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Thu May 3, 2018, 07:31 PM

ERCOT hoping the wind blows this summer in Texas to prevent rolling power outages.

This comes from Power, a trade publication for the electric power industry.

Power Magazine 4/30/18 ERCOT Summer Rotating Outages In Texas Still a Possibility.

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) on April 30 updated its summer 2018 planning reserve margin to 11% based on resource updates, but it warned that the regional grid serving most of Texas could still suffer rotating outages under extreme conditions.

In its final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) report for the upcoming summer season, which spans June to September, the grid entity said it expects to have sufficient generation—78,184 MW—to meet a summer peak load forecast of 72,756 MW based on “normal weather conditions.” That forecast, it noted however, is expected to soar 1,600 MW higher than the all-time peak demand record set in August 2016.

The projected reserve margin is below ERCOT’s target of 13.75%. Still, the report presents a more optimistic assessment of ERCOT’s total generation resources than it predicted in its preliminary summer seasonal assessment of resource adequacy (SARA) report released in March. The preliminary report projected a higher summer peak load forecast of 72,974 MW, which ERCOT anticipated it would barely meet with a total resource capacity of 77,658 MW...

...The SARA outlines five potential risk scenarios. The first is modeled on extreme weather conditions based on a long heat wave and devastating drought during the summer of 2011, an event that forced the grid operator to cut power to large industrial users to avoid rolling blackouts. An extreme summer forecast could boost summer demand to 75,958 MW, outstripping available generation resources. The other scenarios anticipate maintenance outages, forced outages, and low wind output.

“Since we do have more resources, that risk is probably reduced a little bit. But again, really, the focus for ERCOT is to make sure that we can quickly respond to those situations—and appropriately—to any type of change in system condition,” Warnken said.

ERCOT has been preparing for tight operating reserves owing to a spate of recent plant retirements—including of major coal baseload generators—and delays in some planned resources.


The bold, of course, is mine.

Don't worry; be happy. Unbearably hot days with stagnant air are surely unknown in Texas.

Wind power is cheap, at least if you don't have to pay for replacing all your food because your refrigerator goes down because of a rolling blackout because, um, the wind isn't blowing on a 100F afternoon.

That of course, won't happen, because, well, because it won't.





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Reply ERCOT hoping the wind blows this summer in Texas to prevent rolling power outages. (Original post)
NNadir May 2018 OP
S.E. TN Liberal May 2018 #1
NNadir May 2018 #3
Eko May 2018 #2

Response to NNadir (Original post)

Thu May 3, 2018, 07:36 PM

1. Let's all send thoughts and prayers to Texas because...

...that always fixes everything.

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Response to S.E. TN Liberal (Reply #1)

Fri May 4, 2018, 05:08 PM

3. They can add praying for wind to praying for rain.

From The Drought Monitor:



Of course, I wouldn't pray too hard, lest they get it all at once, as in Hurricane Harvey.

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Response to NNadir (Original post)

Thu May 3, 2018, 07:56 PM

2. Couple of things you left out of the article.

"Meanwhile, ERCOT has also seen a proliferation of wind and solar resources. On October 27, 2017, (at 4 a.m.), for example, wind generation provided 54% of ERCOT’s power, and wind set an instantaneous wind output record of 16,141 MW on March 31, 2017 (at 8:56 p.m.). “As wind power continues to increase in Texas, ERCOT is working collaboratively with other grid operators and utilities to reliably integrate this generation,” it said. ERCOT has also added a reliability risk desk to closely monitor and respond to wind and solar forecast errors, net load ramps, and inertia levels, and ancillary service needs."
"Interconnection requests reached historic levels in 2017 with nearly 200 requests. Utility-scale solar projects accounted for 56% of those requests."

Here is another article from the same site.
Could Advanced Reactor Technology Save the Nuclear Industry? http://www.powermag.com/could-advanced-reactor-technology-save-the-nuclear-industry/
"Constructing a new nuclear power plant is a massive undertaking. It involves years of planning and countless hurdles just to get the necessary regulatory approval to break ground. Once physical work begins, risks abound, and delays and cost overruns seem to be the norm rather than the exception. In the end, almost half of all nuclear reactors ordered in the U.S. have not been completed, leaving more than a few companies bankrupt in the process."
The bold is of course mine.

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