New Fuels Bring End of Oil Era Closer

[mahatmakanejeeves]

This is on page B1 of yesterday's paper.

MONEYBEAT

Energy Journal: The End of Oil Is Coming Soon, Some Experts Say

By Neanda Salvaterra
Sep 11, 2018 7:40 am ET

A daily digest of The Wall Street Journal’s coverage of energy companies, commodity markets and the forces that shape them.
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NEW FUELS BRING END OF OIL ERA CLOSER

The Era of Oil is coming to a close but experts and corporate analysts disagree about just when that will happen, writes WSJ’s Sarah Kent.

The time left before global demand for crude peaks is increasingly tightening, according to new projections from industry analysts. Two reports published this week point to an end of oil’s growth within the next five years, far earlier than many in the industry have been expecting.

Though most forecasts of oil’s demise project a long tail, the estimates put increased pressure on big oil companies to clarify how they intend to confront a looming energy transition. ... Demand for fossil fuels will peak around 2023, edged out by solar and wind, according to an analysis by London-based think tank the Carbon Tracker Initiative.

Norwegian risk-management company DNV GL takes a similar view in an analysis released in London on Monday. ... Investors are increasingly sitting up and taking notice, demanding big oil companies outline how resilient their businesses are to an energy transition.

Earlier this year, BP PLC said the world’s appetite for oil could plateau and then begin to decline between 2035 and 2040. ... Meanwhile, oil prices edged up following an attack at Libya’s state-run oil company.
....

[zipplewrath]

1. Paywall

I would have been interested in reading more. There have been both predictions of "peak oil" and "peak demand" for decades. They have always been wrong. I'm still dubious about peak demand because of the emerging 2nd and 3rd world demands. And some of these emerging areas are some of the most populated areas on earth. I also am a bit dubious we've reached peak oil yet because of the emerging explorations in the polar regions. Quite honestly I suspect peak oil will only be achieved because the price of oil may drop to cause a drop in exploration.

The world continues to create demand for greater and greater energy use. Quite honestly, when you look at the losses inherent in the grid system, it would seem that creating distributed energy collection (which is generally wind and solar) will improve efficiencies which is a form or demand reduction.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. Most public libraries subscribe to The Wall Street Journal.

The article is in Tuesday's dead tree edition. Also, most libraries have digital subscriptions to a few newspapers. You should be able to read it online that way.

Finally, I've heard of people getting in through Google. Try this:

https://news.google.com/search?q=new%20fuels%20bring%20end%20of%20oil%20era%20nearer&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen

Thanks for writing.

[zipplewrath]

3. Thanks, that worked

The International Energy Agency—whose outlooks are often used as an industry benchmark—has also published scenarios in which oil consumption peaks in the 2020s on the basis of aggressive climate action. But its central assumption is still that oil demand will continue to grow into the 2040s. That is also the view of U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp.

This makes a bit more sense. And I am always dubious about the ability of industry and government analysts to have much accuracy in predictions 20+ years out.