First CO2 rise in four years puts pressure on Paris targets

[nitpicker]

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-41941265

First CO2 rise in four years puts pressure on Paris targets

By Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent, Bonn

1 hour ago

From the section Science & Environment

Global emissions of CO2 in 2017 are projected to rise for the first time in four years, dashing hopes that a peak might soon be reached. The main cause of the expected growth has been greater use of coal in China as its economy expanded. Researchers are uncertain if the rise in emissions is a one-off or the start of a new period of CO2 build-up. Scientists say that a global peak in CO2 before 2020 is needed to limit dangerous global warming this century.

The Global Carbon Project has been analysing and reporting on the scale of emissions of CO2 since 2006. Carbon output has grown by about 3% per year in that period, but growth essentially declined or remained flat between 2014 and 2016. The latest figures indicate that in 2017, emissions of CO2 from all human activities grew by about 2% globally. There is some uncertainty about the data but the researchers involved have concluded that emissions are on the rise again.
(snip)

The most important element in causing this rise has been China, which is responsible for around 28% of the global total. Emissions there went up 3.5% in 2017, mainly because of increased coal use, driven in the main by a growing economy. Another important factor in China has been lower water levels in rivers which have seen a drop in the amount of electricity made from hydro-power, with utilities turning to coal and gas to make up the shortfall.

US emissions have continued to decline but the fall has been less than expected. Higher prices saw a drop in the use of natural gas for electricity - with renewables and hydro-power picking up the slack. Coal use has also grown slightly in the US this year, with consumption up about a half of one percent.
(snip)

One common theme around the world is continued use of gas and oil, says Prof Le Quéré. "There have been lots of ups and downs in the use of coal but in the background there has been no weakening in the use of oil and gas. And that is quite worrisome."

The report has been launched in Bonn where UN negotiators are trying to move forward with the rules for the Paris climate agreement.
(snip)

The report is sure to increase tensions in Bonn between developed and developing nations. There is increasing resentment about the fact that all the focus is on future commitments made under the Paris climate agreement but very little on the years before it becomes active. Poorer countries want the richer ones to increase their carbon-cutting actions over the next three years.
(snip)

The new research on carbon emissions has been published simultaneously in the journals Nature Climate Change,Earth System Science Data Discussions and Environmental Research Letters.

[NNadir]

1. This is hardly the "first" CO2 rise in 4 years.

CO2 has been rising continuously at an alarming rate, the highest rate ever observed, all through the 21st century.



If some accountant types are adding up reported emissions and announcing that CO2 rates have been stable, they are obviously missing a great deal.

[eppur_se_muova]

2. True. I think they meant rise in *annual* CO2 emissions -- not just falling behind schedule, but ...

actually reversing the trend. And that's assuming the data are complete !

So it's not just getting worser, it's getting worserer.

[NNadir]

3. I'm sure that's what they "mean," but obviously, the results are very different than the claim...

...which makes the claim misleading.

We have not made any progress against climate change gas release. We are at the worst point ever, and, as they say, rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

[eppur_se_muova]

4. Always suspect editors first, journos second, actual researchers as a last resort. ;)

Clumsy editors are the bane of journalists' existence, and clumsy science journalists the bane of scientists' existence, at least when they work in fields that affect public policy.

Editors have an unfortunate tendency to remove words just to "tighten up" a headline, even when the words are not as superfluous as they think.

[NNadir]

5. My standard joke is that one cannot get a journalism degree if one has passed an introductory...

...science course at a university.

It's basically true. When I was a kid, I used to believe everything written about science in, for example, the New York Times.

Once in a while, they get a few things right, but generally, it's abysmal even in "the paper of record."

I was surprised this weekend to see something that was decently accurate this weekend's Sunday Times, though, on drainage in Houston, but it was an exception rather than the rule.