Army War College Paper: Expect Interlocking Collapses In Next Few Decades: Grid, Food, Lethal Heat

[hatrack]

https://climateandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2019/07/implications-of-climate-change-for-us-army_army-war-college_2019.pdf

According to a new U.S. Army report, Americans could face a horrifically grim future from climate change involving blackouts, disease, thirst, starvation and war. The study found that the US military itself might also collapse. This could all happen over the next two decades, the report notes. The senior US government officials who wrote the report are from several key agencies including the Army, Defense Intelligence Agency, and NASA. The study called on the Pentagon to urgently prepare for the possibility that domestic power, water, and food systems might collapse due to the impacts of climate change as we near mid-century.

EDIT

The report paints a frightening portrait of a country falling apart over the next 20 years due to the impacts of climate change on “natural systems such as oceans, lakes, rivers, ground water, reefs, and forests.” Current infrastructure in the US, the report says, is woefully underprepared: “Most of the critical infrastructures identified by the Department of Homeland Security are not built to withstand these altered conditions.”

Some 80 percent of US agricultural exports and 78 percent of imports are water-borne. This means that episodes of flooding due to climate change could leave lasting damage to shipping infrastructure, posing “a major threat to US lives and communities, the US economy and global food security,” the report notes.

At particular risk is the US national power grid, which could shut down due to “the stressors of a changing climate,” especially changing rainfall levels:

“The power grid that serves the United States is aging and continues to operate without a coordinated and significant infrastructure investment. Vulnerabilities exist to electricity-generating power plants, electric transmission infrastructure and distribution system components,” it states.

EDIT

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/mbmkz8/us-military-could-collapse-within-20-years-due-to-climate-change-report-commissioned-by-pentagon-says?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

According to a new report prepared by the US Army and, commissioned by the Pentagon, found that the next couple of decades will be so chaotic due to a warming climate that we will be unable to adapt in time. Our inability to change will be the result of years of inaction by ‘leaders' who have kicked the proverbial can of worms down the road for future generations to solve.

The report predicts that within the next twenty years, our power grid infrastructure will be unable to adapt to the expected extreme temperatures that are bearing down upon us. During this time, people will be hungry, thirsty, and unable to cope with unbearable heat. The key players in the study were NASA, the military, and defense intelligence agencies, and they warned the Pentagon 'to urgently prepare for the possibility that domestic power, water, and food systems might collapse due to the impacts of climate change as we reach mid-century.'

As these impacts intensify, the military itself may collapse, they suggest, 'as it tries to respond to climate collapse. It could lose the capacity to contain threats in the US and could wilt into mission failure abroad due to inadequate water supplies'.

The report is lengthy but easy to read, unlike most climate journals. Skimming the stories is recommended

Changing levels of rainfall put the U.S.’s energy grid at risk. Over 7.3 billion people currently inhabit the planet, a little more than half of which live in cities.82 In the United States alone, ten cities contain more than one million people, and more than 35 with a population of over 500,000.83,84 The power grid that serves the United States is aging and continues to operate without a coordinated and significant infrastructure investment. Vulnerabilities exist to electricity-generating power plants, electric transmission infrastructure and distribution system components. Power transformers average over 40 years of age and 70 percent of transmission lines are 25 years or older. The U.S. national power grid is susceptible to coordinated cyber or physical attacks; electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attacks; space weather; and other natural events, to include the stressors of a changing climate.85,86

Effects of climate abnormalities over time introduce the possibility of taxing an already fragile system through increased energy requirements triggered by extended periods of heat, drought, cold, etc. If the power grid infrastructure were to collapse, the United States would experience significant

• Loss of perishable foods and medications

• Loss of water and wastewater distribution systems

• Loss of heating/air conditioning and electrical lighting systems.

• Loss of heating/air conditioning and electrical lighting systems

• Loss of computer, telephone, and communications systems (including airline flights, satellite networks and GPS services)

• Loss of public transportation systems

• Loss of fuel distribution systems and fuel pipelines

• Loss of all electrical systems that do not have back-up power87

EDIT

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/10/26/1892307/-US-Army-finds-that-the-military-could-collapse-within-twenty-years-thanks-to-climate-chaos?utm_campaign=recent

[Kitchari]

1. Sobering. n/t

[pscot]

2. We certainly live in an interesting time

[Mr.Bill]

12. For those not around in the 60s,

those times were pretty damn interesting, too. I'm 66 and I have had to adapt to much change in my lifetime. It would be a curse to future generations if the did not face change and also have to adapt. They will have successes and failures, but I have faith they will prevail. They are at least more diverse than we were, and that is a great asset.

[Newest Reality]

3. From what I recall,

Our power grid is still vulnerable to the impact of a MCE, (massive coronal ejection). If it is of a significant magnitude and ejects towards the Earth, whatever side is facing the Sun at the time could experience a major blow to its power infrastructure and more. We need to change out transformers and do other things to armor the grid for that.

So far, I haven't heard much about updating and reinforcing the grid for that. It could push a country into the stone-age for long, long time because recovery would be difficult and arduous.

But hey, don't we need more gloom and doom these days? The brain can take the threat to be real and react chemically, even if it is just a hypothetical.

[hatrack]

7. Last time that happened was 1859 (when the only electrical system was the telegraph)

The solar storm of 1859 (also known as the Carrington Event)[1] was a powerful geomagnetic storm during solar cycle 10 (1855–1867). A solar coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetosphere and induced one of the largest geomagnetic storms on record, September 1–2, 1859. The associated "white light flare" in the solar photosphere was observed and recorded by British astronomers Richard C. Carrington (1826–1875) and Richard Hodgson (1804–1872). The storm caused strong auroral displays and wrought havoc with telegraph systems. The now-standard unique IAU identifier for this flare is SOL1859-09-01.

A solar storm of this magnitude occurring today would cause widespread electrical disruptions, blackouts and damage due to extended outages of the electrical grid.[2][3] The solar storm of 2012 was of similar magnitude, but it passed Earth's orbit without striking the planet, missing by nine days.[4]

EDIT

On September 1–2, 1859, one of the largest recorded geomagnetic storms (as recorded by ground-based magnetometers) occurred. Auroras were seen around the world, those in the northern hemisphere as far south as the Caribbean; those over the Rocky Mountains in the U.S. were so bright that the glow woke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning.[7] People in the northeastern United States could read a newspaper by the aurora's light.[13] The aurora was visible from the poles to low latitude areas such as south-central Mexico,[14][15] Queensland, Cuba, Hawaii,[16] southern Japan and China,[17] and even at lower latitudes very close to the equator, such as in Colombia.[18] Estimates of the storm strength range from ?800 nT to ?1750 nT.[19]

Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed, in some cases giving telegraph operators electric shocks.[20] Telegraph pylons threw sparks.[21] Some telegraph operators could continue to send and receive messages despite having disconnected their power supplies.[22]

On Saturday, September 3, 1859, the Baltimore American and Commercial Advertiser reported:

Those who happened to be out late on Thursday night had an opportunity of witnessing another magnificent display of the auroral lights. The phenomenon was very similar to the display on Sunday night, though at times the light was, if possible, more brilliant, and the prismatic hues more varied and gorgeous. The light appeared to cover the whole firmament, apparently like a luminous cloud, through which the stars of the larger magnitude indistinctly shone. The light was greater than that of the moon at its full, but had an indescribable softness and delicacy that seemed to envelop everything upon which it rested. Between 12 and 1 o'clock, when the display was at its full brilliancy, the quiet streets of the city resting under this strange light, presented a beautiful as well as singular appearance.[23]

In 1909, an Australian gold miner C.F. Herbert retold his observations in a letter to The Daily News in Perth:

I was gold-digging at Rokewood, about four miles from Rokewood township (Victoria). Myself and two mates looking out of the tent saw a great reflection in the southern heavens at about 7 o'clock p.m., and in about half an hour, a scene of almost unspeakable beauty presented itself, lights of every imaginable color were issuing from the southern heavens, one color fading away only to give place to another if possible more beautiful than the last, the streams mounting to the zenith, but always becoming a rich purple when reaching there, and always curling round, leaving a clear strip of sky, which may be described as four fingers held at arm's length. The northern side from the zenith was also illuminated with beautiful colors, always curling round at the zenith, but were considered to be merely a reproduction of the southern display, as all colors south and north always corresponded. It was a sight never to be forgotten, and was considered at the time to be the greatest aurora recorded... The rationalist and pantheist saw nature in her most exquisite robes, recognising, the divine immanence, immutable law, cause, and effect. The superstitious and the fanatical had dire forebodings, and thought it a foreshadowing of Armageddon and final dissolution.[24]

EDIT

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

[Mc Mike]

4. This is war. National Security Threat, no doubt.

So the big money people behind Rump want fascism, to hold onto power in the face of their destruction of everything.

[Firestorm49]

5. I fear for my grandchildren's future.

[pazzyanne]

6. As do I, Firestorm49. As do I!

[panfluteman]

9. I have no grandchildren to fear for.

[Delmette2.0]

17. Neither do i.

I do worry about my sister's grandchildren.

[pazzyanne]

19. I also have nieces, nephews, great neices and great nephews I fear for as well.

[Skittles]

23. you don't have to be a grandparent to fear for children

[Susan Calvin]

10. I fear for mine.

Statistically, I should still be around in 20 years.

[Mr.Bill]

11. I try to teach mine to be

intelligent, resourceful and resilient. That's really all one person can do.

[NickB79]

14. My daughter is 9

Fuck it, I've basically gone full doomsday prepper at this point just to ensure she'll have a place to fall back to when civilization starts to collapse. A couple acres of land in a rural area, fruit trees, nut trees, vegetable gardens, prairie restoration for pollinators, a stream nearby with fish and fresh water, a wood stove, an air source heat pump, chickens, and guns. Future investments will be a new barn, goats, solar off-grid, wind turbine, a bigger greenhouse, an EV vehicle, root cellar and more guns.

This isn't how I thought I'd spend the rest of my life, but it must be done to keep my little girl safe

[SCVDem]

8. I see someone just read

Al Gore's book, "An Inconvenient Truth".

Now realize the seeds of ridicule were planted by Reagan on the White House roof.

Jimmy Carter was right.

[Hangdog Slim]

13. I wonder . . .

I wonder if this will be the lead story on Fox News. I suspect so seeing as how they love the military so much

[CaptainTruth]

15. And look at what Trump is doing to our food supply:

Bankrupting our farmers, hurting our ability to grow our own food.

Allowing use of pesticides that kill bees, critical pollinators, hurting our ability to grow our own food.

Deporting immigrant labor that harvests our fruits & vegetables, hurting our ability to grow our own food.

Accelerating climate change by ignoring it & pursuing pro-petroleum policies that will reduce crop yields, hurting our ability to grow our own food.

Anyone else see a pattern here?

[PatrickforO]

16. Already seeing power grid problems in CA.

This is why we need a green new deal. After Trump and his perverted, psychopathic administration, we'll have to redouble efforts.

[Auggie]

18. 20 years is the blink of an eye, too.

When does it start to get uglier? Ten years? Five? Two?

[Ponietz]

20. K&R

Any coherent political agenda should include these findings and recommendations.

[defacto7]

21. So, we're on a collision course with reality

whether anyone wants to accept it or not. Some of us have seen it coming for 30 years, 10 years, 3 years, or just now, but there it is and here we are. Now what?
We have to decide what the real priorities are. Is it combating climate change or infrastructure replacement and overhaul? I speculate we have both the technology and the economics worldwide to do both but what we don't have is the will, the single mindedness, the public awareness or the leadership. With that in mind I postulate we will do neither.
The earth is going to reclaim itself with us or without us. With our egocentric systems failing and greed, apathy and stupid reigning supreme we're basically toast. Whether we survive in the end doesn't really matter. What matters is if we finally join the ecology of the planet or just keep fighting a lost battle of wills and die.
The bible says to "fill the earth and subdue it" the earth says "pffft".

[progree]

22. In fairness, our President is building a lot of infrastructure

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142385455

Trump says US is building a wall in Colorado -- a state that doesn't border Mexico, CNN, 10/23/19
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/10/23/politics/trump-us-building-wall-colorado/index.html

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

On Edit - I meant this to be a reply to the thread. Oh well.