Now What? Georgia Power/Southern Built Nuclear To Meet 8,000 Mw Of Demand That Never Appeared
Southern Co. and Georgia Power had the magic formula researched, rehearsed and ready. They saw the potential for rising gas prices and federal legislation to regulate carbon, and they needed to diversify fuel and meet demand. These were good reasons for Georgia Power to build a nuclear power plant, executives told Georgia utility regulators in 2008 and 2009. The Plant Vogtle expansion project would bring low-cost, carbon-free power to Georgia when the reactors started up in 2016 and 2017, officials said. Nationally, having more nuclear power would help diversify the nation's fuel base away from fossil fuels and foreign sources of oil.
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There was one scenario that Georgia Power didn't envision: prolonged low natural gas prices combined with carbon legislation, which would put a price on carbon dioxide. "It's simply because we believe that it's an improbable set of circumstances," Garey Rozier, resource planning manager for Southern Co. Services, said at the time.
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Georgia was also growing to the point that the utility needed to add 8,000 megawatts of generation over the next 10 years to meet demand or replace coal units slated for closure. This included 5,000 MW of natural gas over the next five years to support annual growth demand of between 300 and 500 MW, Burleson said. Without Vogtle, Georgia Power's reliance on natural gas would double by 2018, he said. "We see continued load growth and expiring power purchase agreements. We have to add additional generating capacity just to stay up with load growth," Burleson said.
All of that was before the electric utility industry was upended. The shale revolution has led to an abundance of natural gas, markets have pushed coal out of favor, and demand is flat. Separately, Vogtle got tangled up in lawsuits and has gone through three major contractor changes. The challenges came to a head when the current contractor, Westinghouse Electric Co. LLC, filed for bankruptcy protection because of significantly rising costs at Vogtle and a nuclear project in South Carolina. The company's parent, Toshiba Corp., is also suffering financially from the U.S. nuclear projects, which are billions above their forecast budgets and nearly four years behind schedule.
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