Projections: Thai Rice Output Down 18% By 2030; Reality: Mekong Delta Drought Worst In Century

[hatrack]

EDIT

In the coming years, supplies from Thailand's rice bowl in the north-east could shrink, and fish could swim away to cooler waters, for instance. A recent study by the Nanyang Technological University's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) noted that variations in food production around the world due to climate shocks are likely to become more intense and frequent.

The report said that by 2030, for example, rice production in north-eastern Thailand could be reduced by up to 17.8 per cent due to flooding and storm surges. Fish catch potential in the waters of South-east Asia could also shrink by up to 60 per cent, as fish migrate away from the Equator to escape warmer oceans and increasingly acidic waters.

Climate change has already hit some farmers. Vietnam's southern Mekong delta - the rice basket of the country - is reeling from the worst drought to hit the country in nearly a century, and it is expected to hit rice harvests hard.

Dr Cecilia Tortajada, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, noted that as Singapore's food supply is sourced from around the world, supply disruptions due to climate change may not be as severe as for other countries that produce their own food. "If food from one source does not come, either due to climate change issues or other local problems, such as disruptions at the farm level, Singapore can source its food from other countries," Dr Tortajada told The Straits Times.

EDIT

http://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/global-warming-hits-rice-bowls

[Nihil]

1. Is it optimism or ignorance?

> "If food from one source does not come, either due to climate change issues or
> other local problems, such as disruptions at the farm level, Singapore can source
> its food from other countries"

If there is no bread in Tesco, go down the road to Sainsbury or Asda.
If there's still none around, go to the next town and try there.

[OnlinePoker]

2. A lot of the issues on the Mekong are due to China's water policy

The Mekong Delta is facing its worst drought in recent history, causing food and water shortages for over half a million people. The Chinese government has made headlines amidst the disaster for its decision to release water from upstream dams within China’s borders. Chinese ministry spokesman Lu Kang said in a news briefing that China “hopes it can be of help in alleviating the drought downstream.”

The water will be released until April 10 from the Jinghong dam, with the stated purpose to benefit Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam.

The Chinese ministry and media blame El Niño weather for the massive drought that has damaged 160,000 hectares (approximately 620 square miles) of rice in the Mekong Delta, left 600,000 people facing drinking water shortages, and resulted in losses of over $220 million. Vietnamese officials say El Nino is partly to blame, along with excessive construction of more than 10 hydropower dams on the upper stream of the river.

http://thediplomat.com/2016/03/china-and-the-mekong-delta-water-savior-or-water-tyrant/

[phantom power]

3. Less Thai Rice Than Expected