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Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:27 PM

 

S&P now only 8% down from the peak, up nearly 40% from the bottom

The recovery has not been "V shaped" but pretty close. I think traders are getting used to COVID-19. I'm still nervous, but will not be pulling money out. During the darkest days, I just had to plug my ears and say la-la-la.

ADP and Moody’s Analytics reported private payrolls fell by another 2.76 million in May. The ADP number was far less than the 8.75 million estimate. Data from the Institute for Supply Management showed the U.S. services sector contracted less than expected, rebounding from an 11-year trough.


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/02/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

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Reply S&P now only 8% down from the peak, up nearly 40% from the bottom (Original post)
Steelrolled Jun 2020 OP
FBaggins Jun 2020 #1
PoindexterOglethorpe Jun 2020 #2
progree Jun 2020 #3
progree Jun 2020 #4
progree Jun 2020 #5
Steelrolled Jun 2020 #6

Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Wed Jun 3, 2020, 04:40 PM

1. NASDAQ down less than 2% from the peak

Which makes at least some sense.

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Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Wed Jun 3, 2020, 05:34 PM

2. Another example of why staying in the market

makes vastly more sense than trying to time it.

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Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Wed Jun 3, 2020, 06:31 PM

3. Hopefully investors will be able to swallow vastly higher P/E ratios than those before the crisis

when 2nd quarter earnings come out. The P/E ratios were already way high by historic standards. Likewise the market cap to GDP ratio. And that while the stock market may have made a nearly V shaped recovery so far, the actual economy -- and earnings -- will be much slower to recover and will take years to reach their Q4 2019 level.

Along with a wave of corporate and municipal bankruptcies, and vast cutbacks in state and local spending.

Minnesota's $1.5 billion budget surplus turned into a $2.4 billion deficit almost overnight. The $2.4 billion deficit will soon be seen as "the good ol' days".

And when the endless supply of stimulus spending and federal reserve lending $trillions to corporations -- what sent the market back up -- eventually and inevitably starts winding down.

It ain't over yet.

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Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Mon Jun 8, 2020, 05:30 PM

4. S&P 500 has left "pull back" territory, which was between 5% and 10% down. It's now 4.5%

below the all-time high

3386   all-time high reached on Feb 19
3232   Monday 6/8/20's close
-4.5%

It is also positive year-to-date for the first time in months (it closed at 3231 on 12/31/19)

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Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Tue Jun 9, 2020, 03:56 PM

5. S&P 500 back in "pullback territory", and also negative again year-to-date

S&P 500 closing values:

3386   2/19 all-time-high
3207   6/9 Tuesday, today
-5.3% (between 5% and 10% down from the recent peak is a "pullback" )

3231   12/31/19 year-end 2019

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Response to Steelrolled (Original post)

Tue Jun 9, 2020, 05:05 PM

6. NASDAQ briefly hit 10000 and (I think) closed at a record high

 

Often the financial markets ignore the drama going on in politics and the world over all, and they take a more unemotional and rational view. I still wonder about this big market recovery, although not complaining. I was happy to see a little pullback today.

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