College enrollment shows signs of slowing

[Rosa Luxemburg]

Harvard, Yale and a few other selective universities may be announcing record numbers of applications for the semester beginning in the fall, but higher-education officials are fretting about ominous signs that overall college enrollment is starting to drop.

More schools have space still available than at any time in at least a decade. Already, in the academic year just ending, many universities had to offer greater discounts just to fill seats. Yet fewer admitted students enrolled, and more than 40 percent of private colleges reported enrollment declines. Even community colleges—drowning in double-digit growth the past few years—experienced enrollment dips this year.

“We are seeing the beginnings of a cool-down,” said Barmak Nassirian, associate executive director of the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers.

more
http://hechingerreport.org/content/college-enrollment-shows-signs-of-slowing_8688/

[mike_c]

1. middle class students are being priced out of higher ed...

...and more and more are reluctant to go into a lifetime of indenture to huge debt loads.

[Drale]

2. That and

there are to many schools for to few students. All these for-profit scam colleges are pulling students away from real schools.

[Igel]

3. Two months old.

Time for an update.

Not really enough information, either. Tidal Wave 3 is probably ending, so the #s of 18-year-old should be going flat.

Costs are up. Student loans get a lot of news.

And with all the reports that college isn't worth it, a bit of interest should be down.

Demographics are changing. Predictions were that interest would stay strong, based on trends from over the last 10 years. Predictions are neat to criticize after the fact. Nothing better to base estimates. But believing them is risky. Esp. in education, where so often the assumptions count for as much as the data (and they're usually the more objective studies).

Grad school enrollment used to increase during a recession. An MA or MS is just a beefed up BA or MS in many ways. But now the recession's gone on long enough that the crunch has hit: finish or go for the PhD--when admission to PhD programs is usually a lot tougher.

But the biggie: With everybody applying to multiple schools, until all the admission letters are in or the deadline's clearly expired, you don't know what enrollment looks like. Until then, it's all interim. And with most schools starting school in 2-3 weeks, their actual numbers now shouldn't be "interim."