Drumbeat from this weekend and today...

[Javaman]

Drumbeat: June 30, 2012
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9300

Drumbeat: July 2, 2012
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9302

[FBaggins]

1. That Harvard report is stunning.

THE UNPRECEDENTED UPSURGE OF OIL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE WORLD
Contrary to what most people believe, oil supply capacity is growing worldwide at such an
unprecedented level that it might outpace consumption. This could lead to a glut of
overproduction and a steep dip in oil prices.

Based on original, bottom-up, field-by-field analysis of most oil exploration and development
projects in the world, this paper suggests that an unrestricted, additional production (the level of
production targeted by each single project, according to its schedule, unadjusted for risk) of more
than 49 million barrels per day of oil (crude oil and natural gas liquids, or NGLs) is targeted for
2020, the equivalent of more than half the current world production capacity of 93 mbd.

After adjusting this substantial figure considering the risk factors affecting the actual
accomplishment of the projects on a country-by-country basis, the additional production that
could come by 2020 is about 29 mbd. Factoring in depletion rates of currently producing oilfields
and their “reserve growth” (the estimated increases in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas
liquids that could be added to existing reserves through extension, revision, improved recovery
efficiency, and the discovery of new pools or reservoirs), the net additional production capacity
by 2020 could be 17.6 mbd, yielding a world oil production capacity of 110.6 mbd by that date –
as shown in Figure 1. This would represent the most significant increase in any decade since the
1980s.

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Oil-%20The%20Next%20Revolution.pdf