Living climate change

[GliderGuider]

This is a quote from Paul Beckwith, a geography professor at Carleton University here in Ottawa. He is active in the climate change field.

It's not a typical January here in in Ottawa. 10 degrees C for several days one week; -30 the next; followed by 10 the one after that. Why?

Normally the high altitude jet streams that circle the planet are predominantly from west to east with little waviness. Weather is cold and dry northward of the jets (Arctic air sourced) and warm and wet southward (moist tropics and ocean sourced). Now, and moving forward, the jets are extremely wavy and as the crests and troughs of the waves sweep by us each week we experience the massive swings in temperature. The extreme jet waviness is due to a very large reduction in the equator-to-Arctic temperature gradient caused by an exponentially declining Arctic reflectivity from sea-ice and snow cover collapses (which causes great amplification of Arctic temperatures). Additional amplification is occurring due to rapidly rising methane concentrations sourced from sea-floor sediments and terrestrial permafrost.

Observed changes will accelerate as late summer sea-ice completely vanishes from Arctic within a few years. Largest human impacts will be food supply shortages and increases in severity, frequency, and duration of extreme weather events.

I can echo his comments. It's going to a high of +9C today, and 4 days ago it got down to -38 with the wind chill. I've never seen the winter weather so variable here in Ottawa. I realized last summer that one of the first visible signs of the collapse of the Arctic ice would be changes in the Rossby waves. And now I'm living it. How uncool is that???

[Champion Jack]

1. K&R

[phantom power]

2. It's been that way this winter in AZ

During the Cold Snap From Hell, the jet stream was down into Mexico

[tavalon]

3. Very uncool

I've watched the yearly changes with some nervousness but it's the decades that are killing us. We are in a nationwide drought and when the Arctic ice really gets it's melt on, those on the coasts are going to be swimming.

[appal_jack]

4. Dramatic fluctuations here in the southern Appalachians too

Yesterday, the high reached the sixties (F), but by this evening we expect snow and ice.

Because I work in the environmental and agricultural fields, people often ask me about climate change's long term implications for this region in particular. Will we have drought all the time in future summers? What elsewill change in the years ahead. Although I try to stay on top of various modeling efforts, so far the best I can tell them is to anticipate more extremes, happening more extremely all the time.

k&r,

-app