Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumHarvests in the US to suffer from climate change
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/harvests-in-the-us-to-suffer-from-climate-change[font size=4] 01/19/2017 - Some of the most important crops risk substantial damage from rising temperatures. To better assess how climate change caused by human greenhouse gas emissions will likely impact wheat, maize and soybean, an international team of scientists now ran an unprecedentedly comprehensive set of computer simulations of US crop yields. The simulations were shown to reproduce the observed strong reduction in past crop yields induced by high temperatures, thereby confirming that they capture one main mechanism for future projections. Importantly, the scientists find that increased irrigation can help to reduce the negative effects of global warming on crops but this is possible only in regions where sufficient water is available. Eventually limiting global warming is needed to keep crop losses in check. [/font]
[font size=3]We know from observations that high temperatures can harm crops, but now we have a much better understanding of the processes, says Bernhard Schauberger from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, lead author of the study. The computer simulations that we do are based on robust knowledge from physics, chemistry, biology; on a lot of data and elaborate algorithms. But they of course cannot represent the entire complexity of the crop system, hence we call them models. In our study they have passed a critical test. The scientists compare the model results to data from actual observations. This way, they can find out if they include the critical factors into their calculations, from temperature to CO2, from irrigation to fertilization.
Without efficient emission reductions, yield losses of 20 percent for wheat are possible by 2100
For every single day above 30°C, maize and soybean plants can lose about 5 percent of their harvest. The simulations have shown that the models capture how rather small heat increases beyond this threshold can result in abrupt and substantial yield losses. Such temperatures will be more frequent under unabated climate change and can severely harm agricultural productivity. Harvest losses from elevated temperatures of 20 percent for wheat, 40 percent for soybean and almost 50 percent for maize, relative to non-elevated temperatures, can be expected at the end of our century without efficient emission reductions. These losses do not even consider extremely high temperatures above 36°C, which are expected to lower yields further.
The effects go far beyond the US, one of the largest crop exporters: world market crop prices might increase, which is an issue for food security in poor countries.
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angstlessk
(11,862 posts)Time to get on the trump train, and hope you don't drown!
OKIsItJustMe
(19,937 posts)I may go back to the Greenhouse Effect.
mackdaddy
(1,522 posts)I think that this is an important study, and does show the effect of average temperature increases on crop yields.
But, it does not include what will happen to the extreme weather patterns we seem to be developing. With the loss of the median weather and increases in the whipsaw Drought or Deluge rains being caused by the jet-stream extreme kinks. A large swath of western Ohio had a 40 to 60% drop in crop yields because of about six weeks of constant rain keeping the soil over saturated in 2015.
These article keep talking about major crop yield losses in 60 to 80 years. At the current rates of climate disruptions we will be lucky if we have 6 to 8 years.
I am sure that Donald and the Repubs will fix it..... Not!
pscot
(21,024 posts)The longer it takes for the effects to be felt, the worse the damage will be.