Some interesting factoids (and a bit of opinion) about CO2

[GliderGuider]

• For every 16 gigatonnes of CO₂ we emit, the atmospheric concentration goes up by 1 part per million.
  
• Humans currently emit about 40 gigatonnes of CO₂ per year, from a combination of fossil fuels, cement manufacturing and land-use changes.
  
• As a result, CO₂ concentrations are increasing by about 2.5 ppm every year,
  
• The lengthy residence time of CO₂ in the atmosphere means that so long as we emit any CO₂ at all, the atmospheric concentration will keep rising.
  
• Every dollar of world GDP produced over the last 15 years has required the emission of 0.6 kg of CO₂ on average - even with the increase in renewable energy production.
  
• If we want the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ to stop rising, we need to stop all economic activity.
  
• Even if we stopped all CO₂ emissions today by ceasing all economic activity, we would still have a dangerous amount of CO₂ in the air.
  
• No one has developed a method to take industrial quantities of CO₂ back out of the air, except (perhaps) for reforesting vast stretches of what is now farmland.
  
• The world will not stop its economic activity overnight. We will not even reduce it significantly for the next decade or two, unless a global economic crash happens - in which case we will desperately try to rebuild it.
  
• Two decades of economy-driven emissions will push the atmospheric CO₂ over 450 ppm.
  
• According to Wasdell et al, the long-term equilibrium temperature rise produced by 450 ppm of CO₂ is about +5 degrees Celsius.
  
• We don’t know how long it will take to stabilize at that temperature, but that’s where we will eventually wind up.
  
• Such a temperature is not conducive to the survival of many plants and animals, even humans. It is utterly incompatible with our current civilization.

This is why I believe we are now irreversibly screwed.

[Demeter]

1. Unless something changes

[GliderGuider]

3. I fully expect something to change shortly.

I just don't expect us to be in control of the change, or to enjoy it much.

[daleanime]

2. ........

[Festivito]

4. No. It's not all economic activity that must stop. Not even all CO2 producing activity.

CO2 producing activities should be cut, unless we do find that magic way to produce CO2 reduction on a large scale.

Increasing rain forests, old-growth forests and non-green land use, while decreasing fossil fueled cars, energy production and other production can boost an economic system as we find new ways to deal with these perilous levels of CO2 change.

Don't call for a stop of all economic activity.

Our economic activity needs to become greener, not disappear into some anarchic chaos. The longer we wait, the higher the chunk out of our economic activity will be needed to keep a changing climate from losing tremendously to only losing a lot.

This situation is like our problem with borrow and spend Republicons who borrow more and more from our environment and our federal reserve bank creating bigger and bigger payments due in the future, getting bigger as the payments get pushed back further and further. Unlike our Demogreats that lower our deficits year by year (e.g. WJC, BHO) and in Bill's case even paying down some debt with a surplus instead of a deficit.

[GliderGuider]

5. My point is that all economic activity produces some CO2

If we emit any CO2 at all we will never reduce atmospheric CO2 below its current level. Just to take 1 ppm per year out of the air using trees would require the permanent reforestation of about 10% of the planet's habitable land. To offset all our current emissions and reduce CO2 levels by 1 ppm per year we would need to reforest about a third of the world's habitable land (that is already in use growing food...) by planting half as many new trees as there are the entire planet right now. And then we'd need manage it all to make sure the trees didn't decay, and biochar them at end-of-life.

We have an enormous problem of scale, and we're up against the laws of physics. If, instead of telling ourselves the truth, we insist on looking for loopholes where there aren't any, we're tacitly dooming humanity and much of the rest of large-scale life on the planet. Nibbling around the edges of the problem with things like green economies and cap and trade is the proverbial road to hell that is paved with good intentions. The scenery may be a little nicer than the road we're on, but it ends at the same place.

I'm not calling for a cessation of the global economy, I'm just saying that's what it would take to restore ecological and climatic balance to the planet. I know we won't do it.

On edit: Even if we do "tell ourselves the truth" we're hosed anyway, so do whatever you feel is right. Just don't kid yourself about fixing the problem.

[i-should- be-working]

6. Photosynthesis STOPS at 104 degF

People aren't getting that we'll need to conduct almost all agriculture indoors.
That's not okay?
Death Valley isn't a great place to live?
What does it take for people to wake up to the world they're creating?