New EV batteries for sale cheap?

[kristopher]

Although the following articles inform the discussion on hydrogen linked here, it is significant enough in its own right to merit a new thread.

Toyota Unveils Zero-Emissions Hydrogen Fuel-Cell ‘Car Of The Future’ For Sale Next Year
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1127&pid=61756

Electric Vehicle Sales Nearly Double in 2013
More than 90,000 plug-in hybrids and fully electric cars were purchased last year
By Julia Pyper and ClimateWire
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=electric-vehicle-sales-nearly-double-in-2013

Norway EV Sales In 2013 — 100% Increase In Sales http://cleantechnica.com/2014/01/07/look-2013-ev-sales-norway/#v2qYell2MRsSp1Op.99

Posted with permission from:

http://cleantechnica.com/2014/01/07/ev-battery-prices-much-lower-think/

Are EV Battery Prices Much Lower Than We Think? Under $200/kWh?


A couple of CleanTechnica’s readers/advisors recently gathered together some interesting numbers and insights. To start this piece, I’ll just repost what one of them passed along to me:

I’m finding Chevy Volt replacement batteries online for about $2,300.

$2,300/16 kWh = $144/kWh

Retail.

On the GM Parts Store site a replacement battery for the 2012 Chevy Volt is listed at $2,305.88. No core (used battery) return required.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/klnrete

That’s 16 kWh. $144.12/kWh. Retail.



From the Volt forum -
http://gm-volt.com/forum/showthread.php?70545-Volt-replacement-battery-for-only-2-300

“When I checked thru a friends Shop about this time last year (to get the ‘good guy’ price), the ‘complete propulsion battery assembly’ for a 2012 (they didn’t Have a price for the 2013 yet at that time) was quoted at $1900. And NO exchange or “core” – they did Not want the old one back, apparently.” [sic]


Here’s another site selling for $2,620. http://preview.tinyurl.com/mesew42

Volt battery at $2,995. Full retail price.
$2,995 / 16 kWh = $187 / kWh

Discounted retail price.
$2,306 / 16 kWh = $144 / kWh

Dealer’s cash price 30% off MSRP of $2,995
$2,097 / 16 kWh = $131/ kWh

If GM is buying these batteries for even less and making something on them, GM’s cost could be in the $100/kWh range. That would give GM a 30% profit for selling on to dealers. 30% might be high for a pass-through profit.

Now, if you don’t obsessively keep up with EV battery prices, let’s step back for some perspective. McKinsey in 2012 (1) projected that EV batteries would get down to about $200/kWh by 2020. A bit more optimistically, Elon Musk in early 2012 (2) projected $200/kWh in the “not too distant future.” Of course, we don’t know exactly what that meant, but it sounds a lot closer than 2020. Based on some investigating in the middle of 2013, some Tesla enthusiasts actually came to the conclusion that Tesla battery packs may be down to about $233/kWh, or even $204/kWh (3).

Beyond the McKinsey report and Tesla thread, here’s a January 2012 statement from then US Secretary of Energy Steven Chu on EV battery prices (4) that we have over on our “Car Answers”(5) page:

“Overall, the Department of Energy is partnering with industry to reduce the manufacturing cost of advanced batteries. While a typical battery for a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle with a 40-mile electric range cost $12,000 in 2008, we’re on track to demonstrate technology by 2015 that would reduce the cost to $3,600. And last year, we set a goal of demonstrating technology by 2020 that would further reduce the cost to $1,500 – an accomplishment that could help spur the mass-market adoption of electric vehicles.”

I’ve reached out to a couple of other people about these GM battery numbers, since it doesn’t seem like we should be anywhere close to $100/kWh for EV batteries, but neither of my sources have pointed out any glaring mistakes here. I think the best guess so far is simply that GM is dumping batteries. But why would it do so?

I know we have a lot of very informed readers, some of whom are industry insiders. If someone would like to point out an obvious mistake that we are making or something that we are missing, please do so. Any perspective would be appreciated.

I guess the overall questions are: Have we already dropped well below $200 per kWh? Have we already zipped below $3,600 for a Chevy Volt battery pack? Was the DOE way off (or super conservative) with its 2015 projection/goal? Have analysts been way off, projecting much higher EV battery prices than really are out in the real world? Or is GM dumping batteries for some reason? And what would that reason be?

Let us know what you think!


Read more at http://cleantechnica.com/2014/01/07/ev-battery-prices-much-lower-think/#41OMWYrTskQumRkH.99

(1) http://www.plugincars.com/lithium-ion-battery-prices-drop-160-kwh-2025-123193.html

(2) http://cleantechnica.com/2012/02/23/tesla-ceo-sees-ev-batteries-soon-dropping-to-200-per-kwh/

(3) http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/17590-Model-S-Battery-Pack-Cost-Per-kWh-Estimate

(4) http://cleantechnica.com/2012/01/26/ev-battery-prices-dropping/

(5) http://cleantechnica.com/car-answers/



About the Author
Zachary Shahan is the director of CleanTechnica, the most popular cleantech-focused website in the world, and Planetsave, a world-leading green and science news site. He has been covering green news of various sorts since 2008, and he has been especially focused on solar energy, electric vehicles, and wind energy for the past four years or so. Aside from his work on CleanTechnica and Planetsave, he's the Network Manager for their parent organization – Important Media – and he's the Owner/Founder of Solar Love, EV Obsession, and Bikocity. To connect with Zach on some of your favorite social networks, go to ZacharyShahan.com and click on the relevant buttons.

[tinrobot]

1. That is cheap...

Back when I was driving a conversion EV, I was looking to upgrade to lithium and 16kwh would have cost about $8K.

I wonder if the EV conversion community has noticed these cheap batteries.

[tinrobot]

2. Nissan Leaf batteries are also selling pretty cheap

I just found this : 11 kWh for $2450

http://hybridautocenter.com/HAC4/index.php?option=com_hikashop&ctrl=product&task=show&cid=4&name=new-11kw-h-battery-block-182v-60ah&Itemid=605

[lumberjack_jeff]

3. that's really good.

I just bought a bunch of salvageable(?) used laptop battery packs for the LiPo 3.7v 2ah 18650 cells inside. Assuming a 20% scrap rate, I paid about $27.00/ kwh.

[kristopher]

4. I was following that conversation

What you're doing sounds like fun and I hope it works well for you.

I'm not an expert on batteries, but if you're using LiPo chemistry you'll want to be careful with the management system since that's "the" chemistry which elevated the concern about lithium being a fire hazard - and it could be especially problematic in an application like an e-bike. Also, you'll be hitting a time wall as they have a distinct shelf life from date of manufacture.

Did you check the local scrapyards for Prius batteries?