Global Warming Tipped The Scales In Europe's Searing June Heatwave
Global warming gave a clear boost to the searing temperatures that blanketed Western Europe earlier this month — a heat wave that helped fuel deadly wildfires in Portugal. The greenhouse gas-driven warming of the atmosphere has made the intensity and frequency of such extreme heat up to 10 times as likely, according to a new analysis from researchers working with Climate Central’s World Weather Attribution program and several outside partners.
It is the latest such attribution analysis to show that the warming that has occurred over the last century — nearly 2°F (1°C) — has already had a clear influence on such extreme heat events. “Global warming has already put a thumb on the scales; it’s already tipped the odds,” Noah Diffenbaugh, a Stanford University climate scientist who wasn’t involved with the work, said.
The heat wave was the result of hot, dry air moving northward from over northern Africa earlier in the summer season than is typical for such heat events, especially in northwestern Europe. London’s Heathrow Airport had its hottest June day in more than 40 years on June 21, with the temperature reaching 94°F (34.5°C).
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To evaluate the role of global warming in the recent heat wave, the researchers used both historical temperature observations and climate models to see how the odds of such an event have changed over time and to compare the odds in a climate with and without warming, respectively. They found that the likelihood of such a heat wave had at least doubled across the region and was up to 10 times more likely in the worst-hit places, Spain and Portugal. What was once a rare heat event can now happen every 10 to 30 years, and is more likely to happen earlier in the summer.
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http://www.climatecentral.org/news/warming-tipped-june-heat-wave-21585
