NOAA Issues An El Nino Watch, Says There's A 50% Chance For Development Later This Year

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http://www.businessinsider.com/noaas-fall-summer-outlook-2014-el-nino-2014-3


Forecast models predict an increase in sea surface temperature anomalies later this year.

On Wednesday, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch, with a roughly 50% chance of development in the summer or fall of this year.
El Niño, also called the southern oscillation, is a warming of the tropical Pacific ocean that happens about every five years. This warming changes wind patterns and affects weather and storm systems around the world.

On the eastern coast of the United States, for example, strong El Niño events generally result in warmer, dryer than average winters. California, on the other hand, could expect a wetter than normal winter. This could be beneficial for the currently rain-starved state.

"Increased thunderstorm activity over the eastern Pacific allows moisture to rise into the upper atmosphere and leak into this branch of the jet stream," the Washington Post's Dennis Mersereau explains, "creating the opportunity for beneficial rainfall across the affected areas next fall and winter, especially in California where they are experiencing exceptional drought conditions."

El Niño could also lead to fewer storms during the Atlantic hurricane season.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/noaas-fall-summer-outlook-2014-el-nino-2014-3#ixzz2vHD3zBll

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1. Seems like it depends on which way the wind blows

The model predictions of ENSO for this summer and beyond are relatively unchanged from last month. Almost all the models indicate that ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5oC and 0.5oC) will persist through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014 (Fig. 6). While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall. If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 April 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [e-mail].

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html