Weekend Economists: Oh, Come, Oh Come Emanuel December 11-13, 2015

[Proserpina]

If one had to pick a Democrat (an ostensible one) to put up against GOP's bad guy Kkkarl Rove, it would have to be Rahm Emanuel.

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51oDeJ-%2BeUL._AC_UL320_SR214,320_.jpg

Recently re-elected Mayor of Chicago, Rahm Israel Emanuel (born November 29, 1959) is an American politician who serves as the 55th Mayor of Chicago. A member of the Democratic Party, Emanuel was elected in 2011, becoming Chicago's first Jewish mayor. He was re-elected on April 7, 2015.

Born in Chicago, Emanuel is a graduate of Sarah Lawrence College and Northwestern University. Working early in his career in Democratic politics, Emanuel was appointed as director of the finance committee for Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign. In 1993, he joined the Clinton administration, where he served as the Assistant to the President for Political Affairs and as the Senior Advisor to the President for Policy and Strategy before resigning in 1998. Beginning a career in finance, Emanuel worked at the investment bank Wasserstein Perella & Co. from 1998 for 2 1/2 years and served on the board of directors of Freddie Mac.

In 2002, Emanuel ran for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives vacated by Rod Blagojevich, who had resigned to run for Governor of Illinois. Emanuel won the first of three terms representing Illinois's 5th congressional district, a seat he held from 2003 to 2009. During his tenure in the House, Emanuel held two Democratic leadership positions, serving as the Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee from 2005 to 2007 and as the Chair of the House Democratic Caucus from 2007 to 2009. After the 2008 presidential election, President Barack Obama appointed Emanuel to serve as White House Chief of Staff.

In October 2010, Emanuel resigned as chief of staff to run as a candidate in Chicago's 2011 mayoral election. Because of questions over his eligibility to run for mayor, Emanuel's candidacy was initially rejected by the Illinois First District Appellate Court, though he was later found eligible to run in a unanimous decision by the Supreme Court of Illinois. Emanuel won with 55% of the vote over five other candidates in the nonpartisan mayoral election, succeeding 22-year incumbent Richard M. Daley. Although Emanuel did not obtain an absolute majority in the February 2015 mayoral election, he defeated Cook County Board Commissioner Jesús "Chuy" García in the April 7 runoff election...https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahm_Emanuel

Rahm's even a published author! His ghost-written non-fiction (or maybe not)

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/41d5TVHWTAL._SX335_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg

http://www.amazon.com/The-Plan-Big-Ideas-America/dp/1586484125 is averaging barely 2.5 stars on Amazon. Haven't read it myself....I like Bernie's plans so much better! Used copies of The Plan are available in hardcover for 1 measly penny!



And he kept that promise! I'd like to dedicate this political ditty to Hizzoner, as it fits this time of year: (lyrics are mine)

Oh come, Oh come Emanuel, and emigrate to Israel
That mourns in lonely exile here until the son of Benjamin appear.
Rejoice! Rejoice! Emanuel shall come to you, O Israel!

Oh, come, our wiseguy from on high, who ordered all things mightily;
To us the path of knowledge show, and teach us in her ways to go.
Rejoice! Rejoice! Emanuel shall come to you, O Israel!

Oh, come, oh, come, our lord of might, who to your tribes on Sinai's height
In ancient times gave holy law, in cloud and majesty and awe.
Rejoice! Rejoice! Emanuel shall come to you, O Israel!

Oh, come O son of Marsha's stem, from every foe deliver them
That trust your mighty power to save; bring them in victory through the grave.
Rejoice! Rejoice! Emanuel shall come to you, O Israel!

Early life and family

Emanuel's grandfather was a Romanian Jew from Moldova. The surname Emanuel (Hebrew: עמנואל , which means "God with us", was adopted by their family in honor of his father's brother Emanuel Auerbach, who was killed in 1933 in an altercation with Arabs in Jerusalem.

Emanuel's father, Benjamin M. Emanuel, is a Jerusalem-born pediatrician at Michael Reese Hospital who was once a member of the Irgun, a Jewish paramilitary organization that operated in Mandate Palestine. His mother, Marsha (née Smulevitz), is the daughter of a West Side Chicago union organizer who worked in the civil rights movement, and briefly owned a local rock and roll club and later became an adherent of Benjamin Spock's writings. Emanuel's parents met during the 1950s in Chicago.

Emanuel was born on November 29, 1959 in Chicago, Illinois. His first name, Rahm (רם means high or lofty in Hebrew. He has been described by his older brother Ezekiel, an oncologist and bioethicist at the University of Pennsylvania, as "quiet and observant" as a child. Ari, the youngest, is the CEO of William Morris Endeavor, a talent agency with headquarters in Beverly Hills, California; he also has a younger adopted sister, Shoshana

Did you know that Rahm suffered an accident with a meat slicer, and now he literally cannot give a flying finger, to use a euphemism? While a high school student working part-time at an Arby's restaurant, Emanuel severely cut his right middle finger on a meat slicer, which was later infected from swimming in Lake Michigan. His finger was partially amputated due to the severity of the infection.

So, here's a little ditty I wrote for Rahm, for Hannukah:

Rahm will spin, spin spin spin
Still the press won't do him in
Everyone lives in fear
Emanuel is coming near
Flashing lights now appear
Lighting up this time of year
Lighting up this time of year
As the miracle is clear

Emanuel is known for his "take-no-prisoners style" that has earned him the nickname "Rahmbo." Emanuel sent a dead fish in a box to a pollster who was late delivering polling results. On the night after the 1992 election, angry at Democrats and Republicans who "betrayed" them in the 1992 election, Emanuel stood up at a celebratory dinner with colleagues from the campaign and began plunging a stake into the table and began rattling off names while shouting "Dead! Dead! Dead!".

Before Tony Blair gave a pro-Clinton speech during the impeachment crisis, Emanuel reportedly screamed at Blair "Don't fuck this up!" while Clinton was present. Blair and Clinton both burst into laughter. However, by 2007 friends of Emanuel were saying that he has "mellowed out". Stories of his personal style have entered the popular culture, inspiring articles and websites that chronicle these and other quotes and incidents. The character Josh Lyman in The West Wing was said to be based on Emanuel, though executive producer Lawrence O'Donnell denied this...

[Proserpina]

1. Rahm's had several spins on the revolving door, as part of the Clinton Corruption campiagn

Career in finance

After serving as an advisor to Bill Clinton, in 1998 Emanuel resigned from his position in the Clinton administration and joined the investment banking firm Wasserstein Perella, where he worked for 2 1/2 years. Although he did not have an MBA degree or prior banking experience, he became a managing director at the firm’s Chicago office in 1999, and according to Congressional disclosures, made $16.2 million in his two-and-a-half-years as a banker. At Wasserstein Perella, he worked on eight deals, including the acquisition by Commonwealth Edison of Peco Energy and the purchase by GTCR Golder Rauner of the SecurityLink home security unit from SBC Communications.

Freddie Mac

Emanuel was named to the Board of Directors of Freddie Mac by President Clinton in 2000. He earned at least $320,000 during his time there, including later stock sales. During Emanuel's time on the board, Freddie Mac was plagued with scandals involving campaign contributions and accounting irregularities. The Obama Administration rejected a request under the Freedom of Information Act to review Freddie Mac board minutes and correspondence during Emanuel's time as a director. The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight later accused the board of having "failed in its duty to follow up on matters brought to its attention." Emanuel resigned from the board in 2001 before his first bid for Congress.

[Proserpina]

2. The Fix: Rahm Emanuel is in deep, deep trouble WaPo

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/12/10/rahm-emanuel-is-running-out-of-options-and-time-in-chicago/

Two weeks after a video was released of a Chicago policeman shooting a black teenager 16 times, the mayor of Chicago on Wednesday apologized for it and took some measure of responsibility.

"I'm sorry" for the shooting of Laquan McDonald, which "happened on my watch," Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D) told the full Chicago City Council in a rare speech.

For the next 40 minutes, Emanuel delivered a "genuine" and "heartfelt" speech about police brutality and city violence that seemed "real," said critics and supporters alike who heard it, according to the Chicago Tribune.

But the reaction on the street was a very different story. Emanuel cried "crocodile tears," one protester said. The only people who believe it will be his "lap-dog city council," another said, according to the Tribune. They carried signs calling on Emanuel and his leadership team to resign. And more and more — despite his speech Wednesday— it appears resigning could indeed be what Emanuel will be forced to do in order to restore Chicagoans' faith in their government. (Already, an Illinois state lawmaker is starting the process to recall him.) Thanks in part to a series of missteps by the mayor after the shooting, exacerbated by a longer-term failure to address more systemic problems with Chicago's police department, Emanuel appears to have lost much of the city's trust. His approval rating has hit a record low of 18 percent, and 51 percent of residents think he should resign, according to a new poll from the Illinois Observer...

[Proserpina]

3. Even Rahm Emanuel Supporters Having Doubts About Their Man

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/even-rahm-emanuel-supporters-having-doubts-about-their-man-n478066

As protests continued in Chicago Thursday following the delayed release of video showing the shooting of Laquan McDonald, voters on the city's North Side, who overwhelmingly supported Mayor Rahm Emanuel in last April's election, have doubts about his ability to address corruption and continue leading the city.

"I do not think that Rahm is doing all that he can to fix the situation." said Colleen Fry, who lives in Chicago's Lincoln Park neighborhood, on the city's North Side, where Emanuel has had an abundance of support. "I'm not sure what the answer is besides resigning and having Anita Alvarez resign also, but that is not going to happen."

Eighty-three percent of voters in the city's 43rd Ward, which includes Lincoln Park and the Lakeview neighborhood, voted for Emanuel in the last election, according to the Chicago Board of Elections.

But even the mayor's usual support base questions whether or not he is doing enough to smooth things over in a city that has been plagued by corrupt politics for decades...

[Proserpina]

4. Rahm's got ONE steadfast fangirl, though---Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton supports Rahm Emanuel By Jim in Chicago

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/12/11/1459255/-Hillary-Clinton-supports-Rahm-Emanuel

Once again, Hillary’s lack of a moral compass is showing:

Hillary Clinton Voices Confidence in Mayor Emanuel Amid Calls for His Resignation

But hey, what’s the big deal about burying the evidence of a police killing for 13 months? Rahm had an election to win, and that’s all that matters.

I honestly don’t understand how any true progressive can support Hillary for the nomination...

Hillary Clinton Voices Confidence in Mayor Emanuel Amid Calls for His Resignation

Source: http://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/ward-room/Hillary-Clinton-Voices-Support-for-Mayor-Emanuel-360859961.html#ixzz3u2v1IE2h

As activists across Chicago call for Mayor Rahm Emanuel's resignation, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton voiced her support for the mayor, who has known the Clintons for years. At an event in Fort Dodge, Iowa, last week, Clinton told reporters she has confidence in Emanuel, despite the fallout from the release of the dashcam video showing the fatal shooting of 17-year-old Laquan McDonald by a Chicago police officer, Bloomberg's John McCormick reported.

"He loves Chicago, and I'm confident that he's going to do everything he can to get to the bottom of these issues and take whatever measures are necessary to remedy them," Clinton said, according to McCormick.

Since the video was released about two weeks ago, Emanuel has fired Chicago Police Supt. Garry McCarthy. This week, the head of the Independent Police Review Authority and the Chicago Police Department's chief of detectives also resigned. Many of the protesters who called for McCarthy's resignation are now calling for the resignations of Cook County State's Attorney Anita Alvarez, and some are calling for Emanuel to step down, too. Both Alvarez and Emanuel indicated they have no plans to do so.

Last week, Clinton called for a federal investigation into the Chicago Police Department's tactics, adding her voice to the growing crowd of those who wanted the Department of Justice involved. Clinton spokesperson Brian Fallon told The Chicago Tribune Wednesday that Clinton is "deeply troubled" by the shooting of McDonald and the "outstanding questions" raised by it.

Unlike rival Bernie Sanders' statement calling for the Justice Department investigation, which was released the next day, Clinton did not reference Emanuel or any other top Chicago officials in her statement. In his statement, Sanders asked that any "officials" involved in a possible cover-up of the McDonald case resign. On Monday, U.S. Attorney General Loretta announced the Justice Department has launched a civil "pattern and practice investigation" into the Chicago Police Department to determine whether fatal shooting of McDonald was part of a larger widespread pattern of officers violating civil rights.

No doubt there's a quid pro quo in there, somewhere, if not more than one

[Proserpina]

5. Rahm and the 2008 Presidential election

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rahm_Emanuel

Emanuel declared in April 2006 that he would support Hillary Rodham Clinton should she pursue the presidency in 2008. Emanuel remained close to Clinton since leaving the White House, talking strategy with her at least once a month as chairman of the DCCC.

However, Emanuel's loyalties came into conflict when his home-state Senator, Barack Obama, expressed interest in the race. Asked in January 2007, about his stance on the Democratic presidential nomination, he said: "I'm hiding under the desk. I'm very far under the desk, and I'm bringing my paper and my phone."

Emanuel remained neutral in the race until June 4, 2008, the day after the final primary contests, when he endorsed Obama.

White House Chief of Staff

On November 6, 2008, Emanuel accepted the position of White House Chief of Staff for US President Barack Obama. He resigned his congressional seat effective January 2, 2009. A special primary to fill his vacated congressional seat was held on March 3, 2009, and the special general election on April 7. John Fritchey, a candidate for that seat, said at a forum that Emanuel had told him he may be interested in running for the seat again in the future.

Some Republican leaders criticized Emanuel's appointment because they believed it went against Obama's campaign promises of less divisive politics, given Emanuel's reputation as a partisan Democrat. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham disagreed, saying: "This is a wise choice by President-elect Obama. He's tough but fair, honest, direct and candid."

Ira Forman, executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council, said that the choice indicated that Obama would not listen to the "wrong people" regarding the U.S.–Israel relationship. Some commentators opined that Emanuel would be good for the Israeli–Palestinian peace process because if Israeli leaders made excuses for not dismantling settlements, Emanuel would be tough and pressure the Israelis to comply. Some Palestinians expressed dismay at Emanuel's appointment.

Weeks after accepting the appointment, Emanuel participated on a panel of corporate chief executive officers sponsored by the Wall Street Journal and said, "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste." The quote was taken out of context by some commentators as evidence "...that the left supposedly wants to exploit circumstances to ram its agenda through." Emanuel explained later, "...what I said was, never allow a good crisis to go to waste when it's an opportunity to do things that you had never considered, or that you didn't think were possible."

In a 2009 article in The New York Times, Emanuel was characterized as being "perhaps the most influential chief of staff of a generation".

He has a reputation for his no-holds-barred negotiation style that involves "his share of shouting and cursing". Ezekiel Emanuel has written, "The impatient, pushy Emanuel style is so well known that during a recent job interview I was asked, point-blank, whether I had the level-headed temperament the position required..... As obvious to our flaws are to others, it's difficult to recognize them in ourselves."

At a closed-door meeting in the White House with liberal activists, Emanuel called them "fucking retarded" for planning to run TV ads attacking conservative Democrats who didn't support Obama's health-care overhaul. In February 2010, Emanuel apologized to organizations for the mentally handicapped for using the word "retarded." He expressed his regret to Tim Shriver, the chief executive of the Special Olympics after the remark was reported in an article by The Wall Street Journal about growing liberal angst at Emanuel. The apology came as former Alaska Governor and conservative activist Sarah Palin, on her Facebook page, called on President Obama to fire Emanuel.

As Chief of Staff, Emanuel was known for his good sense of humor. During a staff meeting, when Chief Technology Officer Aneesh Chopra gave uniformly upbeat reports, Emanuel is said to have looked at him and said: "Whatever you're taking, I want some."

Emanuel had a hand in war strategy, political maneuvering, communications and economic policy. Bob Woodward wrote in Obama's Wars that Emanuel made a habit of telephoning CIA Director Leon Panetta and asking about the lethal drone strikes aimed at Al Qaeda, asking "Who did we get today?"

In 2010, Emanuel was reported to have conflicts with other senior members of the president's team and ideological clashes over policy. He was also the focal point of criticism from left-leaning Democrats for the administration's perceived move to the center. By September 2010, with the Democrats anticipating heavy losses in midterm elections, this was said to precipitate Emanuel's departure as Chief of Staff.

[Fuddnik]

7. Maybe Rahm helped her bury Vince Fosters body!

However, I'm sure some won't appreciate my demented sense of humor.

[Proserpina]

6. After that, I need a shower, at least. We return to the regularly scheduled Weekend

Post the Advent, Hannukah, or other holiday music of your choice, along with any actual news...

and may your weekend be merry and bright! We are going to hit 60F here in the Midwest.

With two new furnaces, and new tires, our family have successfully prevented winter from knocking on the door....speaking of which, getting new doors installed in the weeks to come. They've only been sitting in the garage since....October.

Housekeeping...it's expensive. The only other major event will be windows....some year! For now, insulated drapes work just fine.

For my friend Krishna:

[hamerfan]

8. Musical Interlude

The Sound Of Silence performed by Disturbed:

[DemReadingDU]

9. Stone Lion Capital Partners Suspends Redemptions in Credit Hedge Funds

12/11/15 Stone Lion Capital Partners Suspends Redemptions in Credit Hedge Funds
Hedge-fund firm gets hit by wave of withdrawal requests, as junk-bond market comes under pressure

Stone Lion Capital Partners L.P. said it suspended redemptions in its credit hedge funds after many investors asked for their money back.

The move, nearly unprecedented in the hedge-fund industry since the financial crisis, is the latest example of the sudden crunch facing traders across Wall Street looking to sell beaten-down positions. On Thursday, Third Avenue Management LLC stunned investors with the announcement it was barring withdrawals while it liquidates a high-yield bond mutual fund, a move that intensified a selloff sweeping the junk-bond world.

Stone Lion, founded in 2008 by Bear Stearns & Co. Inc. veterans Gregory Hanley and Alan Mintz, is in a similar malaise, facing heavy losses on so-called distressed investments including junk bonds, post reorganization equities and other special situations, people familiar with the matter said.

Its oldest set of credit funds, which manage $400 million altogether, received “substantial redemption requests,” precipitating the decision, the firm said in a statement. The firm didn’t give a time frame for when the money would be returned.

more...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/stone-lion-capital-partners-suspends-redemptions-in-its-oldest-fund-1449870782

[Fuddnik]

10. Who woulda thunk it?

Just because they ran one outfit into the ground, doesn't mean the can't do it again.

[Proserpina]

11. I don't know how far we will get this weekend before the website goes dark for the upgrade

but we must try, anyway.

[MattSh]

12. Crimea Blackout: Ukraine Was Just Inches Away From a New Chernobyl

The author is a popular Russian blogger. This article originally appeared at his LJ blog . Translated by Svetlana Kyrzhaly and Rhod Mackenzie

Few people attached any significance to the fact that when Crimea’s power lines were cut, this could have provoked a Chernobyl type accident at the South-Ukrainian nuclear power plant in Nikolaev. We were lucky that the workers of the station were able to turn on the emergency electricity supply system for a few hours.

The lack of gas and coal in the Ukraine could lead to accidents at other power plants, leaving metropolitan areas without heat and light. This is obvious even to amateurs, but unfortunately, the amateurs in Kiev could cause a catastrophe not only for Ukrainians, but also for the residents of neighboring countries, including Russians, and involving nuclear power plants.

There are four of these in the Ukraine, totaling 16 units, or 16 potential atomic bombs. Experts say it’s a miracle that another Chernobyl type catastrophe hasn’t already happened.

Vasily Volga, a Ukrainian politician who is also a nuclear energy specialist said:

“When these so called “activists” brought down power lines, the South-Ukrainian nuclear power plant was unable to produce a normal amount of electricity. I will be receiving details on what exactly happened, but from what shift supervisors said, only the professionalism and dedication of the staff prevented a catastrophe“.

-----> http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/crimea-blackout-ukraine-was-just-inches-away-new-chernobyl/ri11798

Oh, and let's not forget that this plant, among others, using Westinghouse fuel rods in a reactor designed for Russian fuel rods. There have already been incompatibility reports. And also let's not forget who was running the State Department when this contract was approved. Hillary Clinton.

[Proserpina]

13. That's horrible news!

I don't suppose anyone's told Victoria "Secret" Nuland this basic technology fact.

[Ghost Dog]

22. That's a long way from Crimea. Blackouts affected a wider area,

then?

[Proserpina]

14. Warren Buffett cuts Munich Re stake to below 5 percent

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-munich-re-group-berkshire-hatha-idUSKBN0TU2TK20151211?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Warren Buffett has cut his stake in German reinsurer Munich Re (MUVGn.DE) again, after warning earlier this year that prospects for the reinsurance industry had turned gloomier.

Buffett cut his holding to 4.6 percent from 9.7 percent previously, a regulatory filing by Munich Re showed late on Friday.

Buffet's companies Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKa.N) and National Indemnity Company had cut their holding in Munich Re from around 12 percent in September.

In May, Buffet told Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that the reinsurance business was "unlikely to be as good as it was".

getting ready for the total collapse of the euro and the eurozone...

[Proserpina]

15. Goldman reigns supreme in record M&A year

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-dow-m-a-goldman-sachs-idUSKBN0TU2SV20151211?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

As iconic brands are snapped up and corporations merged and swallowed in a record-breaking whirl of deals, there has been one constant: Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N).

The Wall Street firm is once again top dog in the global M&A rankings, having advised on transactions worth close to $1.7 trillion this year, more than the annual economic output of Australia, including Friday's $130 billion tie-up between U.S. chemical giants DuPont (DD.N) and Dow Chemical Co (DOW.N).

Goldman's No 1 status comes despite the bank having lost several veteran bankers this year, including Gordon Dyal, its former M&A chief and Jack Levy, one of four global co-chairmen of M&A, and reflects the enduring success of its partnership model, 15 years after the company went public....

[Proserpina]

16. Wall St. drops as oil's multi-year low adds to investor fears

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-stocks-idUSKBN0TU1EF20151211?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 ending its worst week since August, as plunging crude oil prices compounded investor nervousness on expectations for the first U.S. interest rate hike in nearly a decade. Oil dragged down market as a whole, as investors worried whether a weakness in commodities signaled a broader slowdown. Furthermore, investors were worried about declines in China's yuan and in high-yield debt markets.

"Positioning has been clearly along the lines of taking risk exposure off," said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities in Los Angeles.

Dennis Dick, head of markets structure at Bright Trading LLC in Las Vegas: "If you had a large oil position you need to raise cash, probably from some of your winners," he said.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 309.54 points, or 1.76 percent, to 17,265.21
with every component in the index ending down.
S&P 500 lost 39.86 points, or 1.94 percent, to 2,012.37
Nasdaq Composite dropped 111.71 points, or 2.21 percent, to 4,933.47.

For the week, the S&P 500 fell 3.8 percent in its worst week since Aug. 21. The Dow fell 3.3 percent and Nasdaq dropped 4.1 percent for the week...Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 2,745 to 376, for a 7.30-to-1 ratio on the downside; on the Nasdaq, 2,388 issues fell and 448 advanced for a 5.33-to-1 ratio favoring decliners...About 8.3 billion stocks traded on U.S. exchanges compared with the 6.98 billion average for the last 20 sessions, according to Thomson Reuters data...Adobe Systems (ADBE.O) was the S&P 500's sole new 52-week high for the day. The index had 43 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 19 new highs and 187 new lows.

Small caps sold off as well. The Russell 2000 index .RUT fell 5.1 percent for the week, its biggest weekly percentage decline since May 2012.

The continued plunge in oil prices added to investor uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected rate hike after the U.S. central bank's Dec. 15-16 meeting.

Brent futures LCOc1 fell to an almost seven-year low, while U.S. crude futures CLc1 fell to just above $35 a barrel after the International Energy Agency said it expected the supply glut to worsen in 2016 as demand slows and OPEC shows no signs of slowing production in its fight for market share...Tracking oil prices, the S&P energy index .SPNY fell 3.4 percent, leading the decliners among major S&P sectors. The index has lost 11 percent since the beginning of the month in its worst month since September 2011.

...Adding to the somber mood, China's yuan currency CNY= fell to its lowest in 4-1/2 years on concerns about the country's slowing economy and expectations of a U.S. rate hike.

[Proserpina]

17. The Economy Is Improving, So Washington Has Decided It's Time To Screw You

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/economy-improving-screw-you_566b06a8e4b009377b24c556?utm_hp_ref=business&ir=Business&section=business

Congress appears to think the U.S. economy has improved so much that it’s time to turn the screws on American households...Convinced that consumers and household borrowers needed more protection from the financial industry in the aftermath of the financial crisis, Congress and the Obama administration restricted the use of so-called “gotcha” credit card fees and created a new federal agency devoted to protecting consumers from unscrupulous financial companies. But with the U.S. economic expansion in its seventh year and the unemployment rate poised to drop below 5 percent, Washington policymakers are discontinuing aid to household borrowers and paring back key protections -- much to the delight of creditors.

Consider three recent examples:

On Nov. 2, President Barack Obama signed into law a bill that allows Department of Education loan contractors to bombard federal student loan borrowers’ cell phones with texts, pre-recorded messages and autodialed calls without borrowers’ consent, gutting a key consumer protection. Harassing borrowers in this manner won't save the government much money: The White House estimates the proposal will generate just $12 million annually in additional revenue. The Congressional Budget Office projects the federal government will collect even less -- below $500,000 annually, or a bit more than 1/100,000th of 1 percent of the government’s fiscal year 2015 revenue.

On Dec. 4, Obama signed into law a provision that forces the Internal Revenue Service to use private debt collectors to largely recoup uncollectible delinquent tax bills from low-income Americans. The IRS ended a similar program in 2009 after concluding that the federal government spent more money administering the program than it actually collected. National Taxpayer Advocate Nina Olson called it a “failure.”

Now, lawmakers may be on the verge of enacting a provision that would bail out for-profit college chain Education Management Corporation in a dispute with some of its creditors, just one month after the company settled federal and state allegations that it had cheated taxpayers out of at least $11 billion in a years-long scheme. Yet not one cent of relief for EDMC's allegedly defrauded former students would accompany that bailout.

“We’re still climbing out of a recession and Congress is attacking the very pillars we put in place to help us climb out of the recession,” said Ed Mierzwinski, who leads consumer advocacy efforts for U.S. PIRG, the Federation of State Public Interest Research Groups. “They’ve turned their back on American consumers and borrowers.”

bad luck stories at link

[Proserpina]

18. Crude Is Approaching the Break-Even Rate for the US

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-approaching-break-even-rate-135527151.html


Break-even for different countries

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/OSJHJ4cndZSmtr.Un4mh_Q--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3NfbGVnbztxPTg1O3c9MzAw/

Crude is below $40 per barrel. It’s already below the break-even rate for Brazil and Canada. The break-even rate for the US is near $36.20. The costs only include the capital expenditure and operational expenditure. Rystad Energy compiled the data. It published the data on November 23, 2015. Crude oil mainly fell due to oversupply in OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) nations. However, this made life difficult for US-based upstream companies.

The likely impact can be seen in the decreased capital expenditure and budgets for different upstream companies. It will also include laying off employees.

The above graph shows the break-even rate for some of the world’s largest crude oil producers. OPEC’s prominent suppliers like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have costs below $10 per barrel. Saudi Arabia accounts for 15.7% of the world’s total crude oil reserve. This shows how far the price war can continue to retain market share.


Hedging can minimize losses to a certain extent

Upstream companies usually hedge their open position with available crude derivatives. This minimizes the impact due to fluctuating crude oil prices. If crude remains below $40 for a longer period, it can increase the stress on upstream companies’ financials.

[Proserpina]

19. US Life Expectancy Flat for Third Year

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/12/us-life-expectancy-flat-for-third-year.html

Yves here. This is a short but deceptively important post. The fact that life expectancy in the US is no longer rising, in a time of economic growth, is yet another sign of underlying societal decay...There are underlying factors that should in theory lead to longer life expectancies, such as fewer smokers in the population. Similarly, cancer rates are falling. And we have supposedly better access overall to health care thanks to Obamacare. But offsetting that are the rise of diabetes, and most important, rising income disparity and weakening social bonds. As we’ve pointed out repeatedly, income disparity has high health costs, even for the rich. From one of our very first posts, in 2007, quoting Michael Prowse in the Financial Times: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/01/happiness-health-and-inequality.html

Those who would deny a link between health and inequality must first grapple with the following paradox. There is a strong relationship between income and health within countries. In any nation you will find that people on high incomes tend to live longer and have fewer chronic illnesses than people on low incomes.

Yet, if you look for differences between countries, the relationship between income and health largely disintegrates. Rich Americans, for instance, are healthier on average than poor Americans, as measured by life expectancy. But, although the US is a much richer country than, say, Greece, Americans on average have a lower life expectancy than Greeks. More income, it seems, gives you a health advantage with respect to your fellow citizens, but not with respect to people living in other countries….

Once a floor standard of living is attained, people tend to be healthier when three conditions hold: they are valued and respected by others; they feel ‘in control’ in their work and home lives; and they enjoy a dense network of social contacts. Economically unequal societies tend to do poorly in all three respects: they tend to be characterised by big status differences, by big differences in people’s sense of control and by low levels of civic participation….

Unequal societies, in other words, will remain unhealthy societies – and also unhappy societies – no matter how wealthy they become. Their advocates – those who see no reason whatever to curb ever-widening income differentials – have a lot of explaining to do.

Of course, given Lambert’s relentless documentation of the problems with Obamacare, you could also see the stalling out of life expectance increases as reflecting presumed continued gains for the better off, and the success of the neoliberal prescription, “Die faster!” for the rest.

By Bruce Webb. Originally published at Angry Bear: http://angrybearblog.com/2015/12/us-life-expectancy-flat-for-third-year.html?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=us-life-expectancy-flat-for-third-year

US life expectancy flat for third year http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/12/9/us-life-expectancy-flat-for-third-year.html

Life expectancy in the United States has stalled for three straight years, the government announced Wednesday.

A child born last year can expect to make it to 78 years and 9 1/2 months — the same prediction made for the previous two years.

In most of the years since World War II, life expectancy in the U.S. has inched up —- thanks largely to medical advances, public health campaigns and better nutrition and education. The last time it was stuck for three years was in the mid-1980s.

What does this mean for the future solvency of Social Security? Beats the crap out of me. But it sure casts doubt on all those who preach “demography is destiny” and “we are all living longer so work until you are 70?.

On a more mathy note small changes in input into Social Security models can have amazing effects on output, particularly over 75 year actuarial projections. Tweak some mortality and immigration assumptions and results change dramatically. We don’t even have to go the MJ.ABW. Though More Jobs. At Better Wages would itself have some outsized effects.

[Proserpina]

20. Russia will not leave IMF after debt rule change, minister says

at least, not yet...Never say never!

http://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-imf-idINKBN0TT29620151210

Russia has no plan to cancel its membership in the International Monetary Fund after the organisation changed its operating rules in a way that may support Ukraine in a debt dispute with Russia, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Thursday.

A default by Kiev on $3 billion of debt owed to Moscow on Dec. 20 would have put its IMF-led $40 billion bailout at risk. But the IMF on Tuesday changed its rules to allow it to keep supporting countries even if they fail to repay official debt, prompting Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to accuse the multilateral institution of meddling and say the decision was politically motivated. But Siluanov said that Russia did not plan to leave the Fund and that in general the IMF was conducting the "right policy."

"We are one of the Fund's key members. Despite the difficult situation that has happened, we don't consider it necessary to leave the Fund," Siluanov said.

"The IMF is conducting a right policy aimed at supporting the balance of payments, budget of countries that need financial help ... This is a very important and necessary institution, especially during current uneasy times for the global economy," Siluanov said.

IMF General Counsel Sean Hagan said the change fixed a long-identified shortcoming.

"The fact that this reform takes place in the context of a case that illustrates this general weakness I don't think in any way undermines the value of the reform or the legitimacy of the reform," he told reporters on a conference call to explain the new policy.

Siluanov said earlier this week that Ukraine had 10 days after the debt falls due either to repay the $3 billion or accept President Vladimir Putin's restructuring proposal; otherwise Russia would take Ukraine to court. Ukraine has separately reached an agreement with private creditors to restructure its sovereign and sovereign-guaranteed debt to plug a $15 billion funding gap under the IMF-led $40 billion bailout programme. It insists the debt owed to Moscow is commercial, a point on which Russia disagrees.

*******************************************************

In late 2013, Russia extended a $3 billon loan to Ukraine under its former president Viktor Yanukovich. Public protests against Yanukovich's swing away from the European Union towards deeper ties with Russia led to unrest and eventually forced Yanukovich to flee.

In an article for the Financial Times newspaper, Siluanov said Russia, "just as America and Britain regularly had, provided assistance to a country whose policies it supported...We are concerned that changing this (the IMF) policy in the context of Ukraine's politically charged restructuring may raise questions as to the impartiality of an institution that plays a critical role in addressing international financial instability," Siluanov wrote.

[Proserpina]

21. US FEDERAL BUDGET: Spending negotiations to stretch into next week

President Obama has already signed the stop-gap funding bill

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2015/12/10/spending-negotiations-to-stretch-into-next-week/

The Senate on Thursday passed a stop-gap bill that would give negotiators until the middle of next week to reach a deal on a year-end spending bill, as congressional leaders slowly make progress toward an agreement.

The Senate quietly passed the short-term funding extension by voice vote and the House is expected to clear the legislation early on Friday, hours before funding for the government is set to run out.

“This short-term funding resolution allows time for the House and Senate to complete work on pending appropriations legislation,” said Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Thad Cochran (R-Miss.). “Our negotiations are progressing steadily, and I expect that senators will soon be able to consider a bill that will meet the funding needs for our national defense and other priorities.”

The pressure is now on negotiators to reach an agreement quickly in order to allow the House and Senate enough time to approve the deal before the new Dec. 16 deadline.

disgusting!

more

[Proserpina]

23. Obama to cancel millions in student loans swindled by Rubio-supported Corinthian Colleges

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/12/4/1456936/-Obama-to-cancel-millions-in-student-loans-swindled-by-Rubio-supported-Corinthian-Colleges

Corinthia College Inc. is the bankrupted and criminal organization that Marco Rubio was defending just this past year, probably because he got a boatload of money from them in campaign organizations. Over the past 10 years it has come to light—through numerous lawsuits and state and federal investigations—that untold billions of dollars has been swindled out of student and taxpayers’ pockets by this private educational company. Earlier this year the Obama administration forgave almost half a billion dollars in federal student loans that were fraudulently acquired and today it’s being reported that further cancelations of federal student loans are coming.

The move marks the first recent use of a little-utilized provision in federal law that gives student debtors the right to petition the Education Department to discharge their debt in cases where they were defrauded into taking out loans.

The debt forgiveness plan only affects 1 percent of the roughly 125,000 student debtors who are eligible for expedited debt cancellation. That comes to about 2 percent of the students' nearly $1.3 billion in combined loan balances. The department said in June and November that those borrowers were eligible for immediate loan relief after determining that Corinthian had likely defrauded the former students by advertising false job placement rates.

The move is symbolic at best right now. As the Huffington Post points out, Massachusetts is being pressured to do six times that number in their state alone.

The department had received fewer than 6,700 applications as of Nov. 18, according to its report. By comparison, Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey on Nov. 30 urged Duncan to cancel debts owed by about 7,200 borrowers who attended Corinthian’s schools in her state alone. She sent the department 2,700 pages of confidential evidence from her investigation into Corinthian’s alleged frauds and attestations from former Corinthian students to support their claims for relief.

“The department funneled billions of dollars to executives and shareholders of these fraudulent ‘schools’ for over a decade," said the Debt Collective, a group of activists who have helped organize hundreds of allegedly defrauded student debtors to stop making payments on their loans, in a statement. "It now wants to save face by creating a Rube Goldberg-type contraption to prevent as many people as possible from seeking the relief they deserve."

The criticisms of the administration are far from unwarranted as just last month another private educational organization, Educational Management Corporation, settled with the Justice Department for a reported $95.5 million dollars—a far cry from the billions they ripped off. Still, as slowly and inefficiently as things are running, they are running in a correct general direction. There needs to be better outreach to the eligible borrowers concerning their debt relief.


and so, that makes all things better? this little good-will gesture?

[Proserpina]

24. Economist’s Criticism of Federal Reserve Policies Gains Ground

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/08/business/dealbook/economists-criticism-of-federal-reserve-policies-gains-ground.html

Many Fed watchers have warned about the upsetting effect Ben S. Bernanke’s aggressive central bank actions have had on emerging markets around the globe.

But when the recently retired chairman of the Federal Reserve came to the International Monetary Fund last month to deliver a vigorous defense of how his bond-buying spree played out abroad, Mr. Bernanke directed his remarks not at prominent critics in Brazil and India but at a 45-year-old French economist living in London.

Hélène Rey, a professor at the London Business School, contends that the impact of Fed policies on global markets has become so potent that emerging markets have become largely powerless in terms of coping with the large investment flows that pour into and out of their economies.

Mr. Bernanke’s speech largely focused on his own legacy, but the issue of how mindful the Fed should be regarding the effect that rate changes have on other countries has become critically important...

more

[Proserpina]

25. Hillary Clinton: How I’d Rein In Wall Street

We now come to the humor section of the Weekend...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/07/opinion/hillary-clinton-how-id-rein-in-wall-street.html

...As president, I would not only veto any legislation that would weaken financial reform, but I would also fight for tough new rules, stronger enforcement and more accountability that go well beyond Dodd-Frank.

My comprehensive plan has already won praise from progressives like Sherrod Brown and Barney Frank. Here’s what it would do:

First, we need to further rein in major financial institutions. My plan proposes legislation that would impose a new risk fee on dozens of the biggest banks — those with more than $50 billion in assets — and other systemically important financial institutions to discourage the kind of hazardous behavior that could induce another crisis. I would also ensure that the federal government has — and is prepared to use — the authority and tools necessary to reorganize, downsize and ultimately break up any financial institution that is too large and risky to be managed effectively. No bank or financial firm should be too big to manage.

My plan would strengthen the Volcker Rule by closing the loopholes that still allow banks to make speculative gambles with taxpayer-backed deposits. And I would fight to reinstate the rules governing risky credit swaps and derivatives at taxpayer-backed banks, which were repealed during last year’s budget negotiations after a determined lobbying campaign by the banks.

My plan also goes beyond the biggest banks to include the whole financial sector. Some have urged the return of a Depression-era rule called Glass-Steagall, which separated traditional banking from investment banking. But many of the firms that contributed to the crash in 2008, like A.I.G. and Lehman Brothers, weren’t traditional banks, so Glass-Steagall wouldn’t have limited their reckless behavior. Nor would restoring Glass-Steagall help contain other parts of the “shadow banking” sector, including certain activities of hedge funds, investment banks and other non-bank institutions. My plan would strengthen oversight of these activities, too — increasing leverage and liquidity requirements for broker-dealers and imposing strict margin requirements on the kinds of short-term borrowing that also played a major role in spurring the financial crisis. We need to tackle excessive risk wherever it lurks, not just in the banks.

Second, I would appoint tough, independent regulators and ensure that both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are independently funded — as other critical regulators are now — so that they can do their jobs without political interference. I would seek to impose a tax on harmful high-frequency trading, which makes markets less stable and less fair. And we need to reform stock market rules to ensure equal access to information, increase transparency and minimize conflicts of interest.

Finally, executives need to be held more accountable. No one should be too big to jail. I would seek to extend the statute of limitations for major financial crimes to 10 years from five and enhance rewards for whistle-blowers. I would work to ensure that financial firms admit wrongdoing as part of settlements in instances of egregious misconduct, and increase transparency about the terms of settlement and the fines actually paid to the government. Fines should be more than just the cost of doing business to these companies — they should be an effective disincentive for illegal behavior.

And it shouldn’t just be shareholders and taxpayers who feel the pain when banks make bad decisions; executives should have skin in the game. When a firm pays a fine, I would make sure that the penalty cuts into executives’ bonuses, too. And I would fight to close the carried interest loophole that gives some fund managers billions of dollars in tax breaks: They should be taxed like every other citizen....


recorded for posterity...she thinks BARNEY FRANK is a good branch to lean on?

[antigop]

29. What Hillary Clinton Didn’t Tell You in Her New York Times OpEd

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251885080

[Proserpina]

26. Donald Trump Call For US Ban On Muslims Could Hurt His Own Mideast Business Deals, Cost Him Millions

proof that Trump is serious about winning the White House, imo...it's not about the money

http://www.ibtimes.com/political-capital/donald-trump-call-us-ban-muslims-could-hurt-his-own-mideast-business-deals-cost

In his latest controversial move, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump called for a “total and complete” travel ban on Muslims trying to enter the United States. The White House declared it “un-American” and many fellow GOP candidates, Democrats and U.S. Muslim leaders denounced the comments.

Given the strange dynamics of the presidential race this year, the widespread criticism may only strengthen Trump's political standing. But the billionaire businessman’s statements might cost him in another way. A decision by Muslim countries to reciprocate with their own ban could hurt Trump's business interests in the region. His company's on-the-ground dealings in various Muslim countries are a key part of his empire -- one he first built through his dealings with the Saudi royal family.

That original deal was struck in 1995, just six years before 19 hijackers -- 15 of whom were Saudi nationals -- flew planes into the World Trade Center towers Sept. 11, 2001. Back then, Trump made a deal for New York City's famed Plaza Hotel -- a bailout valued at $325 million -- with an investment group linked to Saudi Prince al-Walid bin Talal Abdulaziz al-Saud. He had previously sold his yacht to the same Saudi prince. (The money went to U.S. and Japanese banks that had lent money to Trump or held a mortgage on the hotel, not to Trump himself, the New York Times reported.)

RTX1XCEK U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign stop in Spencer, Iowa, Dec. 5, 2015. Photo: Reuters

Today, even as Trump barnstorms the United States denouncing Muslims, his company continues to do big business in the same countries from which he wants to ban emigrants. For example, Trump’s portfolio boasts about major golf resorts that his company is spearheading in Dubai, the largest city in the United Arab Emirates. In 2013, the Trump Organization signed its first agreement with Damac Properties, a development company based in Dubai, to operate Trump International Golf Club Dunai. A second golf course, Trump World Golf Club Dubai, also expected to be built by Damac Properties, is slated to open by the end of 2017...

[Proserpina]

27. Florida woman arrested for hit-and-run after her car calls police

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/dec/07/florida-woman-arrested-hit-and-run-car-calls-police

A Florida woman has been arrested for a hit-and-run accident in Port St Lucie, after her car called the police to report the collision.

According to police, who say the 57-year-old driver hit a truck and a van before driving off, her car’s emergency assistance feature automatically called 911, reporting the accident and location.

Local news reports say at least one victim of the accident, as well as the driver, ended up in hospital.

An increasing number of cars have features which let them contact police in case of a collision, detected by monitoring internal systems such as airbags. Ford’s system, for instance, uses a connected mobile phone to call emergency services and “supply vital information, such as your GPS coordinates, in the event you do not know your location or you are not able to provide it yourself”.

The systems aren’t designed to report on their owners in case they flee the scene of a crime, but it turns out they have that effect too - particularly if the owner isn’t aware that they turned it on in the first place....

[Proserpina]

28. Well, that's about as far as I can go

sorry for all the political stuff, but it did have economic issues wrapped up in it...see you later, if the site comes back up, or my plans for the day get scrambled...keep on posting!

[antigop]

30. Regulators: Banks Are Now Making Riskier Loans, Just Like Before the Crash

http://wallstreetonparade.com

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which regulates national banks, including the behemoth Wall Street banks that either blew themselves up or became part of shot-gun marriages during the 2008 crash to avoid outright collapse, issued a warning yesterday that credit risks are rising at banks. The rising risks are the result of a loosening of loan underwriting standards, which, says the OCC, “reflects broad trends similar to those experienced from 2005 through 2007, before the most recent financial crisis….”

The first question that comes to mind from this report is what good is increased capital at the mega banks if the banks are simultaneously increasing the riskiness of the loans on their books. The next question is why the regulators have sat back and watched this risk grow over the past tumultuous year without nipping it in the bud. And the final question is what does the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) – the coalition of all the bank and Wall Street regulators that huddle together regularly in secret – plan to do about this growing threat to financial stability.

It’s not like the 2008 crash occurred to some other generation. We’re the taxpayers that had a gun put to our collective heads to bail out the banks and balloon the national debt to $18.4 trillion to revive an economy that Wall Street blew up just seven years ago. We’re the same taxpayers that found out after the fact that the Federal Reserve had secretly pumped over $16 trillion in cumulative loans to Wall Street, domestic and foreign banks and U.S. corporations in the name of saving the financial system. We’re the citizens that have had to bear the economic brunt of an economy that can’t grow above a two percent rate because of that epic financial crash and its aftermath. And, we’re the same taxpayers that will pay for the next bailout if these same too-big-to-fail banks implode again under the weight of their own hubris and the incompetence of their regulators – an outcome that seems likelier with every passing day.

As it turns out, FSOC is well aware of the growing risks at the banks. Its ingenious plan is to take the same action regulators took going into the 2008 crisis: to “monitor” the imprudent risk-taking rather than stopping it.

[kickysnana]

31. Thanks for being here. Last post on the old server. n/t