Pew: World population expected to virtually stop growing by 2100

[jpak]

https://thehill.com/homenews/news/448909-pew-world-population-expected-to-virtually-stop-growing-by-2100

The world's population is expected to virtually stop growing by 2100, according to research released by Pew Research Center on Monday.

Pew analyzed data from the United Nations indicating falling global fertility rates will lead to a population of about 10.9 billion people at the end of the century, with what analysts said is annual growth of less than 0.1 percent.

It's a steep decline from past patterns, Pew notes. The world population grew by about 1 to 2 percent between 1950 and today, increasing the number of people by about 5.2 billion.

Global fertility rates are expected to drop from an average of 2.5 births per woman today to 1.9 births per woman by 2100, according to the research.

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[SWBTATTReg]

1. Perhaps nature and genes kicking in? NT

[Calculating]

2. That will be a little too late lol

11 Billion people? The world cannot even handle the current amount, not even half of it. We need more like 1-2 Billion people in order to have any semblance of sustainability.

[rampartc]

6. the georgia guidestones call for 500 million

I do not advocate dramatic means to get there, but the number sounds reasonable.

[NickB79]

3. This is laughable

My hypothesis is that we'll peak around 8.5 billion by 2050-2060. By 2100 we'll have damaged the global biosphere so fully and warmed the planet so much that we'll be at 6-7 billion and dropping from war, heat deaths, disease and starvation.

[The_jackalope]

7. Those are reasonable expectations, although

I would prefer a much steeper decline. The world currently has about 80 million excess births per year. I'd like to see that reversed, to 80 million excess deaths per year. That would drop us from 9 billion in 2050 to 5 billion in 2100.

However, to ensure the future health of the biosphere and its ability to continue to support life, we ought to consider a total world population of 100 million as an absolute upper limit, and 20 million would be better. We won't of course, and in any event we couldn't get there through human agency unless it's a "mad scientist" scenario involving a secret pandemic. The most likely route is through a breakdown of world food supplies caused by a continuous stream of extreme weather events. We're already seeing what looks like the leading edge of this problem. An Arctic methane burp releasing half a teratonne of C over a couple of years would help that right along.

One can only hope.

[LonePirate]

4. Climate change will stop population growth well before 2100.

This planet is too small and too fragile to sustain unfettered human population growth for much longer.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

5. I recently read Empty Planet

by by Darrel Bricker and John Ibbitson. They point out that in most of the world, human reproduction is at or below replacement rate, and birth rates are declining precipitously pretty much everywhere else. I believe they see global population to start declining before the end of this century. The U.N. consistently goes with high estimates of population growth, and almost seems oblivious to the reality of the decline in birth rates in so much of the world.

They go into a lot of detail, and look closely at several different countries. I read it as a library book so I don't have a copy handy to get specifics to post here. But it's an amazing book and needs to be more widely read.