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Purveyor

(29,876 posts)
Tue Mar 31, 2015, 12:17 PM Mar 2015

This New Indicator Shows There's No Bubble Forming in U.S. Housing

by Michelle JamriskoNina Glinski
7:00 AM EDT March 31, 2015


When a parking space in Manhattan costs $136,000 and only 15 percent of San Francisco's homes are affordable for the middle class, it's easy to worry that another housing bubble is around the corner.

The vast majority of American homeowners have little to fear: A new gauge from Nationwide Insurance in Columbus, Ohio, suggests the national market is in its best shape since 2001 and there's no reason to fear a national downturn, no less a bursting bubble.

In its first data release, the national Leading Index of Healthy Housing Markets rose to 109.8 in the fourth quarter. Values greater than 100 indicate a robust industry. The index uses local data in 373 metropolitan statistical areas that are underlying drivers of the housing market, including measures on employment changes, demographics and the mortgage market.


Source: Nationwide Insurance

When it comes to predicting bubbles, Nationwide's data is worthy of your attention. It accurately showed signs of unraveling in early 2005, long before the S&P/Case Shiller index of home prices peaked at the end of 2006 .

The housing market may not improve by leaps and bounds this year, and that's exactly why Americans should feel good, David Berson, Nationwide's chief economist said.

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This New Indicator Shows There's No Bubble Forming in U.S. Housing (Original Post) Purveyor Mar 2015 OP
The bubble is in income distribution BeyondGeography Mar 2015 #1
"I just can't foresee housing values going down". Ben Bernanke n/t jtuck004 Mar 2015 #2
Not nationwide, but in places like CA there sure is, per Dr Housing Bubble n/t eridani Mar 2015 #3
Exactly... sendero Apr 2015 #4

BeyondGeography

(39,278 posts)
1. The bubble is in income distribution
Tue Mar 31, 2015, 12:28 PM
Mar 2015

Real estate has gone mostly nowhere in most places since 2008, like incomes and job security.

sendero

(28,552 posts)
4. Exactly...
Thu Apr 2, 2015, 07:41 AM
Apr 2015

.... even places that were pretty immune from the last bubble are getting hammered. Plano and Frisco (north suburbs of Dallas) are in madness mode right now with houses selling the day they are listed and not infrequently over the asking price.

Sounds like a bubble to me, but only in hot spots.

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