Opinion: Is Trump rocking the economy? Not really, it's just average

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Opinion: Is Trump rocking the economy? Not really, it’s just average

Published: Oct 23, 2017 3:22 a.m. ET

Trump’s first 9 months: The economy and markets are OK, but not the greatest ever

by Rex Nutting, Columnist

If there’s one thing about President Donald Trump that everyone can agree on it’s this: The man sure does love to brag. According to him, everything about him is the biggest, the best, the smartest, the richest. Everything he touches is gold. He’s a perfect 10. ... No president has ever bragged about the economy and the stock market more than Trump has in the past nine months. He’s particularly proud of the market’s performance, but he’s also bragged about job growth and economic growth since he was inaugurated on Jan. 20 (in front of the largest crowd ever assembled, remember.)
....

Yes, the stock market is at record levels, and has done very well since January. But how unusual are those gains? How good is job growth, compared with the past? What about gross domestic product? ... At this point, we’ve got the numbers on nine months of stock-market returns, eight months of payroll growth, and two quarters of GDP growth. So I looked at how the stock market did in every nine-month period in the last 25 years (going back 12 more years to 1980 wouldn’t change the analysis very much). I looked at employment growth in every eight-month period. And I looked at GDP growth in every two-quarter period.

The charts show the results. I’ve colored in red all of the periods with better performance than what we’ve had since Trump’s inauguration, and I’ve colored all the periods with worse performance in green. All the charts end at the beginning of Trump’s term.



The stock market’s gains since Jan. 20 have been very strong, but bull markets aren’t unusual, as the red lines show.

{snip a lot of charts}

....
The conclusion of this analysis is about what you’d expect if you’ve been paying attention: Everything is good, but it’s not the greatest ever. There have been some periods in the past that recorded faster growth, more hiring and larger returns in the stock market. And some periods were worse than the recent performance.
....

Rex Nutting is a columnist and MarketWatch's international commentary editor, based in Washington. Follow him on Twitter @RexNutting.

[unblock]

1. red against green?? seriously?? the most common form of color-blindness? thanks for nutting!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. I see what you did there. Can you write him or MarketWatch and let them know? NT

[Pantagruel]

3. It's a global wave

U.S. Markets are simply continuing the Obama recovery but now, since early 2016/ before Trump, virtually every global market has turned up and the wave is floating all boats.
Yes, you can make an argument the U.S. markets are seeing some benefit from promises of lower taxes and deregulation but surely much less than Trump claims. And don't forget low taxes and weak regulation usually come at heavy costs down the road.

[Gothmog]

4. This is the same stock market increase that started under President Obama