Emissions Are Way Down. No, That's Not All Good News for the Environment.

[Rhiannon12866]

Chaos in the oil sector could actually intensify climate change.

As the coronavirus cripples world economies, greenhouse gas emissions are plummeting: This year, they could drop by as much as 5.5 percent—the largest decrease ever recorded. On Monday, the price of oil went negative, meaning storing oil now costs more than the oil itself. Since we’re burning less gas and fuel, air pollution has dropped 30 percent in northeastern cities, and Los Angeles’ notorious smoggy skyline has cleared.

You might be thinking all this is great news for the environment. It’s a nice idea—but the real story is more complicated. “You don’t want companies collapsing like this,” says Andrew Logan, oil and gas director of Ceres, a think tank focused on sustainable investment. “Even the most ardent climate advocate shouldn’t wish for a chaotic transition in this sector. A chaotic transition brings all sort of pain to workers and also the environment.”

It helps to think of COVID-19 as a test run—a very painful one—of what an industry in decline will look like. “We’re seeing, as is case the now, what the cliff looks like if everyone shuts down at the same time,” Logan says.

With a glut of supply, North America producers Exxon, Shell, Devon Energy, and Cenovus Energy have already collectively announced spending cuts this year totaling $50 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. In North Dakota, Trump donor Harold Hamm’s Continental Resources drilling company has cut output by 30 percent the next two months. In Canada, the famously destructive tar sands are too expensive to mine and refine on oil prices this cheap. Even the Southwest’s Permian Basin, the most productive region for oil and gas in the United States, is expected to see dramatic closures.

Environmentalists are worried about what comes next, because of the many unintended consequences of market chaos. For starters, when gas prices tank, Americans will likely start buying more cars and taking more road trips, driving up demand all over again.

Other environmental problems aren’t quite so obvious. Lorne Stockman, a senior research analyst with the climate advocacy group Oil Change International, worries that the coming bankruptcies this year “are an environmental nightmare in the making,” with “wells left to rot as bankruptcy proceedings are going through.”


Much more: https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2020/04/oil-prices-are-below-zero-no-thats-not-all-good-news-for-the-environment/



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[2naSalit]

1. The transition will

only be ugly if they make it so.

[Rhiannon12866]

2. And we can't underestimate the greed and disregard for environmental issues

Which has been so prevalent among Trump and his cronies.

[2naSalit]

3. True.

The whole world is getting really pissed at them and, I'm hoping, this time out for humans will have an impact on how much we'll put up with after this. I suspect not much. And it's not like there's another planet they can go to as an escape from the rest of us.

[Rhiannon12866]

4. The key, of course, is getting rid of Trump

Though it's going to take a long time to undo all the damage he's done.

[2naSalit]

5. Sadly, I agree.

[kurtcagle]

6. Not to mention chaotic effects

I just have to wonder what happens when a fairly constant stream of heat in various parts of the world suddenly shut down, whether weather patterns are going to shift in unpredictable ways. I've already noticed here in Washington State that the patterns that had become normal for March and April (typically long stretches of rain) have shifted to dryer patterns that were more typical when I first arrived here thirty years ago.

[Rhiannon12866]

7. The weather has changed here in the Northeast, too

Here in NE NY we typically have such high snowbanks that you take your life in your hands just trying to make a left turn in the middle of winter. This year I didn't notice that so much, not to mention the record cold temperatures all over the area. And I've spent my entire life living in the Northeast. I used to wish that I'd been born in Arizona instead.

[Rhiannon12866]

8. That said, I just took my dog out and there's snow on the ground!

We have gotten snow here in April, occasionally as late as May. It's just a "dusting," but it stuck!

[haricotblue]

9. Not worried in the short term

I keep reading about this wave of purchases of gas guzzlers. With what money? Seems like most consumers are burning through savings -- the minority that actually have savings to burn through. Not sure new car purchases are going to be first on the list. They might delay purchasing newer, more environmentally-friendly vehicles, but that's got to be a small effect.
Much more concerned about governments rolling back regulations to help businesses get going.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

10. Let us deal with the wolf at the hearth before those imagined outside the door.