Russia's plan for a potential Venezuela civil war
How Russia Could Intervene in a Venezuelan Civil War
Robert Beckhusen
July 30, 2017
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"...But because Russia’s ability to intervene is limited, unlike Syria, “it is in our best interest to assist the current leadership of the country … by carrying out feasible assistance of the broadest spectrum.”
The VPK article states the best way for the Kremlin to accomplish this is by strengthening relations with the ALBA states — a coalition of left-leaning states in the Western Hemisphere, although that alliance’s influence has waned. Secondly, Russia should provide military-intelligence aid for Venezuelan counter-insurgents.
“In addition, it is in our power to find common ground with leftist groups to use them in a proxy mode on the side of the legitimate government of Venezuela.”
An obvious collection of groups to provide such support would be colectivos, or pro-government armed militias which developed from state-backed community organizations. Well-armed, motorbike-riding colectivos have frequently attacked journalists and anti-government demonstrators. In July, colectivos beat opposition politicians with pipes in the National Assembly, openly demonstrating a willingness to use force to keep the government in power — although the militias often act independently.
“Maduro gets more desperate by the hour,” CIA director Mike Pompeo told the U.S. Senate in May 2017. “The risk of these colectivos acting in a way that is not under his control increases as time goes on as well”
To be sure, Strigunov does not mention these groups by name, and there is no evidence Russia does supports them directly — which is unlikely — or will in the future. But it’s quite feasible for Russian weapons to work their way to the paramilitaries. The Zamora Plan, a regime contingency operation, authorizes the Venezuelan government to arm militias in case of a coup or civil war. Russia has sold tens of thousands of Kalashnikov rifles to the Venezuelan military in recent years...."
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http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/how-russia-could-intervene-venezuelan-civil-war-21724
Funny thing... Maduro insists that colectivos "do not exist". They are a "fiction created by the Imperialist United States"
