Wind power wildly exceeding DOE goals

[kristopher]

Last edited Tue Apr 17, 2012, 02:47 PM - Edit history (1)

I saw this headline and asked myself, "how good is that in relation to our goals?"

U.S. Wind Energy Capacity Growth Up 31 Percent in 2011
By Ehren Goossens and Justin Doom on April 12, 2012

U.S. wind power capacity grew 31 percent in 2011, accounting for 35 percent of all new electricity generation capacity, the American Wind Energy Association said.

The U.S. wind industry installed 6.8 gigawatts last year, to reach total capacity of 46.9 gigawatts, according to an annual market report released by the industry group in New York today.

More than 60 percent of last year’s installations, about 3.4 gigawatts, occurred in the fourth quarter, due to seasonal weather and the expiration of the Treasury grant option, which offered to cover as much as 30 percent of a project’s cost, according to AWEA. In order to qualify, developers had to start projects before the end of last year.

...About 3 percent of U.S. power came from wind last year. The industry is seeking to provide 20 percent by 2030, AWEA said. South Dakota led in terms of total electricity produced at 22.3 percent, followed by Iowa at 18.8 percent. California led with 921 megawatts installed, followed by Illinois with 693 megawatts and Iowa with 647 megawatts.

...

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-12/kansas-texas-led-31-percent-gain-in-u-dot-s-dot-wind-energy-capacity-in-2011

From AWEA:
Total U.S. Utility-Scale Wind Power Capacity, Through 4th Quarter of 2011: 46,916 MW
U.S. Wind Power Capacity, Installed in 2011: 6,816 MW
U.S. Wind Power Capacity, Installed in 4th Quarter of 2011: 3,444MW
U.S. Wind Power Capacity Under Construction as of 4th Quarter of 2011: 8,320 MW

U.S. Wind Power Capacity, Installed in Previous Years (including small-wind):
2010: 5,216 MW
2009: 10,010 MW
2008: 8,366 MW
2007: 5,258 MW

U.S. Wind Resource Potential, Onshore (Source: NREL): 10,400,000 MW
U.S. Wind Resource Potential, Offshore (Source: NREL): 4,150,000 MW

Total 15.5 TW

Now here is the real point of this post. Compare the above to DOE forecasts and hopes as reported in the 2000 NAS review of DOE renewable programs:
...in June 1999 Secretary Richardson announced a DOE initiative, Wind Powering America, to increase the use of wind energy in the United States (DOE, 1999g). The goals of the initiative are: (1) to provide at least 5 percent of the nation’s electricity by wind generation by the year 2020, to have installed more than 5,000 MW by 2005, and to have installed more than 10,000 MW by 2010
p.73 Renewable Power Pathways:␣ A Review of The U.S. Department of Energy's Renewable Energy Programs
NAS

Goal: 5% by 2020
Status: 3% end 2011

Goal: Total 5GW by 2005
Achieved: 2.4GW in 2005 for total capacity of 9.1GW

[kristopher]

1. Oooops forgot one

Goal: 5% by 2020
Status: 3% end 2011

Goal: Total 5GW by 2005
Achieved: 2.4GW in 2005 for total capacity of 9.1GW
180% of goal

Goal: Total of 10GW installed by 2010
Achieved: 10 GW in 2009 alone with a total installed capacity at the end of 2010 of 40.1GW
400% of goal

[bananas]

2. Faster than expected!

[GliderGuider]

3. It may be exceeding its goals, but is it meeting our needs?

Especially if one defines our primary need as "to dramatically reduce our CO2 emissions".

There's no question that wind is the only low-carbon source in the USA that is increasing its energy output significantly. Nuclear, hydro and all other renewables are flat, so the real race is between fossil fuels and wind. The burning question is "Have we left it too late?"



And it remains an uncomfortable fact that to this date the only thing that has been shown to reduce our FF consumption is economic decline...

[kristopher]

4. That is based on a huge lack of information and understanding

If you think anything can turn our emissions trends around on a dime, you are delusional from the start. Since that seems to be the predicate to your post I can only say you might want to discard it and revisit the OP and the way the actual trends are destroying the forecast trends of the DOE and other members of the established energy order. When you factor in the rate of growth of the other renewable sources and the total potential of all of them then we can at least see a realistic path to the goal.
The real uncertainty we face is how far we are along the trajectory of climate change. If we are so far into the process that no matter what we have set into motion a cascade of spiraling feedbacks then so be it. Every plan, however, has been looking at the process of changing our energy system taking until at least 2040 - 2050. If these trends hold steady we should do better than that.

From AWEA:
Total U.S. Utility-Scale Wind Power Capacity, Through 4th Quarter of 2011: 46,916 MW
U.S. Wind Power Capacity, Installed in 2011: 6,816 MW
U.S. Wind Power Capacity, Installed in 4th Quarter of 2011: 3,444MW
U.S. Wind Power Capacity Under Construction as of 4th Quarter of 2011: 8,320 MW

U.S. Wind Power Capacity, Installed in Previous Years (including small-wind):
2010: 5,216 MW
2009: 10,010 MW
2008: 8,366 MW
2007: 5,258 MW

U.S. Wind Resource Potential, Onshore (Source: NREL): 10,400,000 MW
U.S. Wind Resource Potential, Offshore (Source: NREL): 4,150,000 MW

Total 15.5 TW



Now here is the real point of this post. Compare the above to DOE forecasts and hopes as reported in the 2000 NAS review of DOE renewable programs:

...in June 1999 Secretary Richardson announced a DOE initiative, Wind Powering America, to increase the use of wind energy in the United States (DOE, 1999g). The goals of the initiative are: (1) to provide at least 5 percent of the nation’s electricity by wind generation by the year 2020, to have installed more than 5,000 MW by 2005, and to have installed more than 10,000 MW by 2010
p.73 Renewable Power Pathways:␣ A Review of The U.S. Department of Energy's Renewable Energy Programs
NAS


Goal: 5% by 2020
Status: 3% end 2011

Goal: Total 5GW by 2005
Achieved: 2.4GW in 2005 for total capacity of 9.1GW
180% of goal

Goal: Total of 10GW installed by 2010
Achieved: 10 GW in 2009 alone with a total installed capacity at the end of 2010 of 40.1GW
400% of goal

[GliderGuider]

5. No, it's based on EIA data.

I know we can't turn emissions around on a dime. I'm just noting that we have a loooooooooooooooong way to go. I don't think 2040-2050 is really going to cut it, unless we're all OK with an eventual 6C rise in temperatures and carbonic oceans.

I'd love to see wind hit the same output as nuclear by 2020. If that happened you might hear me cheering instead of prodding. Until then, I'll keep prodding.

[kristopher]

6. Is that what you call it, "prodding"?

I'd call it mindless negativism. There is no "there" there.

[GliderGuider]

7. It's a big old wonderful world out there, with lots of room for all our ideas.

My gardening and mindless negativity, your pickup truck and mindless positivity.

Lots of room, lots of room...

[kristopher]

8. You don't drive?

I do garden. In fact I have 3 acres I'm cultivating into a Japanese garden (with 4 "box gardens" for veg.), which is why I use a pickup. It has averaged less than 8000 miles per year over the 13 years I've owned it.

You don't drive?

[GliderGuider]

9. Not much. I have an older Mazda that mostly sits in the driveway.

I'm a major friend of public transit and bus passes. I'm glad to learn about your gardening, that's something I didn't know about you. Thanks!