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OKIsItJustMe

(19,937 posts)
Thu Jul 14, 2016, 07:03 PM Jul 2016

Bad News: We’re Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever

https://www.thenation.com/article/bad-news-were-actually-using-more-fossil-fuels-than-ever/
[font face=Serif][font size=5]Bad News: We’re Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever[/font]

[font size=4] Renewable forms of energy are growing far faster than anyone expected. But so is the use of oil, coal, and natural gas.[/font]

By Michael T. Klare
Today 3:37 pm

[font size=3]Here’s the good news: Wind power, solar power, and other renewable forms of energy are expanding far more quickly than anyone expected, ensuring that these systems will provide an ever-increasing share of our future energy supply. According to the most recent projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy, global consumption of wind, solar, hydropower, and other renewables will double between now and 2040, jumping from 64 to 131 quadrillion British thermal units (BTUs).

And here’s the bad news: the consumption of oil, coal, and natural gas is also growing, making it likely that, whatever the advances of renewable energy, fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global landscape for decades to come, accelerating the pace of global warming and ensuring the intensification of climate-change catastrophes.

The rapid growth of renewable energy has given us much to cheer about. Not so long ago, energy analysts were reporting that wind and solar systems were too costly to compete with oil, coal, and natural gas in the global marketplace. Renewables would, it was then assumed, require pricey subsidies that might not always be available. That was then and this is now. Today, remarkably enough, wind and solar are already competitive with fossil fuels for many uses and in many markets.

If that wasn’t predicted, however, neither was this: Despite such advances, the allure of fossil fuels hasn’t dissipated. Iindividuals, governments, whole societies continue to opt for such fuels even when they gain no significant economic advantage from that choice and risk causing severe planetary harm. Clearly, something irrational is at play. Think of it as the fossil-fuel equivalent of an addictive inclination writ large.

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arcane1

(38,613 posts)
1. We are going to have to seriously start thinking about using less electricity. Conservation.
Thu Jul 14, 2016, 07:12 PM
Jul 2016

We can start by bringing back the goddamn "off" switch!!!

OKIsItJustMe

(19,937 posts)
2. Sometimes, I think about the fact that it seems every American needs…
Thu Jul 14, 2016, 07:24 PM
Jul 2016

…to carry a computer and radio transmitter with them 24 hours a day.

That “smart phone” may not use a lot of juice, but give one to every member of the family, and… compare that to the days when the family had one of these sitting, passively, on a table:

 

arcane1

(38,613 posts)
3. Yes, and at least that phone wasn't sucking up electricity while it sat all day, unused.
Thu Jul 14, 2016, 07:26 PM
Jul 2016

It amazes me how many coworkers not only leave their computers on all the time, they even leave their monitors on all the time. Weekends, even!

 

Lance Bass esquire

(671 posts)
4. When big oil decides its time to move on THEN
Thu Jul 14, 2016, 09:46 PM
Jul 2016

we will start to pay them for solar/wind and hydro.

The illusion of a free market is just that.

The majority of our countrymen will never get off the grid...we are too lazy and Big (fill in the blank) knows it.

Was built into the game plan by the founding fathers.

The opulence of the minority, must be protected from the vote of the majority.

It's all in black and white if you know where to look.

Read some Chomsky for starters.

Been hearing the "we got to start" chant for 50 years.

Nothing major will ever change unless THEY want it to.

Not trying to discourage peeps or piss in your tea cups..JMHO

NNadir

(33,474 posts)
5. This is a surprise? I guess it would be if you spent the last 50 years reading about "solar...
Thu Jul 14, 2016, 10:11 PM
Jul 2016

...breakthroughs."

The idea that solar and wind are competitive is nonsensical. By definition they require redundancies, and the only option for fueling these redundancies is dangerous fossil fuels, and having two systems to do what one system can do should obviously be expensive, but still we hear this crap about solar and wind are "competitive."

If so, why is electricity in Denmark and Germany the most expensive in Europe?

The mere fact that this is actually being discussed this late in the game says everything, but these facts have been obvious for a long time.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
6. $48,000,000,000
Fri Jul 15, 2016, 02:29 AM
Jul 2016
Estimated cost of Hinkley Point C nuclear plant rises to £37bn
Critics point to volatility of scheme but energy department says price ‘will not affect bill payers’

Terry Macalister Energy editor Thursday 7 July 2016 15.57 EDT


The total lifetime cost of the planned Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant could be as high as £37bn, according to an assessment published by the UK government. The figure was described as shocking by critics of the scheme, who said it showed just how volatile and uncertain the project had become, given that the same energy department’s estimate 12 months earlier had been £14bn.

The latest prediction comes amid increasing speculation about the future of the controversial project in Somerset, whose existence has been put in further doubt by post-Brexit financial jitters.

Hinkley has been a flagship energy project for the British government and in particular for the chancellor, George Osborne, who lobbied hard and successfully for China to take a stake in the scheme.

<snip>

... experts said the extra money, if the cost did remain at £37bn, would have to come from somewhere – probably the taxpayer – or be shaved off other DECC budgets available for different energy projects, such as windfarms and solar arrays. “This whole-life cost of £37bn is a truly shocking figure. It is an extraordinary ramp-up from last year’s figure, and just underlines how hard it is to get a real handle on the long-term cost of Hinkley,” said Paul Dorfman, senior research fellow at the Energy Institute, University College London...

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jul/07/hinkley-point-c-nuclear-plant-costs-up-to-37bn











kristopher

(29,798 posts)
7. "the allure of fossil fuels hasn’t dissipated" = Bullshit
Fri Jul 15, 2016, 03:07 AM
Jul 2016

Using the EIA as a predictor of future energy market performance is a terrible choice as they have one of the very worst records of accuracy of anyone engaged in energy analysis. (see note below - k) And, contrary to the author's claims, plenty of folks have predicted the progress on the renewable front. The best among them being Greenpeace.

We are just now (well ahead of expectations) passing the price parity point with renewables, and global institutions such as the World Bank are finally shifting their emphasis away from FF to renewables. Developing economies without grid infrastructure are leapfrogging the grid and going directly to distributed resources. And the list goes on with observed behavior in every front indicating that change is proceeding far, far more rapidly than anyone would have thought possible 10 years ago.

Oh, and did I mention that the price of lithium battery storage has declined 70% in the past 18 months?

Do we need to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels? Of course, but every indication we can track is telling us that the rate of change is itself ramping up dramatically. 2007 in China was, IMO, the tipping point where the momentum associated with renewable adoption became an unstoppable part of the landscape. We've crossed the point where the winners from renewable adoption outweigh the losers in fossil fuels and that is the key metric from understanding what future we are moving into. Its a metric that the author is clearly missing.

Last but not least, Micheal Klare's list of articles for The Nation:
MICHAEL T. KLARE
Defense Correspondent
@mklare1
Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and the defense correspondent of The Nation. He is the author of 14 books on international energy and security affairs, including most recently, The Race for What’s Left.

Listing Image
ENVIRONMENT YESTERDAY 3:37 PM

Bad News: We’re Actually Using More Fossil Fuels Than Ever
Renewable forms of energy are growing far faster than anyone expected. But so is the use of oil, coal, and natural gas.
MICHAEL T. KLARE


The United States and NATO Are Preparing for a Major War With Russia
Massive military exercises and a troop buildup on NATO’s eastern flank reflect a dangerous new strategy.
MICHAEL T. KLARE


As the Oil Industry Collapses, What Will Happen to the Countries That Depend On It?
The combination of low prices and high supply is likely to create some dangerous chaos in the oil heartlands of the world.
MICHAEL T. KLARE


Did OPEC Just Start Preparing for the End of the Oil Era?
The debacle in Doha may be the beginning of the end for the old oil order.
MICHAEL T. KLARE


The Future of Oil Is Here—and It Doesn’t Look Pretty
As prices plummet and oversupply continues, the once-unsinkable industry is foundering.
MICHAEL T. KLARE

___________________________________________________________
___________________________________________________________

** Edited to add** Just read this from the Union of Concerned Scientists

Energy Jul 12, 2016

7 Reasons Renewable Energy Will Soon Surpass Coal and Nuclear Power

By Steve Clemmer

<snip>

7. EIA is Finally Using More Realistic Cost Sssumptions for Renewable Energy

UCS has been an outspoken critic of EIA's pessimistic renewable energy projections and assumptions for many years. We have written several blog posts on the topic and provided input directly to EIA on a few of their analyses and as a participant on several EIA modeling working groups. We also use a modified version of EIA's National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) in-house to show how renewables could make a larger contribution to the U.S. electricity mix at a much lower cost when using more realistic assumptions.

One of the main reasons why EIA's projections have fallen short is because they have consistently overestimated the cost of renewable energy technologies like wind and solar. They often lag a few years behind what's happening on the ground. However, this year is different. For AEO 2016, EIA finally lowered their costs for wind and solar to be more in-line with cost data from a large sample of recent projects, as documented by DOE's national labs and the national wind and solar trade associations.

In EIA's defense, their reference case for each AEO only reflects state and federal energy policies that were enacted at the time they do their projections, as discussed extensively in a recent EIA report. With Congress allowing federal renewable energy tax credits to lapse several times before extending them for relatively short periods, and states adopting and increasing renewable electricity standards (RES) many times over the past two decades years, it is somewhat understandable that EIA's projections of renewable energy development have fallen short of reality.


http://www.ecowatch.com/renewable-energy-surpass-coal-and-nuclear-power-1917658952.html

raven mad

(4,940 posts)
8. Our little shack has nothing but LED lights -
Fri Jul 15, 2016, 06:00 AM
Jul 2016

they aren't cheap, but it's cheaper than the power bills - power company uses a LOT of coal and is about 90 miles from "town". No choice but to heat, but we use a monitor (Toyo) heater for the whole place. I figured we were doing okay - until the power company decided to up the rates 24% - and they are the only game in town.

Try getting "alternatives" here? That's laughable - a goal I recommend to everyone who can actually do it, especially if they can show me how to at 40 below and the sun is barely visible on the horizon during December.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
9. The first step is to determine what resources you have.
Fri Jul 15, 2016, 06:25 AM
Jul 2016

That includes both energy and economic. If you're on a tight budget you'll probably be tied to the utility. See what they and anyone else at the local , state or federal level have in the way of energy efficiency programs or demand side management incentives. The energy efficiency upgrades can sometimes make a huge difference depending on where you're starting from.
In an ideal case you strive to convert your home to a net zero energy status, where it produces more energy than it uses. That is still an expensive proposition but it's not as far off as you might think. The retrofit energy efficiency won't get you there, but, if properly done, it might be possible to have an energy bill that is only 20 or 30 dollars with a small grid tied solar panel system.

Edited to add: demand side management programs are pretty common and are usually worth $20-50 or so per month year.

raven mad

(4,940 posts)
10. My whole point, kristopher -
Fri Jul 15, 2016, 07:56 AM
Jul 2016

is that there ARE NO ALTERNATIVES.

Big Oil saw to that as early as the 1960's. Wood stove? Still illegal unless you're out of the Borough - and the Fairbanks North Star Borough is just a small part of Alaska - and is bigger than New Jersey.

Some friends pooled resources for solar. It worked for them for about 3 months, then the long dark hit. Back to electricity. My sweet incredible husband works in the electrical industry and pushes LED's and fluorescent lamps as much as he can. Heck, he converted some of our military areas to them, as well as the local trade school. On top of that, he is a qualified "energy efficient" inspector. Retrofit is an option but you have to work with whoever is supplying the power. Off grid isn't very easy here - remember the jerk in the bus who decided to "live off the land"??

He died.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
11. I didn't suggest off-grid.
Fri Jul 15, 2016, 09:48 AM
Jul 2016

I suggested grid tied solar after all possible energy efficiency measures are employed. Energy efficiency is the least expensive alternative in almost all cases.

"The long dark" is bunk.

NJ has plenty of sunshine. I don't know the current status of their energy support, but not too long ago they had one of the most aggressive programs in the country for energy efficiency and solar. That's why the state ranks in the top tier for installed solar.

raven mad

(4,940 posts)
12. I'd bust my own butt to get this done.
Fri Jul 15, 2016, 09:54 AM
Jul 2016

Total abundance of sun here - for 3 months. When the dark hits, it stays. I applaud the states and the people in them who are making this kind of choice and sharing. It's just not going to work way up here.

When the dark and cold hit, all bets are off.

OKIsItJustMe

(19,937 posts)
14. Raven Mad appears to be in Alaska
Fri Jul 15, 2016, 07:07 PM
Jul 2016
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1127103338#post10
… Wood stove? Still illegal unless you're out of the Borough - and the Fairbanks North Star Borough is just a small part of Alaska - and is bigger than New Jersey.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/~raven%20mad

raven mad

(4,940 posts)
15. Yep, can't burn the only renewable energy around.
Sat Jul 16, 2016, 11:22 PM
Jul 2016

Kinda funny when you can get a very low emissions wood stove that puts out less pollutants than the power company does. Oh, and they slapped on a coal addition.

We do the damn best we can - and that includes the trees we plant every year. There is ONE power company, total monopoly. Fuel for heating is the same price at every place you can purchase it. And yeah, even in this very snug, very small shack, fuel is delivered ONLY if your order 100 gallons or more at a time. No, you can't go pick it up. Well, yeah, 5 to 10 gallons, but how long does that last at 45 below zero?

OKIsItJustMe - thank you for clarifying. We have it better than many in the state. Just to buy gas in a remote location is over $8 per gallon, milk (if you can get it) $12.

And we got a super nice notice today. We've been in the Heating Assistance Program for 12 years, which supplies about 100 gallons, max.

That program is now gone - NO ONE gets any assistance this year. Going to be a cold, cold winter for a lot of folks. Can't burn wood, can't burn coal, can't afford heating fuel - look for a lot of dead elders and small children, winter of 2016-2017. Thank you, you FUCKING REPUBLICANS.

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