1.5C Is Knocking At The Door, And We Have An Oil Company CEO "Leading" Global Climate Talks
Within the next five years, the world is likely to experience at least one year in which the global average surface temperature exceeds 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. That was the stark prediction of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) this week, in its climate forecast. Straying beyond 1.5C could lead to potentially irreversible effects on the global climate system, scientists have warned, including the collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the abrupt melting of permafrost, rising sea levels and bleaching coral reefs. For these reasons, the 1.5C limit is at the heart of the 2015 Paris climate agreement, which bound countries to hold global temperature rises “well below 2C” and “pursuing efforts” to 1.5C.
Breaching the 1.5C threshold in one or even two years will not be enough to invalidate the Paris agreement. The rise would have to be sustained over several years or more before such a judgment could be drawn, and the WMO has said it is still possible temperatures could fall back again slightly. But it would be a huge blow to global climate action and a terrifying reminder of how close we are to the precipice of irretrievable harm.
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Any Cop would be challenging under such dire circumstances. For Cop28, there is an added twist. It will take place in Dubai, hosted by the United Arab Emirates, a leading oil and gas producer. And the official chosen to preside over the summit – Sultan Al Jaber – is the chief executive of the country’s national oil company, Adnoc, which is planning a big expansion of production capacity. A diplomat from one developed country said: “It could not be much worse.” Another said: “You could not make this stuff up.”
Jaber’s appointment in January was greeted with disbelief and dismay by climate campaigners and experts around the world. “If I were asked how to make Cop28 a success, I would not put the head of a fossil fuel company in charge of organising it,” said Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate at the Grantham Institute, at Imperial College London. “I would not invite lobbyists from fossil fuel companies. I would try to see that everything was done to remove fossil fuels from the energy supply globally as soon as possible.” Since his appointment, Jaber has attracted further controversy. He has invited the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, to the summit, to the outrage of human rights campaigners. He has also hired David Canzini, a former Downing Street operator who helped to kibosh renewable energy plans when advising Boris Johnson, and fanned Liz Truss’s enthusiasm for fossil fuels.
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jun/02/window-closing-cop28-change-course-climate-dubai
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