It might sting the United States to be indirectly propping up a Yankee-hating president with authoritarian tendencies. But those same oil sales are also propping up the long-suffering Venezuelan people.

The government uses the hard currency from its U.S. oil trade to finance imports of food and medicines, which are in critically short supply. So slapping an embargo on Venezuelan oil could quickly exacerbate the runaway inflation and scarcities of everything from toilet paper to antibiotics.

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Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/07/23/why-even-foes-of-venezuelas-government-are-wary-of-u-s-oil-sanctions/

[GatoGordo]

1. Several answers to that dilemma

1. All oil sales contingent upon approval of the National Assembly. This is something that Maduro cannot abide, because he doesn't recognize the National Assembly. Getting their approval first would require Chavismo to recognize the NA. If the United States were to unilaterally establish an embargo, that would play into Maduro's "anti-Imperialism" hand. If he didn't get the approval of the NA, he only has Chavismo to blame.

2. All oil payments to Venezuela in food and medicine. Of which there is very little in Venezuela. How would he explain this to Goldman Sachs, the Chinese and the Russians? Maduro has some big bond payments coming due. I doubt his creditors will accept band aids and chicken breasts as payment. Again, this puts the onus upon Maduro.

Let it be clear that Maduro is merely the patsy. He isn't the power behind all of this. The Cubans (well over 25,000 well placed in the PSUV, the military, GNB, PNB and in Venezuela government over the last 18 years) would love nothing more than to add another pebble into Uncle Sam's sandals. Maduro would end up room temperature is he backed down.