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Tansy_Gold

(17,817 posts)
Sun Oct 4, 2015, 06:49 PM Oct 2015

STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Monday, 5 October 2015

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, 5 October 2015[font color=black][/font]


SMW for 2 October 2015

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 2 October 2015
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Dow Jones 16,472.37 +200.36 (1.23%)
S&P 500 1,951.36 +27.54 (1.43%)
Nasdaq 4,707.77 +80.69 (1.74%)


[font color=red]10 Year 1.99% +0.04 (2.05%)
30 Year 2.82% +0.03 (1.08%) [font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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(click on link for latest updates)
Market Updates
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.
09/08/14 Matthew Martoma, convicted SAC trader, sentenced to 9 years in prison plus forfeiture of $9.3 million, including home and bank accounts
08/03/15 Former City (London) trader Tom Hayes found guilty of rigging global Libor interest rates. Each fo eight counts carries up to 10 yr. sentence.
08/21/15 Charles Antonucci Sr, former pres. Park Ave. Bank sentenced to 2.5 years in prison for bribery, fraud, embezzlement, and attempt to steal $11MM in TARP bailout funds, as well as $37.5MM fraud on OK insurance company. To pay $54MM in restitution and give up additional $11MM.
09/21/15 Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn apologizes for VW cheating on air quality standards with emission testing avoidance device. Stock drops 20%, fines may total $18B.
09/22/15 Stewart Parnell, CEO Peanut Corp. of America, sentenced to 28 years in prison for selling salmonella-tainted peanut butter that killed nine.





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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]


22 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Monday, 5 October 2015 (Original Post) Tansy_Gold Oct 2015 OP
This just in........ Hotler Oct 2015 #1
and not a damn thing will change if corporate Dems keep getting elected. nt antigop Oct 2015 #3
Absolutely correct. nt mother earth Oct 2015 #4
You;ll need a lot more than 100 yds of rope. Fuddnik Oct 2015 #5
And. . . . . Tansy_Gold Oct 2015 #6
This message was self-deleted by its author antigop Oct 2015 #2
Paying CEOs fat bonuses for stock performance doesn't work Demeter Oct 2015 #7
Buying a Home Is About to Change Forever Demeter Oct 2015 #8
Factory Orders Hit the Skids, Last Month Revised Lower, Shipments Down 4th Time in 5 Months Demeter Oct 2015 #9
Gulf Widens Between Fed Forecasts and Signal From Futures Market Demeter Oct 2015 #10
World's Biggest Currency Trader Says Weak Jobs Means Weak Dollar Demeter Oct 2015 #13
The U.S. Still Needs 2.7 Million Jobs Demeter Oct 2015 #15
VW Chief Warns Cheating Scandal May Threaten Company's Existence Demeter Oct 2015 #11
Saudi Aramco Cuts Crude to Asia, U.S. Amid Weak Demand Demeter Oct 2015 #12
Oil Bulls Lose Faith in Recovery as Russia Adds to Global Glut Demeter Oct 2015 #14
Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC? Demeter Oct 2015 #19
10 Things Europe Does Way Better Than America BUT EUROZONE! Demeter Oct 2015 #16
ObamaCare’s Open Enrollment Period to Begin, Faces Challenge of Selling to Those Who’ve Done Math Demeter Oct 2015 #17
JOBS, THEN AND NOW Demeter Oct 2015 #18
TTP PUSHED BACK--AGAIN: Late delay as Pacific trade talks near landmark deal Demeter Oct 2015 #20
The Bastards did it. At least, they did something Demeter Oct 2015 #21
So the question becomes Punx Oct 2015 #22

Hotler

(11,353 posts)
1. This just in........
Sun Oct 4, 2015, 07:34 PM
Oct 2015

Ben Bernanke: "More execs should have gone to jail for causing Great Recession"

"I think there was a reasonably good chance that, barring stabilization of the financial system, that we could have gone into a 1930s-style depression," he says now in an interview with USA TODAY. "The panic that hit us was enormous — I think the worst in U.S. history."

"Every time I saw a bumper sticker which said, 'Where's my bailout?' it hurt," he told Capital Download.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ben-bernanke-more-execs-should-have-gone-to-jail-for-causing-great-recession/ar-AAf5liQ?li=AAa0dzB

100 yards of rope and 100 lamp post would have been a good start Mr. Bernanke. I notice you didn't lose your house or job or go wanting like millions did. You, Timmy and the bankers went on living just fine if not better. Rot in in hell Sir.


I have no hope. I see no future.

Response to Tansy_Gold (Original post)

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
7. Paying CEOs fat bonuses for stock performance doesn't work
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 04:44 AM
Oct 2015

DOESN'T WORK FOR WHOM? THE CEOS ARE DOING JUST FINE....

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/surprise--paying-ceos-for-stock-performance-doesn-t-help-companies--cornell-183854141.html

It turns out offering CEOs huge bonuses to boost shareholder returns doesn’t actually work, according to a new study from Cornell University. The analysis, done in conjunction with consultants Pearl Meyer & Partners, examined a decade’s worth of data from every company in the S&P 500. It compared companies that offer their top brass a total shareholder return (TSR) plan to those that don’t and found the increasingly popular pay plans haven't significantly boosted any of a number of key metrics.

(Total shareholder return is how well an investment in a company has done over a given period. It's a combination of the stock's price change and dividends paid. With TSR plans, managers are rewarded with shares, options, or even cash to give them a stake in how well the stock does.)


For a growing number of corporate heads, big bonuses based on stock performance is a large part of their pay. In 2004, just 17% of S&P 500 companies gave CEOs and top executives some form of a TSR plan. A decade later, nearly half of the companies in the index offered it. As for those S&P 500 CEOs that have TSR plans, it represents on average some 29% of their total direct compensation, though that percentage is a decline from 38% a decade ago. That's because as more companies adopt TSR plans, they are doing so with less weight than companies who took on these kinds of bonuses earlier. The average CEO of an S&P 500 company made $13.8 million – or 204 times their average employee – in 2014, according to job website Glassdoor.com.

Nonetheless, giving CEOs more for total shareholder return doesn't make a difference, according to the Cornell study.

“There is no strong evidence of a positive impact of TSR plans on firm performance,” wrote Hassan Enayati, Kevin Hallock, and Linda Barrington of Cornell University’s Institute for Compensation Studies.

“Despite the fact that just under 50% of S&P 500 firms have this pay metric as part of their executive compensation plans and that this pay metric is designed to align the interest of shareholders and executives,” Enayati told Yahoo Finance, “we find that there's no relationship between the pay metric and top-line business outcomes like 1-, 3-, or 5-year total shareholder return, return on equity, earnings per share growth, or revenue growth.”


Interestingly, the researchers discovered that while the number of companies paying top executives for shareholder return incentives is increasing, the size of those bonuses relative to total compensation is on the decline. According to Enayati, part of that has to do with companies decreasing the weight of total shareholder return compensation plans. “But then also the new adopters are coming in at lower weights, perhaps just to test the water,” he explained. But Enayati doesn’t rule out other performance bonuses. “While there's no evidence that this tool hits the mark, that isn't to say that other metrics shouldn't be pursued as a solid way to align those incentives,” he said.

WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT IT?
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
8. Buying a Home Is About to Change Forever
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 04:46 AM
Oct 2015
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/buying-home-change-forever-093056891.html

The process of buying a home changes dramatically on Oct. 3. Here's what you need to know about Know Before You Owe.

What Is Know Before You Owe?

That's the name the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has given to changes in the procedure for buying a home, and specifically, in obtaining a mortgage. Federal financial reform legislation, known as the Dodd-Frank Act, directed the CFPB to improve the procedures for buying a home in the wake of the 2008 housing crisis. Know Before You Owe has been a focus of the agency since its creation.

How Does It Affect Me?


There are many elements of Know Before You Owe that concern people who work in home sales, but to buyers, the most critical changes involve loan estimates and closing documents — the paperwork you receive at the beginning and the end of the mortgage application process.

When Do the Changes Take Effect?


They'll impact consumers who apply for a loan on or after Oct. 3. Mortgages that are already being processed before that date are regulated by the old rules.

How Are the Closing Documents Different?


Before the change, homebuyers received the poorly-named "HUD-1 Settlement Statement" — short for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development — at closing, when they were already busy signing dozens of forms and unlikely to spot errors. (Note: It was always possible to ask for a preliminary HUD-1 several days before closing and some mortgage lenders did provide advance copies.) The HUD-1 looks a bit like an accountant's ledger or an IRS tax form. Borrowers were also presented with a separate Truth In Lending Act (TILA) disclosure.

Both the HUD-1 and the TILA disclosure are being replaced by a single "Closing Disclosure" form. This form is still several pages long, but designed to be easier to read. The cover page includes clear representations of monthly payments, total payments, closing costs, prepayment penalties, balloon payments and potential interest rate changes during the life of the loan. Everything on page one of the document is a direct response to complaints about many practices that tripped up consumers during the housing bubble.

The rest of the document bears similarity to the old HUD-1, with borrowers' details on one side and sellers' details on the other. Late fees and other terms follow. There's an easy-to-use interactive guide to the paperwork on the CFPB website.

When Will I Get a Closing Disclosure?


That might be the most significant change. Banks, title companies or anyone else preparing for a closing will now be required to provide documents to consumers 72 hours before closing, giving them ample time for review. Real estate professionals have been very concerned about this requirement because real estate transactions have many moving parts, and this new rule requires that transaction details be finalized earlier in the process.

As is the case with all transactions, however, the more time buyers have to review paperwork, the better. Consumers should also review their credit report and credit score before starting the mortgage application process. You can check get a free credit report summary every month from Credit.com.

What Other Documents Are Changing?

At the beginning of the loan shopping process, consumers traditionally receive a "Good Faith Estimate." That form is being replaced by the simply named "Loan Estimate." The new form includes a few more details than the old one, and it should help consumers trying to shop around for the best deal.

Critically, the final page of the "Loan Estimate" includes a section called "Comparisons", which clearly lists the interest, principal and loan costs paid after five years, and a new concept called "Total Interest Percentage", which outlines the total interest paid during the life of the loan as a percentage of the amount borrowed. An interactive tool to see the "Loan Estimate" form is on the CFPB site.

Meanwhile, consumers will also receive a "Your Home Loan Toolkit" booklet when they close, which offers some additional tips about protecting the value of their investment. The CFPB has also published its "Owning a Home" guidebook online, which contains similar advice.

How Will Know Before You Know Affect the Mortgage Process?

Anyone buying a home during the next few weeks, or even months, should expect a little confusion as everyone gets used to the new process. Firms that generate closing documents must retool a lot of software to comply with the rule — that's why it was delayed from August to October. You can expect some nervous loan officers and mortgage brokers for awhile.
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
9. Factory Orders Hit the Skids, Last Month Revised Lower, Shipments Down 4th Time in 5 Months
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 04:48 AM
Oct 2015
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2015/10/factory-orders-hit-skids-last-month.html

On top of today's disastrous jobs report, comes still more weakness in the factory sector.

The US Census Bureau report on Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders shows:


  • New orders for manufactured goods in August decreased $8.2 billion or 1.7 percent to $473.0 billion.

  • Shipments, down four of the last five months, decreased $3.2 billion or 0.7 percent to $480.1 billion. This followed a 0.2 percent July decrease.

  • Unfilled orders, down following two consecutive monthly increases, decreased $2.4 billion or 0.2 percent to $1,195.0 billion.

  • Inventories, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $648.4 billion. This followed a 0.3 percent July decrease.


The last two months have been a disaster, especially the ex-transportation numbers. The June-July overall reading of 0.2% was revised lower from the initial reading of 0.4% last month...

DO TELL--MORE
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
10. Gulf Widens Between Fed Forecasts and Signal From Futures Market
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 04:50 AM
Oct 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-03/gulf-widens-between-fed-forecasts-and-signal-from-futures-market

The bond market’s doubts about the Federal Reserve’s projections for interest rates are only growing.

After Friday’s weaker-than-forecast U.S. September jobs report, traders are betting the Fed will wait until at least March before lifting its benchmark rate from near zero. What’s more, they don’t fully price in another hike until early 2017. That contrasts with the central bank’s forecast, published just over two weeks ago, that the target would reach 1.375 percent by the end of 2016.

MORE
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
13. World's Biggest Currency Trader Says Weak Jobs Means Weak Dollar
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 04:55 AM
Oct 2015

FUNNY HOW THAT HASN'T WORKED FOR THE PAST DECADE OR SO

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-03/world-s-biggest-currency-trader-says-weak-jobs-means-weak-dollar

The dollar is looking down.

Citigroup Inc., the top foreign-exchange trader by volume and one of the banks to correctly forecast a weaker-than-projected jobs report, said Friday’s data will cause the U.S. currency to depreciate. With the Federal Reserve less likely to raise interest rates amid global economic growth concern, the bank sees refuge currencies including the yen and the euro benefiting.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index declined to a two-week low after a Labor Department report showed the economy added 142,000 jobs in September, trailing forecasts of 201,000. The index was trading higher for the day just before the 8:30 a.m. Friday release of the report.

"The last trades going into the number were going the wrong way, so that basically exacerbates the impact," said Steven Englander, global head of Group-of-10 foreign exchange-strategy in New York at Citigroup. "Emerging markets are going nowhere and Europe and Japan are appreciating."

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
15. The U.S. Still Needs 2.7 Million Jobs
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 05:00 AM
Oct 2015
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-02/the-u-s-still-needs-2-7-million-jobs



a A

If the U.S. Federal Reserve is looking for reasons to increase interest rates sooner rather than later, it won’t find many in the latest employment numbers. The economy is still millions of jobs short of where it should be.

Monthly U.S. Jobs Report

The Labor Department's employment report for September suggests that turmoil in global financial markets may have taken a toll on the U.S. recovery. Nonfarm employers added an estimated 142,000 jobs, bringing the three-month average to 167,000 -- the slowest pace of growth since 2012. The separate household survey, which polls more than 100,000 individuals, actually shows a drop in employment: The unemployment rate held steady at 5.1 percent only because the number of people counted in the labor force also declined.

Deeper down, the report offers ample evidence of what Fed Chair Janet Yellen has called "slack" in the labor market. One indicator: The number of people stuck in part-time jobs, or not actively looking for work (and hence not counted as unemployed), remained unusually large by historical standards. If the unemployment rate included those people, it would be more than a percentage point higher:



A percentage point or two represents a lot of jobs. Accounting for all the people who want full-time work or are likely to rejoin the labor force, it would take about 2.7 million jobs to reduce the unemployment rate to 4.9 percent -- Fed officials' median estimate of full employment, the point beyond which inflation tends to accelerate. The number is down from 4.6 million a year ago, but still too high: MORE
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
11. VW Chief Warns Cheating Scandal May Threaten Company's Existence
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 04:51 AM
Oct 2015

I NEVER LIKED THEIR PRODUCTS, ANYWAY

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-04/volkswagen-chief-warns-of-existential-threat-of-cheating-scandal

Volkswagen AG’s designated Chairman Hans Dieter Poetsch warned managers that the diesel-emissions scandal could pose “an existence-threatening crisis for the company,” as it pleaded for public trust with full-page ads in national newspapers.

The German carmaker faces a Wednesday deadline to present a plan to fix some 2.8 million vehicles in its home market. Poetsch told managers last week he was certain the Wolfsburg, Germany-based carmaker will overcome the crisis with enough effort, according to Welt am Sonntag newspaper. ...

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
12. Saudi Aramco Cuts Crude to Asia, U.S. Amid Weak Demand
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 04:53 AM
Oct 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-04/saudi-aramco-cuts-crude-pricing-to-asia-u-s-amid-weak-demand

Saudi Arabia cut pricing for November oil sales to Asia and the U.S. as the world’s largest crude exporter seeks to keep its barrels competitive with rival suppliers amid sluggish demand.

Saudi Arabian Oil Co. reduced its official selling price for Medium grade crude to Asia next month to a discount of $3.20 a barrel below the regional benchmark, compared with a $1.30 discount for October sales, the company said Sunday in an e-mailed statement. The discount for the Medium grade to Asia, the main market for Saudi crude, widened by the most since the state-owned company made a $2 a barrel cut in February 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Brent crude, a global benchmark, tumbled almost 50 percent last year as Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members chose to protect market share instead of decreasing output to boost prices. Brent fell from more than $100 a barrel in July 2014 to less than half that amount six months later and traded below $50 a barrel on average in September. Contracts for November settlement were 40 cents higher at $48.53 a barrel on Monday at 7:19 a.m. in London.

“They needed to cut pricing to keep Saudi crude competitive with other grades,” Robin Mills, a Dubai-based analyst at Manaar Energy Consulting, said by phone. “Demand has been a bit weaker, leading to the cuts.”

MORE

ANOTHER PONZI SCHEME GONE BUST? LOOKS THAT WAY TO ME
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
14. Oil Bulls Lose Faith in Recovery as Russia Adds to Global Glut
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 04:56 AM
Oct 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-02/oil-bulls-lose-faith-in-recovery-as-russia-adds-to-global-glut

Hedge funds trimmed bullish oil bets for the first time in six weeks, losing faith in a swift recovery as Russia boosted output to the highest since the Soviet Union collapsed.

Speculators reduced their net-long position in West Texas Intermediate crude by 9.1 percent in the week ended Sept. 29, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Longs dropped from a 12-week high while shorts increased.

U.S. crude output is down 514,000 barrels a day from a four-decade high reached in June, Energy Information Administration data show. The number of rigs targeting oil in the U.S. dropped to a five year low, Baker Hughes Inc. said Oct. 2. WTI traded in the tightest range since June last month as China’s slowing economy and the highest Russian output in two decades signaled the global glut will linger.

"The U.S. producers are the only ones doing their part to reduce the global glut," John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund, said by phone. "Other countries, such as Russia, are pumping at full tilt. The cutbacks by shale producers here aren’t going to have much impact, especially given the slowing global economy."

MORE
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
19. Is Russia Plotting To Bring Down OPEC?
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 08:12 AM
Oct 2015

TURNABOUT IS FAIR PLAY....THE SAUDIS WERE TRYING TO DO BRING DOWN RUSSIA
(AT AMERICAN INSISTENCE--BUT INSTEAD, THE SAUDIS TOOK OUT THE AMERICAN FRACKING INDUSTRY! ISN'T POLITICS (AND ECONOMICS) MAGICAL?)!

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-Russia-Plotting-To-Bring-Down-OPEC.html

YVES SMITH: Yves here. Even with this post giving what looks to be an overly-generous take of the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, the intriguing part is its argument that Russia is well on its way to organizing an anti-Saudi block within OPEC. While Russia has long been allied with Iran and Venezuela, they’ve never been heavyweight international oil players by virtue of the fact that they produce high cost and not terribly desirable heavy sour crude. By contrast, Iraq, which is moving closer to Russia, has the second largest proven oil reserves and they are light sweet crude. The fact that the US spend billions in treasure and lots of American and local lives, only to have Iraq align itself with Russia (even if only on a case-by-case basis) would be a colossal geopolitical own goal.


By Dalan McEndree who has studied at the East European Institute of Berlin’s Free University and the U.S. Army Russian Institute in Garmisch, Germany (now the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies). His career has focused on the Soviet Union and Russia, and has included fifteen years in Russia as a U.S. diplomat, in business, working both for international and Russian businesses, and in consulting.

President Putin’s recent moves in the Middle East—to shore up Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria through deployment of combat aircraft, equipment, and manpower and build-out of air-, naval-, and ground-force bases, and the agreement in the last week with Iran, Iraq, and Syria on intelligence and security cooperation—could contribute to Russian efforts to combat the myriad negative pressures on Russia’s vital energy industry.

Live by Energy…

Energy is the foundation of Russia, its economy, its government, and its political system. Putin has highlighted on various occasions the contribution Russia’s mineral wealth, in particular oil and natural gas, must make for Russia to be able to sustain economic growth, promote industrial development, catch up with the developed economies, and modernize Russia’s military and military industry.

Even a casual glance at the IMF’s World Economic Outlook statistics for Russia shows the tight correlation since 1992 between GDP growth on the one hand and oil and gas output, exports, and prices on the other (economic series available here). According to the IMF’s 2015 Article Iv Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report, published August 3, oil and natural gas exports comprised 65 percent of exports, 52 percent of the Federal government budget, and 14.5 percent of GDP in 2014. Including their domestic contribution, hydrocarbons represent ~30 percent of GDP.

While oil and natural gas are crucial to Russia, Russia’s crude and natural gas are crucial to its neighbors on the Eurasian landmass. Russia supplied about 30 percent (146.6 bcm) of Europe’s natural gas in 2014, and about 25 percent of its crude (3.5 mmbbl/day) in 2013. Russia’s oil and natural gas are also important to its Asian and Central Asian neighbors.

It is not only the commodities that make Russia crucial, but its massive land-based infrastructure for their distribution throughout the Eurasian landmass....
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
16. 10 Things Europe Does Way Better Than America BUT EUROZONE!
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 07:08 AM
Oct 2015

IMHO, ONE BS ECONOMIC BDSM NO-EXIT SCENARIO CANCELS OUT ALL THE GOOD STUFF, WHICH WILL BE ELIMINATED AS PART OF THE EUROZONE'S SICK, SICK GAME. BECAUSE AUSTERITY!

WHEN IT COMES TO LETTING FASCISTS RUIN YOUR ENTIRE HISTORY, EUROPE HAS NO EQUAL, AND NO EXCUSE.

http://www.alternet.org/world/10-things-europe-does-way-better-america

The term “American exceptionalism” is often tossed around by politicians. Neocons, far-right Christian fundamentalists and members of the Republican Party in particular seem to hate it when anyone dares to suggest that some aspects of European life are superior to how we do things. But facts are facts, and the reality is that in some respects, Europe is way ahead of the United States. From health care to civil liberties to sexual attitudes, one can make a strong case for “European exceptionalism.” That is not to say that Europe isn’t confronting some major challenges in 2014: neoliberal economic policies and brutal austerity measures are causing considerable misery in Greece, Spain and other countries. The unemployment rate in Spain, the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone, stands at a troubling 26%—although Germany, Switzerland, Denmark and Iceland have lower unemployment rates than the U.S. (5.1% in Germany, 3.1.% in Switzerland, 4.6% in Iceland, 4.2% in Denmark). But problems and all, Europe continues to be one of the most desirable parts of the world. And the U.S.—a country that is in serious decline both economically and in terms of civil liberties—needs to take a close look at some of the things that European countries are doing right.

Below are 10 examples of “European exceptionalism” and areas in which Europe is way ahead of the United States:



    1. Lower Incarceration Rates

    2. Less Violent Crime Than the U.S. TPP WILL TAKE CARE OF THE GUN REGULATIONS

    3. Better Sex Education Programs, Healthier Sexual Attitudes

    4. Anti-GMO Movement Much More Widespread TPP WILL TAKE CARE OF THAT ONE

    5. Saner Approaches to Abortion

    6. More Vacation Time

    7. Universal Healthcare

    8.Greater Life Expectancy

    9. Mass Transit Systems

    10. Europeans More Likely to Speak Foreign Languages


    DETAILS AT LINK--BUT AS I CAUTION: TPP WILL UNDO ALL THIS

    AND THE ONLY REASON THE US IS PLAGUED WITH CRAZY RELIGIOUS IDIOTS IS THEY ALL CAME HERE FOR "RELIGIOUS FREEDOM"...BECAUSE THEY COULDN'T TOLERATE EUROPE, AND EUROPE COULDN'T TOLERATE THEM! PLUS, THERE WAS LAND AND JOBS....



 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
17. ObamaCare’s Open Enrollment Period to Begin, Faces Challenge of Selling to Those Who’ve Done Math
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 07:48 AM
Oct 2015
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/10/obamacares-open-enrollment-period-to-begin-faces-challenge-of-selling-to-those-whove-done-the-math.html

This year’s ObamaCare open (mandated) erollment period begins on November 1, 2015 and ends January 31, 2016. Plans and prices will be available “by late October.” Skipping over the repellently self-congratulatory material on how the totally-not-a-laughingstock-by-civilized-standards ObamaCare has managed to deliver a non-universal national health insurance program, everybody admits that this enrollment period is going to be a tough one:

HHS Secretary Says Coming Sign-up Season Will Be Toughest Yet Under Health Law


Officials are eyeing about 10.5 million people who could buy coverage through HealthCare.gov or state sites, often with federal subsidies to offset premiums, but who have resisted signing up as the law rolled out.

“Those who are still uninsured are going to be a bigger challenge,” said Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Mathews Burwell in a speech at the Howard University College of Medicine, after praising the law for pushing the rate of Americans without coverage to historic lows.

“Overall, this open enrollment is going to be tougher than last year,” she said. “But while our goals may be harder to reach, we’re working smarter to reach them,” she said. “We know Americans are depending on us and we’re doing everything we can to help them find the coverage they need.”


Let’s skip over the question of why “doing everything we can to help,” for this Democratic administration, and for the currently leading Democratic candidate, never includes even a smidgeon of consideration for the simple, rugged, and proven single payer solution. And for now, let’s skip over the question of why Burwell thinks Americans are “depending” on HHS but at the same time “resist” enrolling. When Burwell says “working smarter,” what does she mean, and what are her goals? Kaiser Health News:

Burwell said the agency’s goals for the upcoming enrollment season, which ends Jan. 31, 2016, are to “improve the consumer experience, retain our current customers and increase our enrollment.” By the end of this year, HHS expects 9.1 million individuals will have coverage through the federal and state health insurance exchanges, or marketplaces, she said. HHS officials have yet to announce an enrollment goal for 2016.


OK, Burwell hasn’t actually set any goals. To be fair, that actually could be “working smarter,” given the givens. Moving on:

To reach the approximately 10.5 million uninsured, agency officials plan to use data accumulated over the last two health law enrollment campaigns, such as information about where the uninsured live and what sorts of messages might convince them to purchase coverage, senior HHS officials said Tuesday. Email and social media campaigns that encourage people who have started their applications to finish them, or to promote awareness about the law’s financial assistance that is available to help people purchase coverage and pay out-of-pocket costs, will be key. While there’s ‘no silver bullet’ to increasing enrollment, ‘we have to keep chipping away at it,’ a senior agency official said.


Again, let’s skip over the fact that there is a “silver bullet”: Junk the Rube Goldberg device that is ObamaCare, and adopt a single payer system instead. And let’s skip over the bathetic collapse from “we were able to deliver on universal health care” (Obama, November 6, 2013) to this year’s “we have to keep chipping away at it” (with lethal effects for those “depending on us”). Where is the chipping away to be done?

Outreach and enrollment efforts will be focused on five targeted areas — Dallas, Houston, Northern New Jersey, Chicago and Miami — where there are large numbers of uninsured who qualify for the law’s financial assistance.


And again, let’s skip over the fact that consumers’s citizens’ access to life-saving health care under ObamaCare is random with respect to jurisdiction (as we showed in “Obama’s Relentless Creation of Second Class Citizens”). I mean, if you don’t live in one of those five urban areas, you’re out of luck, right? But so what, because markets. Rather, let’s ask the question:

Why would people “resist” signing up for ObamaCare?


The punditry really can’t explain. For example, FiveThirtyEight does the math. There are 33 million uninsured, of whom 7 million are non-citizen immigrants, 3.8 million are in states that did not expand Medicaid, 7.7 are between 19 and 14 (that is, on their parents policies or so-called “young invincibles“), leaving about 14 million.

It’s hard to say why these 14 million people weren’t insured, but the administration will have to figure that out if it wants to come close to the universal coverage the law intended (snort).


Six years after ObamaCare was passed, and it’s “hard to say” why everybody wouldn’t already have leaped to sign up for it. Alrighty then. Bloomberg is just as vague:

The uninsured rate needs to be pushed even lower. The people who’ve signed up for Medicaid or exchange coverage are those who have most wanted insurance; the challenge remains to persuade those who are less motivated or don’t understand their options.


Or, perhaps, are highly “motivated,” and “understand their options” all too well? Burwell:

Almost 40 percent of the uninsured who qualify for marketplace coverage earn between 139 and 250 percent of the poverty level, about $30,000 to $60,000 a year for a family of four, Burwell said. Nearly 60 percent of the uninsured are either confused about how the tax credits work or don’t know that they are available, and about half of the uninsured have less than $100 in savings, Burwell said.


Or, perhaps, are not “confused” at all?

Could it be that ObamaCare just isn’t that good a deal? Could that be why people resist enrolling? Interestingly, that’s what HHS’s internal studies are telling them, even if word hasn’t percolated out to the pundits just yet. From a June 2015 study outsourced to the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation:

Cost remains the main barrier to insurance. Those who have looked made a calculated decision based on more than just the premium. They also consider out-of-pocket expenses, deductibles, co-pays and other factors in their decision.


Imagine that! Working people making “calculated decisions”! Who would have thought?

MORE
 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
20. TTP PUSHED BACK--AGAIN: Late delay as Pacific trade talks near landmark deal
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 08:19 AM
Oct 2015

LACK OF SLEEP, CRUMMY PIZZA, AND A DOG'S BREAKFAST OF A TREATY...WHAT COULD GO WRONG? I HOPE TO GOD, EVERYTHING!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/us-trade-tpp-idUSKCN0RY0MV20151005

A dozen Pacific nations closed in on a sweeping free-trade pact on Sunday in Atlanta but failed to finalize terms on the fifth day of round-the-clock talks, dashing hopes raised by an earlier breakthrough on protections for new biotech drugs. U.S. officials, who are hosting the meeting, delayed a planned joint news conference until early Monday. That pushed a resolution of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) talks beyond the deadline set by Japan's economy minister Akira Amari. On Saturday, Amari had said the next 24 hours would be a make-or-break period for the talks. After five years of negotiations, many officials had described this round as the best chance for an agreement, so failure to strike a deal in Atlanta would plunge the future of the talks into uncertainty.

Australian Trade Minister Andrew Robb said the delay on Sunday came as other TPP partners reviewed the proposed terms of a compromise on the monopoly period available for drug companies that develop new drugs known as biologics. New Zealand negotiators also pressed on Sunday for greater access to overseas markets for its dairy exports, people involved in the talks said. "The thing that's missing is (an agreement) on dairy market access," one official said. The sudden stall in the pace of talks came after organizers had set up a platform in the conference center decorated with flags of the TPP delegations for the announcement of a deal. By Sunday night, a U.S. government website that had been scheduled to livestream the ministerial news conference was carrying a banner saying "delayed pending further notice". On Sunday morning, Amari said he had called Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to notify him that a deal was within sight....



The issue of protections for new biologic medicines like Genentech's Avastin cancer therapy has pitted the United States against Australia and five other countries. The United States has pushed for longer monopoly protections for pharmaceutical companies to encourage innovation. Australia has countered that such measures would strain national healthcare budgets and keep life-saving medicines from patients who cannot afford them. The United States provides 12 years of exclusivity for biologic drugs. Australia has insisted on five years of protection to control healthcare costs. A two-track compromise hammered out by Australia and the United States would set a minimum threshold of five years during which drug makers would have exclusive rights to clinical data behind new drugs while adding an additional protection of several more years as applications for competing drugs are reviewed, people involved said. Under a second track, pharmaceutical companies would have eight years of exclusive rights to a new product outright in some countries, they said. It was still unclear how that set of standards would influence pricing for future drugs. It was also unclear if other delegations, including Peru and Chile, would endorse the proposal.

Separately, the United States and Japan had reached agreement in principle on trade in autos and auto parts in talks that also included Canada and Mexico. That agreement is expected to give U.S. automakers, led by General Motors (GM.N) and Ford (F.N), extended tariff protection against low-cost pickup truck imports from Asia, people briefed on the talks have said. But it would also give Japan’s auto industry, led by Toyota Motor (7203.T), a freer hand to source parts from Asia, including from plants outside the TPP-zone like China, on vehicles sold in North America. A "rule of origin" would stipulate that only 45 percent of a vehicle would have to be sourced from within the TPP, down from the equivalent ratio of 62.5 percent under NAFTA, officials have said.

The announcement of a deal on Monday would mark the start of what could be a close-fought battle to ratify it in Congress....

MORE SAUSAGE-MAKING AT LINK

THE THING IS--PEOPLE EAT SAUSAGE BECAUSE THEY LIKE THE TASTE.

WHO IS GOING TO LIKE THIS?

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
21. The Bastards did it. At least, they did something
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 02:18 PM
Oct 2015

and now we are down to fighting it, nation by nation...

I knew it was going to be a crazy day, I just didn't know how bad and far-reaching the craziness was.

Want to bet they told the negotiators they couldn't go home, and would only get cold pizza to eat until they caved? All so the empty suit in the WH could have his "legacy". I hope he chokes on it. Boehner left just in time, IMO.

Punx

(446 posts)
22. So the question becomes
Mon Oct 5, 2015, 03:50 PM
Oct 2015

When does the 60, or is it 90 day review period start where the whole agreement is supposed to be open to congress and the public to read and review. Remember that promise? Wouldn’t surprise me if it is forgotten. No matter how cynical I get, it never seems to be enough.

I’m sure the corporate media will start the PR push any second now.

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