China vowed to peak carbon emissions by 2030. It could be way ahead of schedule

[muriel_volestrangler]

A new paper, released Sunday night by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science, argues that a changing economic and energy landscape in China will help the nation’s emissions to peak by 2025 at the latest — if it didn’t already happen in 2014. The report, which will be published in the journal Climate Policy later this month, was released just two days after the Chinese government announced it would cap its annual energy consumption at 5 billion metric tons of standard coal equivalent by 2020 and reduce its carbon dioxide intensity by 18 percent between now and then.

“We basically focused on trends in China’s economy generally, which affect energy demand and trends in energy supply, and used that to come up with a forecast of the trajectory of China’s carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector over the coming decade,” said lead author Fergus Green, currently a PhD candidate at the London School of Economics and Political Science’s Department of Government. Green co-authored the paper with renowned climate economist Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute, and served as Stern’s policy analyst and research adviser at the time the research was conducted.

In their report, Green and Stern argue that China is now entering a “new normal,” in which a series of fundamental economic changes is beginning to take place that will help transform the country’s energy landscape and level out its greenhouse gas emissions, which are currently driven largely by the energy sector. And these changes are already beginning to take place.

In the previous few decades, China’s economic model was based on high GDP growth rates and heavy investment in construction and related industries, such as steel and cement, the authors pointed out. These industries are extremely energy intensive and have relied heavily on coal-fired power stations, which produce huge amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. Between 2000 and 2013, the country’s coal consumption grew by about 8 percent each year, the report notes, nearly tripling altogether by the end of the 13-year period. The result was huge economic growth, accompanied by hefty carbon dioxide emissions.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/03/07/china-vowed-to-peak-carbon-emissions-by-2030-these-researchers-think-it-could-already-be-there/

As China’s government finalises the country’s 13th Five Year Plan for economic development (2016–2020), this article takes stock of recent changes in China’s economy and energy system since the turn of the century, and looks ahead to the likely trajectory of China’s emissions over the next decade. The period 2000–2013, it is now clear, was a distinct and exceptional phase in China’s developmental history, during which the very high levels of greenhouse gases emitted were linked closely with the energy-intensive, heavy industry-based growth model pursued at that time. China is currently undergoing another major structural transformation — towards a new development model focused on achieving better quality growth that is more sustainable and inclusive — and it is also grappling with economic challenges associated with the transition. Data from 2014 and the first three quarters of 2015 illustrate the extent of these changes. Based on analysis of this data in light of the underlying changes occurring in China’s economy and policy, this article provides an updated forecast of the Kaya components of energy CO2 emissions (GDP, energy/GDP and CO2/energy) over the next decade to 2025. It concludes that China’s CO2 emissions from energy, if they grow at all, are likely to grow much slower than under the old economic model and are likely to peak at some point in the decade before 2025.

http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/65483/

China's carbon emissions, by far the world's highest, may have peaked in 2014, according to a study published on Monday, potentially putting Beijing under pressure to toughen climate pledges perceived as too lax.

China has promised to bring greenhouse gas emissions to a peak by "around 2030" as part of its commitments to a global pact to combat global warming, signed in Paris last year. Any evidence that the country has peaked much earlier could lead to concerns that its existing targets are too easy.

In response to the report, China's senior climate change envoy said on Monday the country's emissions were still growing.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-carbon-idUSKCN0W900J

[NickB79]

1. The estimates are only as good as the data fed into them, and the data is shady at best

For example, just last Nov. China dropped this bombshell: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/04/china-underreporting-coal-consumption-by-up-to-17-data-suggests

The revelation – which may mean China has emitted close to a billion additional tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year – could complicate the fight against global warming ahead of the United Nations climate change conference in Paris, which begins on 30 November.

In 2012 China consumed 600m more tonnes of coal – or more than 70% of the United States’ annual total – than previously disclosed, according to the revised data.

China’s national bureau of statistics did not immediately confirm the report. However, speaking at a coal conference in Beijing, an adviser to the natural resources defence council said: “The new figures are more accurate than before.”

Zhou Fengqi, the adviser, told AFP the updated figures “more accurately reflect the situation”.

See also: http://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2015/11/09/environment/china-faces-raft-of-obstacles-as-it-tries-to-calculate-correct-greenhouse-gas-emissions-figures/#.Vt3istBfMud