The next recession won't be like the accelerated 2008 crisis - it will be long, slow and deep

[Soph0571]

The world is edging towards a recession once again. The yield curve, which shows the return on US government debt, has inverted for the first time since 2007 – meaning short-term bonds pay out more than long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve has augured every major recession for the last half century.

The global economic indicators are not good. In the US, business investment is falling as the effect of its stimulus programme fades and concerns grow over the trade war with China. The eurozone is feeling the squeeze as demand from China and US slows. Germany has fallen into negative growth and the Bundesbank has said the country is probably heading for a recession. Uncertainty around Brexit is constraining business investment in the UK, while the overall growth of the economy has disappointed financial analysts for several quarters now.
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The ten years since the financial crisis have been a lost decade for wages, investment and productivity.

Many people are no better off today than they were in 2007, and they do not expect their lot to improve. If the political turmoil of the last decade has resulted from economic stagnation, there is no telling what chaos might be unleashed when stagnation turns into decline.

[link:https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/08/next-recession-won-t-be-accelerated-2008-crisis-it-will-be-long-slow-and|]

Batten down the hatches. Things are about to get very bumpy.

[Loki Liesmith]

1. Think it will actually short quick and shallow

Rather like the analysis in the excerpt.

[Farmer-Rick]

2. Honestly, I saw no recovery despite what the government likes to tell us.

Wages did NOT go up. If the majority of the people make no more money per hour than they did during the great recession then there was no recovery.

"After adjusting for inflation, however, today’s average hourly wage has just about the same purchasing power it did in 1978, following a long slide in the 1980s and early 1990s and bumpy, inconsistent growth since then. In fact, in real terms average hourly earnings peaked more than 45 years ago: The $4.03-an-hour rate recorded in January 1973 had the same purchasing power that $23.68 would today."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/08/07/for-most-us-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/

So to most Americans...not including the filthy rich....a recession is just a way of life.