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Related: About this forumOfficial prophecy of doom: Global warming will cause widespread conflict, devastate global economy
Official prophecy of doom: Global warming will cause widespread conflict, displace millions of people and devastate the global economy
Leaked draft report from UN panel seen by The Independent is most comprehensive investigation into impact of climate change ever undertaken - and it's not good news.
Climate change will displace hundreds of millions of people by the end of this century, increasing the risk of violent conflict and wiping trillions of dollars off the global economy, a forthcoming UN report will warn.
The second of three publications by the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due to be made public at the end of this month, is the most comprehensive investigation into the impact of climate change ever undertaken. A draft of the final version seen by The Independent says the warming climate will place the world under enormous strain, forcing mass migration, especially in Asia, and increasing the risk of violent conflict.
Based on thousands of peer-reviewed studies and put together by hundreds of respected scientists, the report predicts that climate change will reduce median crop yields by 2 per cent per decade for the rest of the century at a time of rapidly growing demand for food. This will in turn push up malnutrition in children by about a fifth, it predicts.
The report also forecasts that the warming climate will take its toll on human health, pushing up the number of intense heatwaves and fires and increasing the risk from food and water-borne diseases.
Leaked draft report from UN panel seen by The Independent is most comprehensive investigation into impact of climate change ever undertaken - and it's not good news.
Climate change will displace hundreds of millions of people by the end of this century, increasing the risk of violent conflict and wiping trillions of dollars off the global economy, a forthcoming UN report will warn.
The second of three publications by the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due to be made public at the end of this month, is the most comprehensive investigation into the impact of climate change ever undertaken. A draft of the final version seen by The Independent says the warming climate will place the world under enormous strain, forcing mass migration, especially in Asia, and increasing the risk of violent conflict.
Based on thousands of peer-reviewed studies and put together by hundreds of respected scientists, the report predicts that climate change will reduce median crop yields by 2 per cent per decade for the rest of the century at a time of rapidly growing demand for food. This will in turn push up malnutrition in children by about a fifth, it predicts.
The report also forecasts that the warming climate will take its toll on human health, pushing up the number of intense heatwaves and fires and increasing the risk from food and water-borne diseases.
When you factor in all the other damage we've done to ecosystems around the planet, it's hard to imagine the human family escaping a rather unpleasant outcome.
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Official prophecy of doom: Global warming will cause widespread conflict, devastate global economy (Original Post)
GliderGuider
Mar 2014
OP
chervilant
(8,267 posts)1. I am become a casual observer...
But, you know that about me.
We are witness to the beginning of the end, but few are courageous enough to acknowledge what all can plainly see.
I am grateful for your bravery.
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)3. The comments to that story make it abundantly clear
why the world has never been able to muster any political headway for mitigating the catastrophe.
hatrack
(59,583 posts)4. Let me guess: "Freedumb!" "Technology!" "Free Enterprise!" "Gaw-duh!" "Murca!"
Am I close?
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)5. Climate-gate! Agenda 21!! NWO!!!! Grant funding!!!!11!!11
It's a conspiracy convention.
hatrack
(59,583 posts)6. Ah, even better!
I should have known.
truebrit71
(20,805 posts)8. They are depressing to say the least...
...morans to a man..
truebrit71
(20,805 posts)7. ..."by the end of this century"...whew! That's at least another 85 years 'til it gets bad then?
Once again they are being far too conservative in their estimates. "By the end of the century", whom do they think they are kidding? We are well and truly fucked NOW, we just don't know it yet...
GliderGuider
(21,088 posts)9. And here's why the problem is far worse than that report suggests
This is borrowed with permission from a FB friend.
That official prophecy of doom is so understated it's a sad joke. The reality is orders of magnitude worse. Let's just take one example of consequence here. Russian wheat.
The massive droughts and fires converted Russia from being a net wheat exporter to a net wheat importer in one year. Starting in 2010, Russia's wheat crop dropped from being 12 point something million metric tonnes to 3 point something million metric tonnes. Who do they export most of their wheat to? The entire Middle East. A year later, as wheat prices soared, civil unrest followed the price spike like night follows day. And finally, one fruit vendor in Tunisia, Mohammed Bouazizi, had had enough of corruption and gouging. And that was the trigger.
By the end of 2013, eighteen Arab countries had either forced rulers from power, had major demonstrations or in a few cases, minor demonstrations. And while no one in the corporate media will admit this, it's all about the price of food. Just wait until food goes over the top in the US...
Oh, and while we are at it, that same year - 2010 - The monsoon rains shifted and Pakistan had the worst floods in history, one fifth of its entire land surface under water, displacing in excess of 20 million people and killing over 2,000.
And now of course, India and China are losing their fresh water supply because the Himalayan glaciers are melting away and soon, the 4 major rivers that start there will dry up.
It's not millions that will be inconvenienced, it's billions that will starve, die of thirst, or die of overexposure to the wet bulb thermal max. And those billions will die in ecosystems and biomes that will die right along with them. These changes will put an end to this industrial civilization and we are so far beyond the tipping points now that there's really not a damned thing we can do about it.
Maybe, just maybe, if every human on the planet left the cities, stopped using fossil fuels, got back on the land, converted every single agricultural hectare back to a fully animal integrated permaculture food forest that could actually support us all, then we might - MIGHT - change the course of global warming. But even then - given the current atmospheric residence time of CO2 - it would be over a thousand years before we would know if it worked.
The last time CO2 got this high it took 200,000 years for the carbon levels to drop sufficiently for a temperate climate to re-emerge. That was the PETM and we lost 90 percent of both benthic and pelagic species and 70 percent of all land plants and animals.
The massive droughts and fires converted Russia from being a net wheat exporter to a net wheat importer in one year. Starting in 2010, Russia's wheat crop dropped from being 12 point something million metric tonnes to 3 point something million metric tonnes. Who do they export most of their wheat to? The entire Middle East. A year later, as wheat prices soared, civil unrest followed the price spike like night follows day. And finally, one fruit vendor in Tunisia, Mohammed Bouazizi, had had enough of corruption and gouging. And that was the trigger.
By the end of 2013, eighteen Arab countries had either forced rulers from power, had major demonstrations or in a few cases, minor demonstrations. And while no one in the corporate media will admit this, it's all about the price of food. Just wait until food goes over the top in the US...
Oh, and while we are at it, that same year - 2010 - The monsoon rains shifted and Pakistan had the worst floods in history, one fifth of its entire land surface under water, displacing in excess of 20 million people and killing over 2,000.
And now of course, India and China are losing their fresh water supply because the Himalayan glaciers are melting away and soon, the 4 major rivers that start there will dry up.
It's not millions that will be inconvenienced, it's billions that will starve, die of thirst, or die of overexposure to the wet bulb thermal max. And those billions will die in ecosystems and biomes that will die right along with them. These changes will put an end to this industrial civilization and we are so far beyond the tipping points now that there's really not a damned thing we can do about it.
Maybe, just maybe, if every human on the planet left the cities, stopped using fossil fuels, got back on the land, converted every single agricultural hectare back to a fully animal integrated permaculture food forest that could actually support us all, then we might - MIGHT - change the course of global warming. But even then - given the current atmospheric residence time of CO2 - it would be over a thousand years before we would know if it worked.
The last time CO2 got this high it took 200,000 years for the carbon levels to drop sufficiently for a temperate climate to re-emerge. That was the PETM and we lost 90 percent of both benthic and pelagic species and 70 percent of all land plants and animals.
Nihil
(13,508 posts)10. Kick for your cheery addition!
hunter
(38,310 posts)11. Every ancestor of mine survived the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum...
...long enough to reproduce.
What's the problem?
CRH
(1,553 posts)12. kick and Rec. for exposure, … n/t