Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumIncreasingly Likely That We Are Now Permanently Beyond Monthly Avg Of 400 ppm Atmospheric Carbon
And, as noted deeper in the article, Keeling called it in October of last year, just FYI.
Big August CO2 Jump Locking 400 ppm In
The August preliminary data are in. And its pretty grim. For with a big year-on-year CO2 jump in August, it looks like September of 2016 will be unable to achieve monthly CO2 averages below 400 parts per million. What that means is that the last month below the 400 level was probably October of 2015. So, for almost a year now, weve been living in the climate age of 400+, likely never to return to monthly atmospheric CO2 levels in the 300s again during the lifetimes of any of us humans now inhabiting this Earth.
According to NOAA, August CO2 measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory averaged 402.25 parts per million, which is a big 3.32 parts per million jump over 2015 August readings. Adding this number to previous months, we find that 2016, so far, has seen an average rate of rise of 3.495 parts per million during its first 8 months significantly ahead of previous annual record rates of rise during 2015 and 1998 (3.05 and 2.93 ppm respectively).
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(Two year Keeling Curve trend seems to indicate that its unlikely monthly values will not fall below 400 parts per million during 2016 and, for all practical purposes, ever again unless some kind of unprecedented change is made to global carbon emissions policies. Image source: The Keeling Curve.)
Such a big August jump makes it highly unlikely that September will average below 400 parts per million due to the fact that monthly drops leading into September typically average around 1.8 ppm CO2. If this trend holds true for 2016, then September will average around 400.5 ppm CO2. And since September typically sees the lowest atmospheric CO2 levels during any given year, the current month is basically the worlds last chance to see a 30 day period that averages below 400 ppm.
Conditions Not Seen in Millions of Years
Atmospheric CO2 levels are now so high that you have to go back about 3 million years into the Pliocene to find similar ranges. During that time, the world was between 2 and 3 degrees Celsius warmer than 1880s temperatures. Oceans were 25 to 75 feet higher and the world was a dramatically different place.
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(The age of 400 parts per million CO2 is here. Its something not seen in about 3 million years. In other words, youre breathing air right now composed of properties that no homo sapiens sapiens has ever breathed before. Image source: Climate Central.)
EDIT
Welcome to the Neo-Pliocene.
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/09/07/its-looking-like-well-never-see-another-month-below-400-ppm-co2-again/#comments
Dustlawyer
(10,495 posts)Like Lemmings we can all go over the cliff together.
pscot
(21,024 posts)OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)Lets be realistic. That ship has sailed.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/112789201#post5
CrispyQ
(36,457 posts)OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)The trend was clear.
CrispyQ
(36,457 posts)my husband & I would just miss the shit storm that is coming down the pike toward humanity. Now, I think we'll see the first of it, but not the worst of it.
OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)Its been happening for years, and we simply havent acknowledged it.
We probably wont live to see the worst of it.
CrispyQ
(36,457 posts)OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)We do. (Whats our excuse?)
hatrack
(59,584 posts)That said, with September-October well established as global low months, there's a slight chance for one last slip below the line on a monthly basis, and we'll certainly see some dailies around 399.
OKIsItJustMe
(19,938 posts)August 31, 2016 | Rob Monroe
[font size=3]A hurricane bearing down on Hawaii prompted operators to shut down CO₂ monitoring equipment at Mauna Loa Observatory on the Big Island.
Mauna Loa officials said they considered a power outage at the observatory to be likely and hoped to be able to resume measurements on Thursday but that a second westward-moving hurricane, Lester, passing by might delay them further.
Hurricane Madeline could be behind an unexpected dip in carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Mauna Loa below 400 parts per million (ppm) this week. The reading reported on Tuesday was 399.86 ppm.
A working hypothesis is that the low values are caused by the hurricane bringing in air from much further north, where we do expect to see sub-400 ppm values, said Keeling. Earlier this summer, we also saw values that were unseasonably low when a hurricane was looming.
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The trend is clear
NickB79
(19,233 posts)As we pass 450 ppm and half the life on this planet is in danger of extinction.
hunter
(38,311 posts)News of extinctions, even for a few big beloved mammal species, won't get past the Science/Environment section.
I'm afraid people in more secure places will develop a remarkable ability to ignore those who are starving, drowning, killing one another for limited resources, and dying from newly evolved diseases.
The paleontologist in me finds it all quite fascinating. Here I am witnessing a mass extinction event. It's bloody amazing.