The anomaly has gone below 2 million

[XemaSab]

Not only does it look like this is about the fifth time it's gone below 2m, but it also appears to be about 6 weeks early for such shenanigans.

[dballance]

1. Please explain to us non-experts

[phantom power]

4. there is a bit more than 2 million square kilometers less ice than "normal"

where "normal" is defined as the mean over 1979 - 2008 (note this range actually includes the infamous 2007 record-low-coverage year).

[XemaSab]

5. This is the area of the Arctic sea ice pack

taken from this site: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

Long story short, unless something changes, we're on our way to a record low ice area this year.

[XemaSab]

2. Also, this:

The comparison with 2007 (which was the Year of Doom) is shocking:

[phantom power]

3. fucking hell, not very much purple in that map

[XemaSab]

6. It makes 2007 look healthy

[patrice]

9. And the red is waaaaaaaaaaaaay bigger too & heavily edged with yellow, so yellow is growing.

[NickB79]

7. Why the shift in ice distribution from 2007 to 2012?

There's way more ice up near Alaska compared to 2007, but much less ice above central Russia than before.

Anyone know what's driving the different melting patterns?

[XemaSab]

10. Simple answer: currents and weather patterns

Complicated answer: the Arctic dipole anomaly.

[happyslug]

21. Based on current flows

[FedUpWithIt All]

11. Wow, that is chilling.

No pun intended.

Melted sea ice means more heat in the exposed water, correct? Further accelerating the issue?

[GliderGuider]

12. Yipe!

I was looking for a way to dig back to the 2007 comparison image, but hadn't found it yet. Thanks.

I hate to say it, but that's about what I was expecting to see.

[XemaSab]

13. One of the things that really stands out

is that in 2007, it was a solid pack.

All that red area in the 2012 image is loose floes.

In 2007, the weather conditions were particularly conducive to melting. Since then, the weather had been conducive to retaining ice, but it's still going.

If we got weather conditions like 2007, the Arctic would be virtually ice-free this year.

[GliderGuider]

15. I expect the NW Passage to open up pretty fast.

Maybe even beat its earliest opening by a couple of weeks. The August PIOMAS anomaly should be damned interesting too...

[XemaSab]

16. Looks worse today than it did three days ago

[emmadoggy]

17. !

[Odin2005]

24. We are in such deep shit.

Santa is gonna be on ice floes by September, not solid ice.

[XemaSab]

29. This year could make 2007 look like

the frozen ice planet of Hoth.

[emmadoggy]

32. Kick.

It's terrifying how little pink and purple there is on that image today (8/3).

[NickB79]

8. When do we stop calling it an anomaly and start calling it what it really is?

The new normal.

[XemaSab]

14. Neven's got a post up about it

It happened four times before, twice in 2007 and twice in 2011. Both record minimum years in the CT SIA data set had a first small dip a couple of weeks before the minimum, and a bigger one during the period of re-freeze:

First dip 2007: Aug. 19th - Aug. 23rd
Big dip 2007: Sep. 25th - Oct.29th (reaching the record anomaly of -2.635 million km2)

First dip 2011:Aug. 24th - Aug. 25th
Big dip 2011: Oct. 13th - Oct. 24th (reaching -2.224 million km2)

This year the negative anomaly has dipped below 2 million km2 on July 17th, more than a month earlier than the previous earliest record.


http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/07/ct-sia-anomaly-drops-below-2-million-km2.html

[joshcryer]

20. This gif from the comments = wow:

[emmadoggy]

18. Oh Shit. nt

[joshcryer]

19. The models have been so wrong about this...

It's madness.

[demguy_5692]

22. Yikes

Scary stuff.

[Odin2005]

23. The Acrtic Ice Cap looks like the Arctic SLUSHY

[Systematic Chaos]

25. Link to where this photo's from, please?

Save me the trouble of spending until next month trying to figure it out on my own?

[XemaSab]

26. Looks like a MODIS image

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012204.terra.4km

[Odin2005]

27. Yup, MODIS image from that red patch.

[Systematic Chaos]

28. Mucho grassy ass and de nachos, si!

[emmadoggy]

30. Kick! Holy crap, look at the change just from

7/17 to 7/23!!

Yikes.

Edit: oops, meant to post this as a reply to Xemasab's Cryosphere post, upthread.

[XemaSab]

31. .