Colorado State Forecast - Another "Above Avg" Atlantic Hurricane Season: 17 Named Storms, 8 Canes
Experts at Colorado State University announced the results of their first long-range forecast for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, calling for above-average activity. It comes on the heels of the most storm-packed season on record in 2020, during which an unprecedented 30 named storms formed. It’s set to become the sixth-consecutive season with above-average activity, and there’s a chance it could even approach “extra active” status. The forecasters are calling for 17 named storms, compared with an average of 12.1, and eight hurricanes, compared with an average of 6.4.
The forecast is unwelcome news to hard-hit residents of the Gulf Coast, many of whom are still recovering from a flurry of high-end impacts in recent years, including that of Hurricane Laura last year and Michael, Harvey and others. The Bahamas, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Virgin Islands and Central America have also suffered direct strikes from major hurricanes since 2016.
In their outlook, the Colorado State scientists are calling for four major hurricanes — up from a 30-year average of 2.7 — to swirl through the Atlantic this year; major hurricanes have winds in the Category 3 range or higher, corresponding to 111 mph or greater.
EDIT
Last season, Klotzbach’s forecast was exactly the same as this year’s apropos to predicted activity, and it also called for four major hurricanes. The season wound up being about 21 percent more active than he had expected, with respect to how much energy was expended by named storms, and there were half a dozen major hurricanes. While it’s impossible to reliably pin down the specifics of storms that may form in advance, Klotzbach’s forecasts have historically demonstrated considerable skill in identifying features that support above- or below-average seasons.
EDIT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/08/atlantic-hurricane-forecast-colorado-state/
