Roubini: Five reasons why we aren’t even close to a real recovery.

[Viva_La_Revolution]

We’re Not Even Close to a Robust Recovery
Here are five reasons why.
By Nouriel Roubini
Updated Sunday, July 22, 2012,

While the risk of a disorderly crisis in the eurozone is well recognized, a more sanguine view of the United States has prevailed. For the last three years, the consensus has been that the U.S. economy was on the verge of a robust and self-sustaining recovery that would restore above-potential growth. That turned out to be wrong, as a painful process of balance-sheet deleveraging—reflecting excessive private-sector debt, and then its carryover to the public sector—implies that the recovery will remain, at best, below-trend for many years to come.

Even this year, the consensus got it wrong, expecting a recovery to annual GDP growth of better than than 3 percent. But the first-half growth rate looks set to come in closer to 1.5 percent at best, even below 2011’s dismal 1.7 percent. And now, after getting the first half of 2012 wrong, many are repeating the fairy tale that a combination of lower oil prices, rising auto sales, recovering house prices, and a resurgence of U.S. manufacturing will boost growth in the second half of the year and fuel above-potential growth by 2013.

The reality is the opposite: For several reasons, growth will slow further in the second half of 2012 and be even lower in 2013—close to stall speed. First, growth in the second quarter has decelerated from a mediocre 1.8 percent in January-March, as job creation—averaging 70,000 a month—fell sharply.

more -> http://mobile.slate.com/articles/business/project_syndicate/2012/07/five_reasons_why_we_aren_t_even_close_to_a_real_recovery.html?tid=sm_tw_button_toolbar

[BlueinOhio]

1. This was on Yahoo

http://news.yahoo.com/us-poverty-track-rise-highest-since-1960s-112946547--finance.html
US poverty is to raise to highest since the 1960's. Pretty much has eased all gains from the war on poverty from the Johnson's adminstration. The republicans want to destroy everything from Roosevelt froward. The economy is in shambles. There is a connection to the US melt down and the mess in Europe. I remember asking on of the neocons what they thought they were going to sell to the world once they destroyed our manufacturing base and was told our financial knowhow. There is NOT going to be a recovery until the debt on the middle and lower class is forgiven. The middle and lower class buying is what drives the enconomy. We have all been victims of a hugh Ponzi scheme. We bailed out banks made it easy on companies to buy items with our money that they in turn wanted to sell us after it was our money they bought it with. So looked like a small recovery but really none at all. The mortgage bailout should have went to the homeowners guess what the money would have ended up back at the banks but at least there would have been something to show for it. Lets not forget boehner threatened to make sure there was no job recovery and him and his minions voted against everything that would benefit the people of this country. Gaithner earlier pointed this out. Also the republicans said that Ben BerNanke must not fix the economy.

[hay rick]

2. Welcome to DU.

WaPo reprint of this AP article is subject of discussion in this thread by woo me with science:http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002998131

[Mojorabbit]

3. Great article nt

[banned from Kos]

4. Roubini knows that we do have a real recovery - extended positive GDP

That is a recovery.

What does "real" mean to him? 5% - maybe more?

A recession is consecutive quarters of negative GDP. That ended in mid 2009.

[Fuddnik]

5. That's not a recovery.

That's barely fogging a mirror on life support.

[xchrom]

6. Du rec. Nt