What To Watch For (And Where) On Forest Policy In 2020, After A Decade Of Reversals, Murders

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Brazil

Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon hit an 11 year high for the year ended July 31, 2019. But forest clearing has rapidly accelerated since then, setting up 2020 as a significantly worse year for the Amazon rainforest. With the world fast forgetting about what transpired in the Amazon the past few months, look for the Bolsonaro administration to continue rolling back environmental regulation and law enforcement, opening up more of the Amazon to conversion by ranchers and farmers, and questioning the motives and integrity of those working to protect the environment. The situation in the Amazon looks to get far worse before it gets better.

Pushback against some Bolsonaro policies will probably continue in 2020 from Brazil’s court system, independent public prosecutors at both the federal and state level, and Congress. With civil society increasingly marginalized in Brazil under the current administration, the most likely near-term catalyst for halting or reversin the recent deterioration of the situation in the Amazon would be pressure from constituencies that support Bolsonaro: farmers and ranchers concerned about the impact of drought or lawlessness on their productivity; Brazilian companies with exposure in eco-conscious markets, especially Western Europe; or religious leaders, especially evangelical Protestants. And large-scale public protest — especially around corruption, abuse of power, or economic malaise — is always a possibility.





Destabilization of tropical forests

In a commentary published this month in Science Advances, Carlos Nobre and Thomas Lovejoy warned that the Amazon rainforest has reached a critical tipping point where the biome is showing signs of shifting from humid tropical forest with well-developed canopy structure toward wooded savanna similar to that found in the Chaco and Cerrado. But the Amazon isn’t alone. Studies in Borneo, Sumatra, and the Congo Basin show that these great rainforests are also experiencing drying trends and higher incidence of fire. We shouldn’t expect to see a big change in 2020—especially given that we’re coming out of an El Niño event—but we can expect to see the publication of more data on how forests are changing.

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https://news.mongabay.com/2019/12/rainforests-in-2020-10-things-to-watch/

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1. K&R