Hospice for Humanity

[GliderGuider]

George Mobus is getting gloomier every day. I think he's absolutely correct.

Hospice for Humanity

My message, playing the role of a modern day Cassandra (and there are actually a few of us doing so, like Catton) is basically the same. Civilization is doomed to collapse on a global scale. Humanity is doomed to contraction simply because it takes our modern kind of civilization, based on cheap, high power energy sources, to support the amount of biomass that the human population represents (which includes food crops and animals, pets, ornamental plants, etc.) Civilization runs on that cheap energy and the availability of that is starting into decline. I know the media and so-called experts are declaring that we are awash in oil. Well, in part that is because many folk are already feeling too poor to buy the fuels that come from oil. In part it is because in our desperation we are turning to much more expensive sources like tar sands and shale oils. Even so, the rate of increase in oil extraction is still decelerating relative to what it was even 20 years ago.

But that isn't the real issue. The issue is net energy available to do physical and physiological work. Net energy is what you have left over after you account for all the energy inputs it took to get the next increment of raw energy out and processed to a usable form. In simple economic terms it is the energy profit that is applied to supporting civilization and that profit has been diminishing at an increasing rate over the last thirty years or more. Moreover, the population has continued to increase meaning that there is less per capita net energy. And that is why there are so many poor people in the world. And that is why so many formerly middle class people are getting poorer every day.

I would not be surprised if fifty years hence more than fifty percent of the able-bodied population, that is all women and men between the ages of, say, ten and fifty-five would be engaged in growing food plants, processing and preserving, and transporting/distributing food products. I won't speculate on what kinds of food are going to be possible. I do suspect there will be a good deal less meat in most diets, but that is likely to be conditioned by regional influences such as range land, etc. The mix of vegetables, grains, and fruits will be based on local climate. Those of us in the Pacific Northwest can essentially kiss winter-time tomatoes goodbye (no plastic greenhouses either since plastic is a product made from petroleum-based feedstock), and with a few exceptions we might be largely without tomatoes all year round. Every region will need to find what grows best and what mix of food plants will provide the maximum yield and balanced nutrition.

Unfortunately, as I have argued often, the vast majority of human beings are neither wise nor understanding. I imagine they will deny any need to consider this concept until they are already suffering mightily and it is too late. I suffer no illusions that a plan of action such as this will be undertaken. I've largely come to the conclusion that there is not one world leader who has the wherewithal to make it clear to the people what the future will bring. They either don't grasp it, or they just want to hold onto a cushy job as long as they can, so are willing to lie through their teeth. You will have to decide about your own leaders, which they are, dumb idiots or lairs. In fact, I've come to the conclusion that just holding the job as leader today means that you are one or the other. Who in their right mind would want to have the job if they fully understood the consequences?

[GliderGuider]

1. My comment

George Mobus has the powerful gift of straightforward, uncompromising honesty in the face of immense tragedy.

I often wonder why those of us who have had his same vision continue to torture ourselves with daydream of "What could be, if only we could just..." when we know too damned well all the reasons from ecology, energy and culture to psychology and evolutionary biology why "We won't" really means "We can't."

Please be kinder than necessary to each other. We need kindness and compassion more now than ever in our history. Shed each others' tears, carry each others' burdens, listen to each others hopes and fears. Touch each other with love. The time has arrived. It's all up to us now.

[Gregorian]

2. Thanks. It isn't easy for those who are conscious.

In fact it's getting more discouraging. Less water in the creeks. Fewer fish. More cars. More noise. It's not fun for some of us. I sometimes wish I could be ignorant just to relax from the pollution of it all.

[hunter]

3. I'm reminded yet again of Ursula K. Le Guin's "Always Coming Home"

http://www.ursulakleguin.com/ACH/Index.html