How Many Booms Are Left For The Oil Industry? Potentially None - Houston Chronicle

[hatrack]

Ask almost anyone in the oil business, and they will say a bust is always followed by another boom. But what if the industry has only one big cycle left?

A world that does not rely on oil for transportation was considered science fiction, something only possible if we found the mythical dilithium crystals that power Star Trek's Enterprise. But an amalgamation of new technologies could dramatically reduce demand for oil, which means a large number of Houston energy companies will eventually need new business plans.

For the last 20 years, per capita oil use has dropped in developed countries as fuel efficiency and public transportation use have grown. In the U.S., fewer driver's licenses and lower rates of automobile ownerships are two reasons for lower demand. Millennials and senior citizens are less likely to have driver's licenses or own cars, relying instead on transportation networks like Uber and Lyft, or car-sharing services such as ZipCar and Car2Go.

Mobile Internet technology has made this more painless, and city dwellers save substantial sums on car payments, insurance, parking and taxes. Lower rates of car ownership lead to less oil consumption, as the number of discretionary trips decreases.

EDIT

Oil's latest boom-bust cycle arguably began in 2005 when rising demand spurred investment and innovation, such as hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling. Oil prices peaked in June 2014 and capitulated in 2016. If the next oil cycle begins in 2017, when inventories empty and prices rise again, the peak will come in the early 2020s, just as autonomous and electric vehicles scale up. Oil's next price spike will be an act of hari-kari as consumers race to cheaper, cleaner alternatives.

EDIT

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/columnists/tomlinson/article/Few-boom-cycles-left-for-the-oil-industry-6792156.php?t=3cfd209006438d9cbb&cmpid=twitter-premium&utm_content=buffer5162e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[eppur_se_muova]

1. Ummm ... using Uber, Lyft, or car-sharing still burns gas.

Fewer cars burning more gas each. Not likely to have a noticeable benefit.

Hybrid and all-electric vehicles, on the other hand ... not mentioned.