The gravest risks on the global horizon

[pscot]

Extreme weather, forced migration and natural disasters

?w=660&h=942

[northoftheborder]

1. Very interesting.

Easy to understand = put in a visual context. What is the source of this chart?

[pscot]

3. This was published by

the World Economic Forum at Davos. Searching Davos on Twitter turns up a variety of interesting graphics.

[northoftheborder]

4. Thanks.

[mahina]

2. I've been uncharacteristically anxious today, so thanks for that.

It's helpful.

As the poster above, I'd also like to know the source. Mahalo.

[pscot]

5. I've been experiencing a lot of free floating anxiety

since our turn to the dark side. I'm cultivating willful ignorance as a survival technique.

[mackdaddy]

6. Any Idea of what the axis scales units mean?

Is the 6.0 a percentage of likelihood over some time frame? Same with the impact axis, what do the units represent?

[pscot]

8. critical infrastructure failure

is more likely than illicit trade? Not sure how that works.

[bananas]

9. A likelihood of 4 is 50% probability over the next ten years

It's in Appendix B at http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2017/appendices/appendix-b-methodology/

Respondents were asked to assess the likelihood and global impact of each of the 30 risks.

For each risk, they were asked, “What is the likelihood of (the risk) occurring globally within the next 10 years?” and “What is the negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years?”

For the first question, the possible answers ranged from 1 (“extremely unlikely” with an associated probability of occurrence lower than 5%) to 7 (“extremely likely” with an associated probability of occurrence greater than 95%).

For the question on impact, respondents could select one of five choices: “minimal”, “minor”, “moderate”, “severe”, or “catastrophic”.

These five alternatives were turned into a 1–5 scale (1 = minimal, 5 = catastrophic).

It is worth noting that, as a consequence of the scale modification, the impact results cannot be compared with those of previous years.

[mackdaddy]

10. Thank you Bananas.

I actually did follow some of the links, but did not get to this deep I guess.

I guess I feel a little better because these assignments are a bit random without any explanation of the scale.

So I wonder how some of the posters on this group would size up the chances over the next ten years for the complete collapse of civilization?

My guess for the (gene) pool is that in 10 years we will be above the 5C global average temperature, and under a billion living humans. So on their scale I would say that that would be a full 5=Catastrophic, and I would go with about 70% likely hood (same as HRC winning the general), or about a 5 out of 7 on their scale.

[hatrack]

7. "Failure Of National Governance" caught my eye . . .

Hmmmm, I wonder why?