Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy

[GliderGuider]

Last edited Thu Jan 19, 2012, 03:21 PM - Edit history (1)

Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy

[div class="excerpt" style="border:solid 1px #000000;"]Obstacle 1: Wind energy is dependent on large subsidies.
Obstacle 2: Wind energy is more variable than electricity produced by fossil fuels and by nuclear energy.
Obstacle 3: Natural gas is now very cheap in the US, and there is a huge amount of natural gas generating capacity already built.
Obstacle 4: In the US, we do not have an electrical grid that can provide very much long distance transport of electricity, and there are several reasons why changing this situation is very difficult.
Obstacle 5: A high proportion of funding for wind energy is up front.
Obstacle 6: Adding wind energy to the electric grid adds complexity which may be difficult to manage with declining resources.
For me the most interesting idea in the piece is that wind power competes with fuel costs, not wholesale electricity costs:

[div class="excerpt" style="border:solid 1px #000000;"]As a result, the role of wind energy is fairly limited. What wind energy does is permit electricity generating plants, particularly those fueled by natural gas, to use less fuel. Consequently, the price of wind energy tends to compete with the price of fuel, rather than with the wholesale price of electricity.

Chis Namoviz, who is in charge of renewable energy forecasting at the EIA, explained this to me in an e-mail in 2009:

[div class="excerpt" style="border:solid 1px #000000;"]Because of its relatively low “capacity value” (a result of usually not blowing very regularly during peak load hours), wind largely competes as a “fuel saver” resource, and can generally be compared against the fuel cost of what ever mix of fuel it is displacing (whether from existing capacity or from alternative investments in future capacity). In the U.S., this is typically some mix of relatively inexpensive coal and somewhat expensive natural gas, depending on the location of the wind plant, and the resulting seasonal/daily wind and load profiles . . .
The implication is that the more economical NG becomes, the more unattractive new wind power becomes. Damn you, Marcellus!

[FBaggins]

1. "“fuel saver"

Another way of saying "you can't get rid of the gas-fired plant and maintain reliable power".

Still cuts GG emissions substantially, but makes the overall system more expensive.

[GliderGuider]

2. The real fly in the ointment is economics.

As long as we are trading off between $$$ and GHG, the cheapest source overall will win. Rational long-term planning is very difficult in such a situation.

[FBaggins]

4. Ah... but like statistics... "economics" often involves lots of game-playing.

Look at recent claims that solar panels are approaching (or have already reached) "grid parity" with fossil generation. They are often cited as if it means that we can supply normal household demand over the course of the year with cheaper solar power.

Of course that's nonsense. Even if you can supply the same number of kWh, that doesn't do the same thing. Creating a system that provides for power needs using solar PV is still a loooong way from grid parity.

The current flavor of "parity" would mean that solar PV's penetration could climb rapidly in areas where peak demand needs closely follow PV generation peaks... but still doesn't make sense beyond that point. Including the cost of storage or backups in the mix makes it unworkable.


So the question remains "what's really 'cheapest'?"

[Starboard Tack]

3. NG is relatively cheap. How "relatively" remains to be seen

Firstly, it is a finite resource, like coal. Secondly, it's extraction methods are being called into question more and more, which may result in very high costs in the future.
I think local options may be more realistic, combining renewable sources such as wind, solar, wave/tidal and geothermal; then use NG as a backup.
I spend most of my time in a place that is ideal for all those renewable options, especially wind and solar; yet 99% of the power is generated by diesel oil. The reason being it makes $en$e. Go figure.