Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 07:51 AM Nov 2015

China's Tongwei Group Plans World's Biggest Solar-Cell Plant (5GW/yr)

China's Tongwei Group Plans World's Biggest Solar-Cell Plant
Bloomberg News
November 18, 2015 — 3:37 AM EST
Tongwei Group Co. is planning to build the world’s biggest plant to make solar cells in China’s southwestern province of Sichuan at a possible cost of about $1 billion.

The facility is expected to have capacity of 5 gigawatts of high-efficiency solar cells annually, according to an e-mailed statement. The company held a ceremony on Wednesday to mark the beginning of construction.

The plant in Shuangliu county will triple Tongwei’s total solar-cell capacity, which is estimated to reach 2.4 gigawatts by the end of this year. The plan underscores Chengdu-based Tongwei’s efforts to expand capacity after agreeing to buy a 10 percent stake in Taiwanese solar-cell producer Gintech Energy Corp. in July.

The factory, which could cost about 20 cents a watt, could be part of a medium-term plan, said Wang Xiaoting, a Hong Kong-based analyst from Bloomberg New Energy Finance....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-18/china-s-tongwei-group-plans-world-s-biggest-solar-cell-plant
38 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
China's Tongwei Group Plans World's Biggest Solar-Cell Plant (5GW/yr) (Original Post) kristopher Nov 2015 OP
This should exacerbate the heavy metal pollution in China's crop land. NNadir Nov 2015 #1
No, it shouldn't - in fact, just the opposite kristopher Nov 2015 #3
Really? I would guess that the unenlightened really have no idea about Chinese mining... NNadir Nov 2015 #9
Interesting choice of arguments kristopher Nov 2015 #19
Wow! As always, we have another case of someone knowing nothing about nuclear energy... NNadir Nov 2015 #22
As usual you write a wall of nonsensical text to divert from not addressing the issue kristopher Nov 2015 #23
Um...um...um...yeah...yeah... NNadir Nov 2015 #37
This is what moving away from fossil fuels (and nuclear) looks like kristopher Nov 2015 #38
Just to clear things up, this plant WILL NOT produce and electricity. Binkie The Clown Nov 2015 #11
Exactly dumbcat Nov 2015 #14
Are you saying you expect your panels to suddenly go kaput in 3 years? kristopher Nov 2015 #16
No, I don't dumbcat Nov 2015 #17
There's no problem with my reading comprehension kristopher Nov 2015 #18
And that is exactly the problem with your reading comprehension dumbcat Nov 2015 #20
I get the idea from the words you write. kristopher Nov 2015 #21
You've been doing this for 25 years and don't seem to understand the basics of the warranty? Finishline42 Nov 2015 #34
I stand corrected. I read that 10 yr figure a long time ago, Binkie The Clown Nov 2015 #25
What a load of crap. kristopher Nov 2015 #28
So when somebody points out an error I made, I should do what? Stand my ground Binkie The Clown Nov 2015 #30
You didn't make an "error", you made a deliberate false statement kristopher Nov 2015 #32
AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service Orrex Nov 2015 #36
I used to use a 10 year estimate dumbcat Nov 2015 #35
2 million homes each year. 50 years to minimally finish the US. Festivito Nov 2015 #2
More like 1,666,666 homes per year, every year the factory is operating kristopher Nov 2015 #4
The number of houses that 5GW/Year represents. eom Festivito Nov 2015 #5
You might want to learn what a "GW" is first. kristopher Nov 2015 #6
Oops. Monday. I was treating 5GW-year as power, not 5GW per year as energy. Festivito Nov 2015 #7
Yeah... Oooops... Riiiiiiiiight.... More like 1.67 million homes per year. kristopher Nov 2015 #8
{Sigh} This is really sad dumbcat Nov 2015 #10
They understand. kristopher Nov 2015 #12
What you just said dumbcat Nov 2015 #13
It follows from the words you typed. kristopher Nov 2015 #15
The answer is simple. Binkie The Clown Nov 2015 #24
You are right, it is simple kristopher Nov 2015 #26
The truth will set you free... Binkie The Clown Nov 2015 #27
I don't have a problem dealing with the truth kristopher Nov 2015 #29
There comes a time in a discussion when you realize that Binkie The Clown Nov 2015 #31
Playing the innocent lamb after trying to pass off RW falsehoods on a liberal forum? kristopher Nov 2015 #33

NNadir

(33,511 posts)
1. This should exacerbate the heavy metal pollution in China's crop land.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:07 AM
Nov 2015
Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology 25, 433-442

It's amazing what Chinese are suffering as a result to serve the absurd fantasies of unenlightened American bourgeoisie.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
3. No, it shouldn't - in fact, just the opposite
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:40 AM
Nov 2015

As a new, state-of-the-art plant, it will help shut down older, more polluting plants - not that there are really any of those left anyway.

And it will, together with the rest of China's massive investment in renewables, take a huge bite out of the global market for 'baseload' natgas, coal and nuclear thermal plants!!! Huzzah! Thus hastening the ever-accelerating shift away from the fossil fueled monsters that nuclear power helps to prop up.


NNadir

(33,511 posts)
9. Really? I would guess that the unenlightened really have no idea about Chinese mining...
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 01:11 PM
Nov 2015

...practices, and further, that they couldn't care less about them. Actually, I'm not guessing, I know.

To a man, a woman, 100% of these people are clueless. To a man, to a woman, 100% of these people are unfamiliar with the contents of either the primary scientific literature or even monographs and textbooks.

The plant's scale, reported to be "the world's largest" by the OP also tells reams and reams about the grotesque failure of the solar industry, in as much as the plant will produce 5 "gigawatts" per year - typical of the lie that peak capacity has anything to do with energy production. In reality on planet earth, among scientifically informed people, the capacity utilization of a plant is what counts. For solar, in most places, this is roughly ten percent. This means the "world's largest plant" - assuredly a toxic nightmare - at 5 GW is the equivalent of building one small 500 MW gas plant per year.

Given that world release of dangerous deadly fossil fuel waste is at the highest level ever observed, this is clearly trivial.

Note that the solar cells will not shut a single gas plant, instead they will depend on gas plants to back them up, since they're not only toxic, but they are unreliable.

Moreover, the Chinese plant, not operating under the environmental restrictions of Western law, will serve to drive Western plants out of business, meaning the "world's largest plant" will simply replace the economic failures like Solyndra and other solar plants.

Unquestionably though, given the low educational level, lack of humanity, dreaminess, obliviousness and lack of true environmental concern given to the anti-nuke purveyors of this on going tragedy, there will indeed be lots of "huzzahs!" for this crap. This ignorance and indifference is why the rise in greenhouse gases is accelerating and not declining.

Thanks for your feedback. If we don't have a chance, have a nice bourgeois Thanksgiving holiday.


kristopher

(29,798 posts)
19. Interesting choice of arguments
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:03 PM
Nov 2015

Considering your preference for nuclear. I presume you have heard how the UK is moving backwards WRT emissions, right? The conservative government has scrapped one of the most successful renewable/energy efficiency programs in the world in favor of subsidizing an already antiquated new fleet of nuclear reactors and gas turbine power plants to back them up. Your post makes it clear that you don't know that unpredictable, large scale nuclear power plants - with their dramatic impact on the grid when they pull one of their very frequent unplanned emergency shutdowns - require more fossil fuel backup than variable renewables.

Then again, given your ethics, you probably did know it.

NNadir

(33,511 posts)
22. Wow! As always, we have another case of someone knowing nothing about nuclear energy...
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 12:15 AM
Nov 2015

...at all presenting a "pot and kettle" argument, this time raising a "reliability" issue. Really? Really?

One need not be much above the level of a 5th grader to compare the capacity utilization of nuclear power plants world wide with the capacity factor of solar plants.

One can find this data on just about any authoritative energy website, the EIA, IEA, etc, but as usual, as opposed to doing so, we have a case of just making stuff up.

Let me ask you something more obvious. Does a nuclear plant shut down every time the sun goes down? How about when covered with snow? When the wind isn't blowing which device doesn't work, a nuclear power plant or a wind turbine?

One of the real annoying things about the liars in the anti-nuke industry - a front for the dangerous fossil fuel industry - other than the fact that they always use peak power units to characterize the toxic so called "renewable energy" junk, as opposed to units of energy, is that they assume that everyone is stupid.

Actually, one would need to be a total idiot to not know that the sun disappears each evening.

This apparently doesn't stop the "solar will save us" (fossil fuel fronting) industry from assuming that everyone is a total idiot.

The capacity factor of nuclear power plants, despite the representations of people who not only hate science, but also hate the truth can be found (in the United States) on the EIA's webpage: Performance of US Nuclear Reactors. Except for a single reactor out of service, there is not one reactor operating at the theoretical maximum for a solar cell, which, given the existence of night, is 50%, although this toxic garbage in reality is barely above 10% capacity utilization.

The nuclear summer capacity was 101,004 MWe, and it follows that by multiplying this by the number of seconds in a year (and converting mega to unit measurement) that the US theoretical nuclear output was 3.19 exajoules of pure electricity. The actual delivered energy was (converting MWh to exajoules is 2.91 exajoules. It follows for anyone who has passed 4th grade math - and clearly many anti-nukes are incompetent to do so, that the capacity utilization of US nuclear reactors was 91.4%.

This makes US nuclear reactors the most highly reliable power generation system in the entire United States, higher capacity utilization than coal, higher than gas, and far, far, far higher than all that redundant wind and solar crap we're wasting money on while we could be providing for education, health care and real infrastructure.

One wonders whether anti-nukes are smart enough to figure out how stupid they make themselves appear, when they assume stupidity on the part of everyone else.

A fool assuming that everyone else is as stupid as he or she is is still a fool, and anyone who is not a fool can see as much.

If we don't have a chance at another pleasant chat during your constant cheering for cadmium leaching in China, (and, as reported by Greentech, the Bankruptcy of so many American solar companies that it's not worth spending the time required to count them) the financial rape of any investor dumb enough to invest in this junk, have a great Thanksgiving, certainly better than the Thanksgivings the poor slobs who financed all these failed US solar companies. only to lose their shirts, might be having. It would seem that the solar scam is Enron all over again; one hopes that not too many people lost their life savings on the "solar sure thing."

If we don't have a chance to chat again, do drop by to tell us how renewable energy in the US is all about jobs! jobs! jobs! (That's another great whopper that the solar scammers used to throw around, and are probably still throwing around since they have a difficult relationship with something called "truth.&quot Again, have a great Thanksgiving!

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
23. As usual you write a wall of nonsensical text to divert from not addressing the issue
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 01:01 AM
Nov 2015

It is simple - the thing you love about that big massive, husky hunk of energy which is nuclear, is also what works against it (in several ways) for the needs of today's grid.

It is a routine occurrence for nuclear plants to have operating problems that require them to shut down immediately - the safety issue demands it.

Unless you have an extremely large amount of fossil fuel standby, taking that much power offline will crash the grid. Since we can't predict the sudden state of energy vacuum that a scrammed reactor leaves in its wake, we have to keep a shitton of fossil running all the time - just in case.

Wind and solar, though variable, are extremely predictable. That and the widely distributed nature of the collection devices, reduces dramatically the issues associated with compensating for their variable nature. We Do Not Need to Keep a Large Amount of Fossil Generation Up And Spinning "just in case" a gigawatt's worth of power is lost in an instant.

Another problem with that always on aspect of nuclear is that renewables ARE what is being built and nuclear is simply incompatible. We've seen a wave of shutdowns in coal and nuclear as these large plants are losing marginal market share to no-fuel-cost renewables. That is only going to get worse.




The world is changing and the nature of the change means nuclear is set to be only a minor distraction in our energy future. Given it's negatives of cost, safety, proliferation concerns and toxic wastes, that is a really good thing.

ETA: Since you're so fond of posting things that are totally unrelated, I'm sure you'll indulge me tossing this chart into the mix to show another aspect of nuclear that the nuclear industry likes to pretend doesn't exist:



...The story isn’t much better for new reactors added to existing power plants. Georgia Power’s Vogtle expansion, for example, is $900 million (6%) over budget through 2014 (and it just slipped again this week), with the estimated operation date already delayed by nearly two years, until 2018 (plenty of time to balloon the budget!). You’d think the utility learned a lesson when the original project went 1200% percent over budget!

Let’s not forget, either, that nuclear power has some of the largest per kilowatt- hour subsidies of any electricity source.
As the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette said, “a new nuclear project may be the hardest large-scale construction venture to keep on schedule and on budget, because of the cost, the regulations, and the infrequency of such events.” Compare that with solar power, with prices falling 50% in five years and new installations completed every 2.5 minutes.
http://blog.renewableenergyworld.com/ugc/blogs/2015/02/big-expensive-power-plants-undermine-a-clean-energy-future.html

NNadir

(33,511 posts)
37. Um...um...um...yeah...yeah...
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 08:21 PM
Nov 2015

Yeah...yeah...yeah...batteries...batteries...batteries, blah...blah...blah.

The people who push this "renewable" horseshit don't care how many people have to eat, drink, and inhale toxic metals and the like so long as no one rains on their half a century long parade of wishful thinking and pure nonsense. Clearly not one of them has ever taken a chemistry class, never mind a toxicology course.

It's 2015. If batteries and solar plants and wind plants were going to work, the last half a century would have meant something. We threw multiple trillions of dollars at this crap and it does essentially nothing. If this money were not wasted, the concentration of dangerous fossil fuel waste wouldn't be rising at the highest rate ever observed and gas wouldn't be the fastest growing source of energy on the planet.

Sorry. I'm kind of busy for the rest of the week, and don't have the time to waste on people who lack the ability to do math, contemplate simple data (for instance the price of electricity in Germany vs. France), or people who wish to defend the indefensible by reproducing stupid internet propaganda from websites written by stupid people for stupid people to read and cite ad nauseum. I'd rather talk to people who know and care about the world and the future.

Do you know what a reviewed piece of literature is?

The big difference between you and I is that I post data from the primary scientific literature or national or international energy organizations, and you produce more claptrap from the self referential circle of people who are causing this tragedy:

Weekly Data, Concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere

Enjoy the fat holiday, battery boy.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
38. This is what moving away from fossil fuels (and nuclear) looks like
Wed Nov 25, 2015, 12:08 AM
Nov 2015
Leapfrogging to Solar: Emerging Markets Outspend Rich Countries for the First Time
By Tom Randall, Bloomberg

We all know the story of how mobile phones took off in emerging markets. Suddenly small cocoa farmers in Africa who never had a landline or a computer were checking commodity prices on their smartphones.
Today something similarly profound is starting to happen with renewable energy.

For the first time, more than half of the world's annual investment in clean energy is coming from emerging markets instead of wealthier nations, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). The handoff occurred last year, and it's just the beginning.

The chart below shows quarterly clean-energy investment in OECD countries versus non-OECD countries. The trajectory is clear: If you’re a power plant salesperson, you’re probably going to be working with renewables in poor countries from now until the foreseeable future.



The world recently passed a turning point and is adding more capacity for clean energy each year than for coal, natural gas, and oil combined. For that trend to continue, rapidly developing economies are critical.

Last year, emerging markets invested a record $126 billion in clean energy, up 39 percent from the prior year, according to BNEF's new report, called Climatescope. China dominated, adding 35 GW of clean energy, or more than the U.S., U.K., and France combined. India may soon be a contender, with a plan announced this year to add 175 GW by 2022.

The report...


http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/articles/2015/11/leapfrogging-to-solar-emerging-markets-outspend-rich-countries-for-the-first-time.html?cmpid=renewablesolar11242015&eid=291112127&bid=1241690

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
11. Just to clear things up, this plant WILL NOT produce and electricity.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 05:52 PM
Nov 2015

Some people are responding to this post as if the plant will produce electricity. It will not. It will manufacture solar cells, with huge environmental costs. These cells will, if they are typical of solar cells, last about 10 years before having to be tossed onto the scrap heap, further polluting the environment.

dumbcat

(2,120 posts)
14. Exactly
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 08:01 PM
Nov 2015

and I can't believe how all the folks on this thread can't seem to grasp that, hence my post below.

But to quibble, solar panels last 10 years? I use a figure of 20-25 years. The panels on my roof have been in operation for 22 years with no noticeable degradation.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
16. Are you saying you expect your panels to suddenly go kaput in 3 years?
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 08:25 PM
Nov 2015

Just as 3 years means nothing about the life of an automobile, 25 years is a warranty figure that bears no known relationship to the actual expected life of silicon solar panels.

Solar Panels Creating Electricity for Much Longer than 20 Years
December 27th, 2011 by Zachary Shahan

As indicated in a study Josh wrote on just a couple weeks ago, the lifespan of a solar power system is far longer than the 20 years most analysts use to calculate solar power costs. Last November, Susan featured one that was going strong at 30 years. A Facebook fan notes that solar panels at the Technical University of Berlin have been in operation for 31 years. Similarly, Kyocera, one of the oldest solar panel manufacturers in the world, recently posted on the fact that a number of its early installations continue to generate electricity reliably nearly 30 years after installation.

I would also note that technology has improved, solar panels have become more durable, and if early solar panels produce electricity for far more than 20 (or even 25) years, what to expect of today’s solar panels?!

Here are a few case studies Kyocera highlighted in its recent article on the matter:

- In 1984, Sweden’s first grid-connected photovoltaic system was built in Stockholm. Since its installation, the façade-mounted 2.1kW system has been continuously and reliably providing the residents of an apartment building with environmentally-friendly electricity. The modules’ average annual power generation performance is still reliable — with no significant change since the system was installed 27 years ago.

- Also in 1984, Kyocera established its Sakura Solar Energy Center just outside of Tokyo. At the time, the Center was equipped with a 43kW solar power generating system which to this day continues to generate a stable amount of power for the facility.

- In 1985, Kyocera made a donation of a 10kW solar power generation system to a small farming village with no electrical infrastructure located at an elevation of 2,600m (8,500ft) in Gansu Province, China. In 1993, the area received electrical infrastructure, and the solar modules were moved to a regional research facility for clean energy, where after more than 25 years, they are still producing consistent levels of electricity.

http://cleantechnica.com/2011/12/27/solar-panels-creating-electricity-for-much-longer-than-20-years/

Or if you prefer a more analytic approach:
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Photovoltaic Degradation Rates — An Analytical Review

Dirk C. Jordan and Sarah R. Kurtz

Abstract
As photovoltaic penetration of the power grid increases, accurate predictions of return on investment require accurate prediction of decreased power output over time. Degradation rates must be known in order to predict power delivery. This article reviews degradation rates of flat- plate terrestrial modules and systems reported in published literature from field testing throughout the last 40 years. Nearly 2000 degradation rates, measured on individual modules or entire systems, have been assembled from the literature, showing a median value of 0.5%/year. The review consists of three parts: a brief historical outline, an analytical summary of degradation rates, and a detailed bibliography partitioned by technology.

1. Introduction
The ability to accurately predict power delivery over the course of time is of vital importance to the growth of the photovoltaic (PV) industry. Two key cost drivers are the efficiency with which sunlight is converted into power and how this relationship changes over time. An accurate quantification of power decline over time, also known as degradation rate, is essential to all stakeholders—utility companies, integrators, investors, and researchers alike. Financially, degradation of a PV module or system is equally important, because a higher degradation rate translates directly into less power produced and, therefore, reduces future cash flows [1]. Furthermore, inaccuracies in determined degradation rates lead directly to increased financial risk [2]. Technically, degradation mechanisms are important to understand because they may eventually lead to failure [3]. Typically, a 20% decline is considered a failure, but there is no consensus on the definition of failure, because a high-efficiency module degraded by 50% may still have a higher efficiency than a non-degraded module from a less efficient technology. The identification of the underlying degradation mechanism through experiments and modeling can lead directly to lifetime improvements. Outdoor field testing has played a vital role in quantifying long-term behavior and lifetime for at least two reasons: it is the typical operating environment for PV systems, and it is the only way to correlate indoor accelerated testing to outdoor results to forecast field performance.
Although every reference included in this paper contains a brief to slightly extensive summary of degradation rate literature, a comprehensive review could not be found. This article aims to provide such a summary by reviewing degradation rates reported globally from field testing throughout the last 40 years. After a brief historical outline, it presents a synopsis of reported degradation rates to identify statistically significant trends. Although this review is intended to be comprehensive, it is possible that a small percentage of the literature may not have been included...

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf

dumbcat

(2,120 posts)
17. No, I don't
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 09:07 PM
Nov 2015

and I really wonder about your reading comprehension skills.

I use 25 years as predicted lifetime of solar panels in my financial analyses for my clients. As experience grows, I may stretch that out.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
18. There's no problem with my reading comprehension
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 09:25 PM
Nov 2015

But I can see how, with your obvious attempt pan solar while pretending to be a supporter, you would dislike being called out on your effort.

dumbcat

(2,120 posts)
20. And that is exactly the problem with your reading comprehension
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:23 PM
Nov 2015

Where the fuck do you get the idea that I am panning solar? I have been a solar advocate, and have been designing and installing PV systems for 45 fucking years now. I am on a regional governmental council trying to get local governments to coordinate and integrate their renewable and sustainability plans. I invest in both local and national renewable energy firms.

But as an engineer that also has an MBA I understand the reality of the economics behind all these issues, and try to temper my enthusiasm with some factual reality. Something you do not.

I am done with you (again.) FYVM.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
21. I get the idea from the words you write.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:50 PM
Nov 2015

I don't come to the table with a bias against you, I judge you by what you write that is verifiable. For example, your personal claims are not verifiable. Your distortions in this thread ARE verifiable as distortions.

Specific example: the poster made the nonsense claim that after 10 years solar panels were destined for the scrap heap. You insert the warranty lifespan of 20-25 years as a substitute. That, as shown, is equally false.

You twice accused me (in a slimy backhanded way) of not understanding the difference between a factory producing panels and a solar energy production facility. Any fair reading of the OP and my comments prove that accusation undeniably wrong. Why did you make it? Judging by your past and present posts, it was just to junk up the thread and make it unreadable.

Finishline42

(1,091 posts)
34. You've been doing this for 25 years and don't seem to understand the basics of the warranty?
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 09:42 AM
Nov 2015

Something like 10 years ago I went to a seminar on solar energy locally. I have been a solar proponent since the mid-70's but this was the first time I understood the significance of the warranty period of solar panels. What at the time was 20 yrs and is now moving to 30 years. Basically they warranty the output at the stated time period - 80% of rated output for example. Since a solar panel has no moving parts this guarantee is not like that on the drivetrains of our cars which are under constant wear and tear during their use. It's a linear progression so that a panel with a guarantee of 80% at 25 years will still be producing 60% at 50 years. And that is the key. They don't just stop producing electricity if they have a valid warranty (implied quality manufacturing here). So when a system reaches the break even point where it has paid for itself there are still decades of free electricity to come.

Here's an example of what's happening in the industry now.

SunPower has recently updated their warranty (April 1st, 2013) and guarantees 95% of rated power for the first 5 years, declining by no more than 0.4% per year the following 20 years.[1] This means SunPower guarantees 87% of rated power output at 25 years – by far the best warranty on the market.
Yingli Solar`s Panda solar panels guarantees 82% of rated power output at 25 years.[2]

http://energyinformative.org/solar-panel-warranty-comparison/

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
25. I stand corrected. I read that 10 yr figure a long time ago,
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 02:19 AM
Nov 2015

and as I think about it, it might have been mean time between having to replace or repair some component of the whole system.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
28. What a load of crap.
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 02:34 AM
Nov 2015

This is what you wrote:

These cells will, if they are typical of solar cells, last about 10 years before having to be tossed onto the scrap heap, further polluting the environment.

Becomes:
I stand corrected. I read that 10 yr figure a long time ago, and as I think about it, it might have been mean time between having to replace or repair some component of the whole system.


That dog don't hunt.

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
30. So when somebody points out an error I made, I should do what? Stand my ground
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 03:41 AM
Nov 2015

like an ignorant fool? Or should I own up to the error and correct my erroneous belief.

Frankly, I'm more interested in truth than in "saving face". And, as Ralph Waldo Emerson said:

“A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day."


So why on earth would I want to value defending my error rather than discarding my error and valuing the truth?

What would YOUR priority in such a case.

Oh, right, you already answered that by criticizing me for accepting that I made an error. Something you clearly would never allow yourself to be accused of.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
32. You didn't make an "error", you made a deliberate false statement
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 04:20 AM
Nov 2015

And then you tried to smooth it over with a cock & bull story.

Orrex

(63,191 posts)
36. AUTOMATED MESSAGE: Results of your Jury Service
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 11:07 AM
Nov 2015

Mail Message
On Tue Nov 24, 2015, 09:50 AM an alert was sent on the following post:

You didn't make an "error", you made a deliberate false statement
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1127&pid=94177

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

kristopher calls another poster a liar (a deliberate false statement) with no basis whatsoever. This is becoming his go to MO and should not be acceptable in a serious discussion forum. Seems he needs to be reminded of that fact.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Tue Nov 24, 2015, 10:03 AM, and the Jury voted 1-6 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Not hide-worthy.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Seriously? An alert for this mild rejoinder? Pul-leeze.


Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: I don't see how it is a deliberate error but people need to grow up and stop whining about things.
Juror #4 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Binkie said something he knew wasn't true and got called on it. The alerted post was accurate.
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Alert Fail. Alerting is not a substitute for making your case.

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

dumbcat

(2,120 posts)
35. I used to use a 10 year estimate
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 10:45 AM
Nov 2015

for inverter replacements in my financial spreadsheets. With the new transformerless inverters and microinverters that no longer seems such a good estimate. Depending on the system design I may input an inverter replacement at 15 years, or possibly even include provision for aperiodic replacement of microinverters throughout the system life in the annual maintenance estimate.

Some people here may not agree with that approach, but my clients do, and that's what counts.

Festivito

(13,452 posts)
2. 2 million homes each year. 50 years to minimally finish the US.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:39 AM
Nov 2015

150 Amp service * 120V = 18KW max pull. I use < 10% of capacity, call it 2KW meaning 2,500,000 homes.
But, I occasionally want to run everything at once, so I want ten times the energy drain meaning 250,000 homes.
But, can't get blood from a turnip and can't get power from a cloudy moonless 18-hour winter night, so, ...
In my 25% daylight times I'd want to quadruple that capture meaning 62,500 homes per year.
$1B in overhead for one year is 64K$, 10 years is 6.4K$, 20 years is 3.2K$ for being completely off grid at full power assuming some good storage of power at additional cost of course.

or,

A minimal 2K system per home means $400 in one year, $40 in ten, $20 overhead in 20 years.
125,000 houses in US. 50 years to complete with only one factory. China would have 6 times that.

Sorry, that is not 5GW-year, just 5GW. Just thinking out loud on a Monday morning. Nearing lunch time. Can think better soon.

[font color="white"]10MW/house/year (6-16, 11 Avg)
5GW = 500 houses/year
20 years = 10,000 houses
$1B -> $100,000 / house

Across 20 years quality thereby quantity will rise. Factory won't die just because of 20 years passes.
500 houses per year, $100,000 per house over 20 years

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
4. More like 1,666,666 homes per year, every year the factory is operating
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 10:43 AM
Nov 2015

ETA the post you originally wrote - you changed it at 1138AM:

. 500 houses per year, $100,000 per house
10MW/house/year (6-16, 11 Avg)
5GW = 500 houses/year
20 years = 10,000 houses
$1B -> $100,000 / house

Across 20 years quality thereby quantity will rise. Factory won't die just because of 20 years passes.



Basic info:
1 w > 1000w = kw > 1000kw = mw > 1000mw = gw > 1000gw = tw

Globally, a good starter system for a home is 3KW.
That gives the 1.6+M homes per year.
The $1B is the cost of the plant; you can't extrapolate from that the full final cost of the panels, but you know that with that kind of output, the investment in the factory is only a small fraction of the cost.

BTW, Samsung is also building a battery factory the size of Tesla's gigafactory.

Festivito

(13,452 posts)
7. Oops. Monday. I was treating 5GW-year as power, not 5GW per year as energy.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 11:06 AM
Nov 2015

I'll try to redo that. More like 10,000 houses. Gotta get back to work.

dumbcat

(2,120 posts)
10. {Sigh} This is really sad
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 01:44 PM
Nov 2015

I just can't believe the number of ignorant people here that don't even understand what the article in the OP is really saying.

The facility is expected to have capacity of 5 gigawatts of high-efficiency solar cells annually,...

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
12. They understand.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 06:08 PM
Nov 2015

Did you know that in 2016 sixty percent of global investment in new generation is expected to go to renewables? So nah, they aren't confused. It's the just the regular conclave of nuclear power acolytes. Since nuclear is having it's ass handed to it by the plummeting costs of renewables, they are trying to get some sort of perverse satisfaction by being sore losers and "confusing" the import of any good news related to renewables.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
15. It follows from the words you typed.
Mon Nov 23, 2015, 08:06 PM
Nov 2015

Now, if you have an alternative meaning in mind for what you wrote, you might want to take a moment and add more to clarify your intent.

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
24. The answer is simple.
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 02:16 AM
Nov 2015

People with a particular axe to grind will read every third word of what you post, and fill in the missing 66% of the words they didn't read with whatever words they imagine they have read which will prove the point they are trying to make.

I can't even begin to count the number of replies I've gotten that are complete non-sequiturs which, rather than addressing the point I actually made, address the point they wish I had made, or thought I had made, or imagined that I had made.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
26. You are right, it is simple
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 02:28 AM
Nov 2015

A bunch of nuclear supporters love to come on a liberal forum and trash talk renewable energy. What is really pathetic is that they don't have the nerve to actually own their beliefs and have a discussion that focuses on the facts involved. I mean, what does it say about a person that even though the facts don't support their cherished beliefs, they continue to wage a sleazy stealth campaign instead of just embracing the truth and moving on?

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
27. The truth will set you free...
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 02:31 AM
Nov 2015

...but first, it will really piss you off.

Some people never get past getting pissed off so they can move on to acceptance of reality.

Binkie The Clown

(7,911 posts)
31. There comes a time in a discussion when you realize that
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 03:45 AM
Nov 2015

you are talking to a wall. That point has been reached, and I have nothing further to say. I'm not even sure what your point is except that you seem to be doing a lot of hating on people who disagree with you. Your problem, my friend. Not mine.

kristopher

(29,798 posts)
33. Playing the innocent lamb after trying to pass off RW falsehoods on a liberal forum?
Tue Nov 24, 2015, 04:28 AM
Nov 2015

It isn't a matter of "hating on people who disagree with you", it is just a dedication to cleaning up the slime when it spreads over what is objectively true in the area of energy.

If you want to express values that are different than what I embrace, that's fine we can discuss the way those views come to be and what they mean to each of us in the context of our lives.

But if you want to make demonstrably false representations, then you know damned well you are going to get pushback from anyone that knows better. Stick to the truth and we have no problems.

Latest Discussions»Issue Forums»Environment & Energy»China's Tongwei Group Pla...