Major Stratospheric Current, Tracked For Decades, Switches Direction Without Warning

[hatrack]

Two [climate change] effects [of Arctic warming] are identified … : 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased [Rossby] wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss… Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events … — Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, Dr. Jennifer Francis and Dr. Stephen Vavrus, Geophysical Research Letters

The recent disruption in the quasi-biennial oscillation was not predicted, not even one month ahead. — Dr. Scott Osprey

This unexpected disruption to the climate system switches the cycling of the quasi-biennial oscillation forever. — Professor Adam Scaife

…scientists believe that the quasi-biennial oscillation could become more susceptible to similar disruptions as the climate warms. — Physics.org

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(During February of 2016, high-amplitude Jet Stream waves or gravity waves interfered with the upper-level Equatorial Winds. This disruption was so significant that it caused a seasonal upper-level wind pattern near the Equator to change direction, a shift that was unprecedented in modern observation. Note how the upper-level wind flow frequently intersects with and even appears to cross the Equator at some points. Image source: Earth Nullschool global 250 hPa capture for February 18, 2016.)

I’ve said it before, and I’m going to say it again — loss of predictable seasons, or seasonality, due to human-forced climate change is very big deal. And regardless of how all the scientific details specifically pan out, there are now observed changes to Northern Hemisphere winter, possibly due to human-forced warming, that are apparently starting to undermine its traditional seasonal climate behaviors. As a result, weather patterns appear to be shifting toward greater extremes and lower levels of predictability.

QBO — One of Our Most Predictable Atmospheric Clocks…

For decades now, scientists have been observing a kind of atmospheric clock tick-tocking high above the Equator. Up in the stratosphere, 10 to 13 kilometers above the Earth, winds tend to flow either east to west or west to east. These air flows change direction about every 28 to 29 months. This feature, called the quasi-biennial oscillation or QBO, has never significantly varied. It has always flowed in one direction for a predictable period of time and then switched to flow in the other direction.

Winds flowing at this level of the atmosphere over the Equator have a far-reaching effect, particularly on the winter climate of northern Europe. There, westerly high-level Equatorial winds are known to bring warmer, wetter winters. Easterlies in the stratosphere over the Equator are known to bring cooler, drier winters. The key to remember is that the QBO has always been both amazingly predictable itself, and had equally predictable climate effects. As a result, meteorological observation of the QBO natural-variability pattern enabled forecasters to get an idea of what weather trend to expect for winter — not just during a single year, but also over a longer time horizon.

…and Climate Change May Now Be in the Process of Breaking It

What happens if the QBO becomes less predictable due to influences such as human-forced polar warming? What happens if the big meanders in the Jet Stream produced by this warming dig down all the way to the Equator during Northern Hemisphere winters and start to shove at the upper-level Equatorial wind field, causing the QBO to switch? If that happens, then a major aspect of Northern Hemisphere winter seasonal variability will have been fundamentally altered by climate change. Winter would become less like it is now and more like some strange, difficult-to-predict, climate-change-morphed hybrid of a thing.

EDIT

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/09/19/giant-gravity-waves-smashed-key-atmospheric-clock-during-winter-of-2016-possible-climate-change-link/

[bucolic_frolic]

1. Saw a black wooly caterpillar this week

My native American folklore says this means a harsh winter here in PA

[jtuck004]

2. Reminds me of this:

http://www.edvardmunch.org/

[Stonepounder]

3. All I can say is that I am glad that I'm old.

I'm scared of what will happen to my grandkids and great-grandkids. Because I suspect that the changes we are seeing are like Humpty-Dumpty.

All the Kings horses and all the Kings men
Couldn't put Humpty together again

And even if we can manage to get the greenhouse-gas emissions back down, it is already too late to expect the weather to somehow immediately snap back to 'normal.

[hatrack]

4. Well, I'll be damned - an E&E thread that's actually trending on the homepage!

It's about 10:30 at night, but what the hell.

Thanks, everybody!

[world wide wally]

5. This just goes to prove that climate change is NOT a debatable topic.

It doesn't matter what you think!

[2naSalit]

6. Thanks for posting...

this is big, I was out hiking in the Wilderness today and it was hot, even though we had several days of snow at 6500 - 7000ft elevation last week.It will be in the 80s tomorrow and then we are told it will snow Wed night a through Thursday and stay cold for a while... it only the equinox for heaven's sake! And i saw a big wooly-bear caterpillar today out there too with only two yellow bands. My hiking companion and I were trying to recall the folklorish indicator but we decided it might mean that winter was going to come super early given that we've had snow twice already in the past five weeks. And we have several days of work yet to complete out in the Wilderness before the end of the month.

Fall foliage in the west is super early too, as in it's already started.

[BlancheSplanchnik]

7. I think I'm going to be sick.

I could feel my stomach drop about 20 stories.



The loss of nature....of trees and the smell of meadows....what beauty we are losing.

Of all the creatures.....many of which I already miss. Like butterflies, caterpillars, fireflies, .....


This is what I really ...uh, I mean, ... ....this tears me up. Hard.

[progressoid]

8. Robert Scribbler should NOT be taken seriously.

He's just a blogger who tends to misunderstand data and blow things out of proportion.

Earlier this summer he declared that the northern jet stream, crossing the equator to the southern hemisphere, was the beginning of the apocalypse. It was roundly criticized.

“This is total nonsense,” said Cliff Mass, a professor of meteorology at the University of Washington. “Flow often crosses the equator.”

Mass added that the cross-equator flow identified by Scribbler and Beckwith is not between mid-latitude jet streams, as claimed. “The analysis is making mistakes that even one of my junior undergrads would not make,” Mass said.

Ryan Maue, a senior meteorologist with a doctoral degree who works at WeatherBell Analytics, agreed with Mass that the cross-equator flow is totally normal and not evidence of a joint hemispheric jet stream. “Cross-equatorial flow at both upper and lower levels is part of the seasonal transition of the Western Pacific monsoon through boreal summer,” he said.

“Sometimes the flows connect up with each other and make it look like a larger flow structure is causing the jet stream to flow from one hemisphere to the other, but it’s in no way unprecedented,” Roy Spencer, a professor of atmospheric science at University of Alabama-Huntsville, explained on his blog.

To be clear, the hypothesis that global warming is destabilizing the polar jet stream is a legitimate idea that has been published in peer-reviewed journals, though it remains controversial. But even the scientist who developed the hypothesis, Jennifer Francis, a professor of meteorology at Rutgers University, suggested it had been misapplied by Scribbler and Beckwith. “I’d say cross-equator flow cannot be unprecedented, maybe not even all that unusual,” she said.

We have enough trouble getting people to believe global warming without this guy giving out erroneous conclusions.

[sue4e3]

9. A little more fact a little less flamboyant

http://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/a-strange-thing-happened-in-the-stratosphere

[OKIsItJustMe]

10. More here

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1127104798