A Terrifying Jump in Global Temperatures

[GliderGuider]

A Terrifying Jump in Global Temperatures — December of 2015 at 1.4 C Above 1890

A monster El Nino firing off in the Pacific. A massive fossil fuel driven accumulation of greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere pushing CO2 levels well above 400 parts per million. The contribution of other greenhouse gasses pushing the total global heat forcing into the range of 485 parts per million CO2e. Given this stark context, we knew the numbers were probably going to be bad. We just didn’t know how bad. And, looking at the initial measures coming in, we can definitely say that this is serious.

According to today’s report from Japan’s Meteorological Agency, global temperatures jumped by a ridiculous 0.36 degrees Celsius from the period of December 2014 — the previous hottest December in the global climate record — through December 2015 — the new hottest December by one heck of a long shot. To put such an amazing year-on-year monthly jump in global temperatures into context, the average decadal rate of global temperature increase has been in the range of 0.15 C every ten years for the past three and a half decades. It’s as if you lumped 20 years of human forced warming all into one 12 month differential.

Better get hopping with those windmills...

[lapfog_1]

1. too late

positive feedback loop engaged, permafrost melting... hydrates on the sea floor are next

I think the models have been too conservative and that the tipping point was reached some time ago

[GliderGuider]

2. I have to agree with you.

Can I have my blue pill now? That red one gave me a heartache.

[lapfog_1]

5. I stored the remote sensing data

for NASA in the 1990s... specifically the MTPE DAO (Data Acquisition Office).

That was the time to stop burning all fossil fuels... and plant a lot of forests.

[SusanCalvin]

4. That is what I have thought for some time.

Hope I die before I get old. Oh wait..... ;->

[Gregorian]

3. Just sit back, have a beer, and watch the GOP debate.

You'll soon forget all of your cares.

I was on a walk today, and thinking about why I never hear anyone talking about what the world might be like in 1000 years, not just 50. Where's that beer?

[Duppers]

6. I know a couple idiots who think we'll colonize Mars.

Ignorance is disgusting.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. And their annual figure is a significant record too

[LouisvilleDem]

14. I like this graph better

Displaying December only requires an explanation, and none is given.

[tk2kewl]

8. i hope that curve isn't going from linear to exponential

[GliderGuider]

9. This eyeball says that's a distinct possibility. nt

[Ghost Dog]

10. Agree.

Now financial system "rewiring"...

[GliderGuider]

11. The global financial system is being rewired on the fly

At Middle East wellheads and on Chinese factory floors.

Round and round and round she goes,
And where she stops, nobody knows...

[hunter]

12. I have kids, nephews, nieces, grand nephews and nieces.

What can I say? My parents were prolific.

My siblings and I all held at 1,2, or 3, average "replacement" I guess.

Time to teach the kids how to migrate gracefully maybe, same way their ancestors left Europe.

Don't be where the famines and wars are.

But this time it's the entire earth going down the tubes, all at once.

Where to go?

No fun.

[LouisvilleDem]

13. Why December?

Why show temperature averages for the month of December only? I smell cherry picking...

[GliderGuider]

15. Because it was the most recent monthly data posted by the JMA?

Nothing nefarious.

[NickB79]

16. Post 7 puts any claim of cherry picking to rest, using annual figures in that graph

The JMA cherry picking? No.

LouisvilleDem grasping at straws? Yes.

[LouisvilleDem]

17. As I said in post #14

I like the annual graph better if for no other reason than it offers broader context and less noise.

Still, 0.71°C per century isn't exactly a rate of warming to write home about, is it?

[NickB79]

18. Are you kidding me?!? 0.71 degrees C per century is an insanely rapid rate of change!

It's a faster rate of warming than the planet has seen for millions of years.

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php

As the Earth moved out of ice ages over the past million years, the global temperature rose a total of 4 to 7 degrees Celsius over about 5,000 years. In the past century alone, the temperature has climbed 0.7 degrees Celsius, roughly ten times faster than the average rate of ice-age-recovery warming.

And might I add, this level of warming is against a strong climactic headwind as the planet was supposed to be entering a new Ice Age: http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/14/world/ice-age-postponed/index.html

Scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany have found that the Earth's last eight ice ages can be explained by a relation between insolation -- solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface -- and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. This also helps to predict future glacial cycles.

"As far as the human power is concerned, the main lesson is that by burning fossil fuel over just one century we will affect climate for at least 100,000 years or even more," lead researcher Andrey Ganopolski tells CNN.

It's like an Olympic sprinter breaking a world record by a crazy amount of time, while simultaneously pulling a chain of bowling balls behind him.

And even though we're already warming 10X faster than the end of the last ice age, the recent spike visible in the annual graph in post #7 shows that we may be seeing the long-feared acceleration phase many climate scientists have predicted as multiple positive feedback loops are engaged.

[LouisvilleDem]

19. The science is not really settled on that yet

Some believe rapid change has happened in the past:

http://science.sciencemag.org/content/321/5889/680.short

The last two abrupt warmings at the onset of our present warm interglacial period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cooling event, were investigated at high temporal resolution from the North Greenland Ice Core Project ice core. The deuterium excess, a proxy of Greenland precipitation moisture source, switched mode within 1 to 3 years over these transitions and initiated a more gradual change (over 50 years) of the Greenland air temperature, as recorded by stable water isotopes. The onsets of both abrupt Greenland warmings were slightly preceded by decreasing Greenland dust deposition, reflecting the wetting of Asian deserts. A northern shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone could be the trigger of these abrupt shifts of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, resulting in changes of 2 to 4 kelvin in Greenland moisture source temperature from one year to the next.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/06/080619142112.htm

The ice core showed the Northern Hemisphere briefly emerged from the last ice age some 14,700 years ago with a 22-degree-Fahrenheit spike in just 50 years, then plunged back into icy conditions before abruptly warming again about 11,700 years ago. Startlingly, the Greenland ice core evidence showed that a massive "reorganization" of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere coincided with each temperature spurt, with each reorganization taking just one or two years, said the study authors.

[truebrit71]

20. Are you fucking serious? "not really settled yet"...

Heads up folks, we got a live one....

[LouisvilleDem]

23. Slow down big guy...

...and take the time to read my post to see what I am actually referring to.

[hatrack]

21. Here's November:

Here's October:



Here's September:



Here's August:



Here's July:



Here's June:



Here's May:



Here's April:



Here's March:



Here's February:



Here's January:



Here's Fall:



Here's Summer:



Here's Spring:



Here's Winter:



http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/win_wld.html

Anything else I can get for you?

[LouisvilleDem]

22. Thanks!

It's amazing the difference between the months. For example, the trend varies considerably, from a low of 0.63°C to a high of 0.83°C. Heck, if you were to only look at the Jan-Mar months you can make it look like there was not only a 'pause', but that temperatures were actually declining from 2000-2015 (which of course is not true).

This shows how important it is to stick to displaying annual averages rather than a specific months.