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OKIsItJustMe

(19,933 posts)
Mon Mar 28, 2016, 02:02 PM Mar 2016

Ocean temperatures predict U.S. heat waves 50 days out

(Please note, NSF release. Copyright concerns are nil.)

http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=138086

Press Release 16-032
[font face=Serif][font size=5]Ocean temperatures predict U.S. heat waves 50 days out[/font]

[font size=4]Pacific pattern forms in advance of hot days in eastern U.S.[/font]

March 28, 2016

[font size=3]This is part 14 in a series on NSF's geosciences risk and resilience interest area. Please see parts one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, 10, 11, 12 and 13.

The formation of a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the middle of the North Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summer heat waves in the eastern half of the U.S. up to 50 days in advance.

The pattern is a contrast of warmer-than-average water coming up against cooler-than-average seas. When it appears, the odds that extreme heat will strike during a particular week -- or even on a particular day -- can more than triple, depending on how well-formed the pattern is.

The findings were published today in the journal Nature Geoscience. The lead author is scientist Karen McKinnon of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado.

"Summertime heat waves are among the deadliest weather events, and can have big effects on farming, energy use and other critical aspects of society," said McKinnon. "If we can give city planners and farmers a heads-up that extreme heat is on the way, we might be able to avoid some of the worst consequences."



"This intriguing result has enormous practical implications," said Candace Major, program director in the National Science Foundation (NSF) Division of Ocean Sciences, which funded the research along with NSF's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences. "The potential for predicting the risk of dangerous heat waves more than a month in advance is very exciting. With more time to prepare, communities have a greater chance of avoiding the serious economic and health consequences of weather extremes."



At 50 days out, they were able to predict an increase in the odds -- from about one-in-six to about one-in-four -- that a heat wave would strike somewhere in the eastern U.S. during a given week.

For a particularly well-formed pattern, at 30 days out or closer the scientists were able to predict that a heat wave would strike on a particular day at odds of better than one-in-two.



Scientists don't yet know why the fingerprint of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific predicts heat on the East Coast.

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