Renewable energy's bird problem - Understanding 'The Duck'

[kristopher]

Renewable energy's bird problem
By Owen Smith and Mathias Bell
Published November 01, 2013

In the lively conversation about how to integrate variable renewables such as wind and solar into our electric grid's generation mix, an unlikely player has entered the fray: a duck.

It's not literally a duck, mind you, but rather a mallard-esque graph -- now famously known as the "duck chart" -- from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) in a report released late last year causing quite a stir of late.

...The duck chart shows the net load CAISO's central thermal power plants would need to supply when you combine hour-by-hour expected customer electricity demand with the offsetting output from variable renewables (especially solar) over the course of a typical spring day. As the forecast goes to 2015 and beyond, the curve shifts as growing shares of renewable generation are added to the grid, with the duck belly sinking deeper and the neck rising more steeply.

That deepening belly and subsequent steep rise to the top of the head is what's getting so much attention. It makes clear that we soon will face some real challenges in managing the grid if we don't do something. The good news, though, is that we have plenty of choices about what we can do to ensure continued reliable grid operation of the grid.


The Duck Chart

Understanding the duck

....

Taming the duck

...

http://www.greenbiz.com/blog/2013/11/01/renewables-bird-problem

Currently this is probably one of the most critical topics relative to advancing the transition to a low carbon renewable energy system and the article provides good information on the ways to manage the issue.

[kristopher]

1. Duck@Work?

German utility reduces retail rate

The country's fifth largest power provider has announced a minor reduction in retail rates for its nearly one million household customers. The reasons the firm indicated for the reduction apply to all power providers in the country.

EWE, Germany's fifth largest power provider, announced this week that its roughly 900,000 household customers will see their retail rates reduced by 0.36 cents per kilowatt-hour. The news is a further indication that retail power rates in Germany are stabilizing despite the relatively great increase in the renewables surcharge of roughly one cent.

The firm says it was able to reduce its retail rates nonetheless mainly because of two factors: lower wholesale prices and lower grid charges. My regular readers will know that renewable electricity has greatly reduced the price of wholesale power in Germany, but that those prices are only passed on to retail consumers with a delay of a year or two because power purchase agreements generally have a term of around 18 months.

The new grid fees were only made public a few weeks ago. As my readers will also remember, Germany has ironically made the firms that consume the most electricity (and hence need to grid the most) exempt from grid fees – something that has drawn the ire of Brussels, which (correctly) considers the policy illegal state aid for local industry. But before the German government could react (after all, the CDU and SPD are still in coalition negotiations), a court in Düsseldorf ruled that the exemptions are illegal for more than 200 of these firms.

In 2011, 1,007 firms received the exemption, and ...

http://www.renewablesinternational.net/german-utility-reduces-retail-rate/150/537/74600/

[kristopher]

2. Local experts say now is the time for solar power

Local experts say now is the time for solar power
Billy Hesterman - Daily Herald


Now is the right time to purchase solar panels for your home or business according to a group of solar panel experts.

On Friday representatives from various solar power businesses, advocates and energy production companies spoke in favor of the alternative energy saying now was the time to ditch your local power company and invest in solar power.

"We believe we are at the infancy of the solar revolution," said Bernell Stone, Executive Director of Global Energy Management, an organization devoted to research education in areas of energy, environment and sustainability.

Stone compared solar technology to technology in flat screen televisions. He noted that flat screen TV's were once priced in the thousands in the 1990's but now are available for a few hundred dollars. He said the same pricing action is happening with solar power technology that prices were once high but now are dropping as demand for solar power increases in the market.

"It is all a front end investment," said Stone. ...

http://www.heraldextra.com/business/local/local-experts-say-now-is-the-time-for-solar-power/article_874f78cc-6565-57d2-b91f-74b67e480ba5.html

[kristopher]

3. As Xcel Follows National Playbook to Attack Solar ...

As Xcel Follows National Playbook to Attack Solar, Ballot Results Say 'Not in Colorado'
A Statement from The Alliance for Solar Choice on the Election Results The Alliance for Solar Choice
November 8, 2013 10:13 AM

DENVER, Nov. 8, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- On the heels of Xcel's second failure to stop the citizens of Boulder from taking control of their electricity, the utility is attacking energy choice on another front: rooftop solar. Xcel wants to penalize solar customers and eliminate the fair credit they receive for excess clean energy they deliver to the grid. The utility's disregard for consumer choice is an attempt to protect its monopoly status and inflated profit margins.

Tuesday's election results show that Xcel faces an uphill battle in trying to stifle rooftop solar and consumer demands for choice and independence on energy matters. On two separate votes related to Boulder's effort to create its own utility, pro-municipalization positions outpolled pro-Xcel positions 2:1. Meanwhile Lafayette, Boulder, and Fort Collins all passed restrictions on hydraulic fracking.

"These results demonstrate a clear public desire for more choice, local control and more renewable energy," said Meghan Nutting, Colorado resident and representative of The Alliance for Solar Choice. "Coloradans know last century's fossil fuel status quo and a centralized monopoly doesn't work for a 21st Century Colorado."

In 2011 and 2013, Xcel spent more than $2 million telling the citizens of Boulder that the utility knows better than the community. Consumers did not buy it. Now Xcel is asking the Public Utilities Commission for permission to pay rates below market value to rooftop solar customers who feed electricity back into the grid. Xcel's proposal would undermine a policy called net metering and prevent consumers from receiving fair credit for the rooftop solar power they produce. Net metering is in place in 43 states.

"We all should have the choice to produce our own power from the sun without being penalized," said Nutting. "But Xcel wants to increase their monopoly over our power sources and eliminate this freedom."

Xcel's attempts to end net metering and rooftop solar align with a national playbook outlined by the utility's own trade association Edison Election Institute (EEI)...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/xcel-follows-national-playbook-attack-151300301.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory

[jpak]

4. Over-generation - Oh Noes!

The centralized power plants will have to go off-line!

Then come back on-line to meet the evening demand!

The pity.

[kristopher]

5. Easier to plan, calculate, and afford"

Easier to plan, calculate, and afford"

Germany does not yet have a new coalition, but yesterday German environmental Minister Peter Altmaier and SPD politician Hannelore Kraft made a few announcements about what the country's future energy policy will look like. Of course, the devil is in the details, and none have been announced yet.

...

The meeting in Brussels seems to have been fruitful, for Altmaier and Kraft made a few vague announcements on Saturday. Altmaier told the press that the focus will be on making implementation of the energy transition "easier to plan, calculate, and afford over the long term." Up to now, Germany has relied on feed-in tariffs, which provide a modest return to investors in renewables (almost all of whom are citizens, SMEs, and communities) along with priority grid access – meaning that renewable power always offsets conventional power.

But now that renewables make up roughly a quarter of power supply, the number of voices complaining about shortcomings is growing. Take the example of German power provider EWE, which just lowered its retail power rates. Located in the Northwest, it is the fifth largest utility in Germany – and has more than 70 percent renewable energy in its grid. Over the past decade, I have perceived the firm as a supporter of the energy transition (it is largely owned by local communities), but its CEO is now calling for current feed-in tariffs to be done away with entirely.

For instance, in December 2010, the German Environmental Ministry published a study (PDF in German; see Table 3.5 on page 36) on "Long-term scenarios and strategies for renewables," which expected wholesale power prices to rise dramatically. In reality, because PV has wiped out expensive peak power, wholesale prices are at a record low. Instead of the expected 4.7-4.9 cents per kilowatt-hour, prices fell in June to 2.8 cents and could remain below four cents on average for the year.

Ironically, though, Kraft and Altmaier do not seem to want to change anything about solar feed-in tariffs, ...

http://www.renewablesinternational.net/easier-to-plan-calculate-and-afford/150/537/74619/

See also:
http://www.renewablesinternational.net/german-utility-reduces-retail-rate/150/537/74600/

[kristopher]

6. Another serving of duck?

Arizona Solar Energy Fight Ends With $5 Monthly Fee, Major Win For Renewable Power Industry
By BRIAN SKOLOFF 11/14/13 09:59 PM ET EST

PHOENIX (AP) — Arizona regulators on Thursday voted to adopt a roughly $5 monthly fee for customers of the state's largest utility who install rooftop solar panels in a move that had the solar industry declaring victory over what it saw as an effort to topple its business.

The Arizona Corporation Commission's vote came after two days of talks and testimony from citizens and representatives on both sides of the issue as Arizona Public Service sought a monthly rate increase for solar customers of $50 to $100.

...

APS spokesman Jim McDonald said the company was pleased that the commission recognized fees had to be charged for solar customers, but was disappointed at the small amount approved.

"It will be exponentially millions of dollars more expensive later than it is now," McDonald said, adding that there are roughly 500 new rooftop solar installations per month in Arizona. "And that will fall on the shoulders of our non-rooftop solar customers."

The commission's vote adds a fee of 70 cents per kilowatt. The average home operates a 7 kilowatt system....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/15/arizona-solar-energy-fight-ends_n_4282220.html?utm_hp_ref=green

See also:
Arizona Preserves Net Metering by Charging a Small Fee to Solar Owners
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/Charging-a-Fee-to-Solar-Owners-Preserves-Net-Metering-in-Arizona

[Iterate]

7. No need for a 2015 forecast, it's happening now

What they refer to as the Duck, I'd begun to think of as the "slumping shoulders". Typical of the German daily output, it's where solar output is short of the peak demand for an hour or so morning and evening, but pushes thermal partly out of the market during midday. It's the same phenomena, and not unexpected during this transition period.

The difference in the shape of the curves I think comes from a difference in the consumption culture. German stores close at a reasonable hour, second and especially third shifts are fairly rare, and household consumption is not on such an industrial scale. Plus the streets are darker. More efficient lighting, little e-HVAC. It makes the curve more symmetrical, less like a duck. Most of this is true throughout the EU, and I'd expect the same curve during transition after they finally get their shit together.

Without looking it up, as I recall German rail consumes about 7% of demand and schedules are throttled back before 6am and after 7pm. So a good share of transportation is already electrified. It might be a focus for mid-day storage.

So far, it doesn't look like the big four utilities have throttled back completely during the day. With the collapse of the carbon market, they've been able to export at midday to Belgium and the Czech Republic. That won't continue forever.

Three German states - Rheinland-Pfalz, Schleswig-Holstein and Brandenburg I think - are committed and well on track for 100% renewable electricity by 2030. All three are at a border. Berlin and Hesse will lag behind. Expect to see the exceptional-day production/consumption curves to become the norm. Coal will howl.