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marmar

(77,053 posts)
Wed Jan 27, 2016, 10:27 AM Jan 2016

Suburban office parks are dying because young people don't want to drive there





(Mother Nature Network) At a New Year’s Eve party, I was talking to a business exec running a tech company located in a suburban office building. He was complaining about the number of times he would interview a person who would say he wasn't crazy about taking the subway and then a bus all the way out to the ‘burbs every day. The exec got increasingly frustrated and at one point responded “So get a car! That’s what grown-ups do when they get jobs!” The candidate responded that he didn’t know how to drive, didn’t have a license, and would keep looking for a job that allowed him to use a bike or transit. This scenario has played out more than once, so the company is now looking for new office space downtown. The suburban office building in his business sector is functionally obsolete. It may well become what we used to call a "see-through" — a glass box with nothing inside.

A new study from real estate firm Newmark, Grubb, Knight and Frank confirms that this kind of obsolescence is becoming common. In fact, of the six factors signifying obsolescence, it's perhaps the most important and the least curable.

Suburban office buildings that have become obsolete due to car-centric and removed locations — and which do not have some factor that will remedy these traits in the future (such as a planned transit station or new highway exits) — are unlikely to achieve market-average rents as leases roll. In extreme cases, properties that are incurably obsolete — primarily those at undesirable locations or with building sizes or for plates that tenants now find either too large or too small — may never lease again.


The study notes that there's always a market of some kind for obsolete space: “There will always be extremely value-conscious tenants who set cost as their most important requirement. As a result, there will always be some market share for value-priced properties, even if those properties do not conform to the current trends of transit-adjacent, amenity- laden space.” ..........................(more)

http://www.mnn.com/money/green-workplace/blogs/suburban-office-parks-are-dying-because-young-people-dont-want-drive-there?utm_content=buffer91ad2&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer




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Suburban office parks are dying because young people don't want to drive there (Original Post) marmar Jan 2016 OP
Perhaps re-purpose as a school. Can't imagine that would be too difficult..n/t monmouth4 Jan 2016 #1
Not getting a car is fine yeoman6987 Jan 2016 #2
And the same person TexasMommaWithAHat Jan 2016 #3
Employers want employees to have cars My Good Babushka Jan 2016 #4
Depends where the population base is MichMan Jan 2016 #5
Depends on what you define as "quality of life" marmar Jan 2016 #7
They could always deploy the Google bus model KamaAina Jan 2016 #6
Passenger Transportation has always lost money.... happyslug Jan 2016 #8
Um, yes, the office parks would have to subsidize the shuttles KamaAina Jan 2016 #9
Lets be honest, here, the people these people want do not want to live in the Suburbs happyslug Jan 2016 #10

TexasMommaWithAHat

(3,212 posts)
3. And the same person
Wed Jan 27, 2016, 10:48 AM
Jan 2016

once he has a partner in three kids might be thankful for a job in a suburban office park.

Businesses are locating in the 'burbs to make it easier for their older, more established workers. Not everyone can afford to raise a family in the city.

My Good Babushka

(2,710 posts)
4. Employers want employees to have cars
Wed Jan 27, 2016, 11:07 AM
Jan 2016

which are expensive to buy and maintain, but they don't want to pay enough for the employee to maintain that kind of lifestyle, especially when rent, health care, child care and student loans are competing for such a large portion of workers' wages these days. Something has got to give and young people are giving up cars. I think it's good and will spur greater investments in mass transit.

MichMan

(11,868 posts)
5. Depends where the population base is
Wed Jan 27, 2016, 11:58 AM
Jan 2016

In many metro areas, the vast number of people live in the suburbs.

Personally, I would much rather just drive to a suburban office park and park right next to the building than fight traffic in a congested city, try and find a spot in a parking garage , pay $$ for parking, and worry about my car being broken into.

There is a reason, I moved to a rural area. Takes me 30 min to drive to work or shop, but the overall quality of life is so much better and housing is much more affordable

marmar

(77,053 posts)
7. Depends on what you define as "quality of life"
Wed Jan 27, 2016, 05:02 PM
Jan 2016

Being that far away from the culture, entertainment, dining, along with the cultural diversity, of the city, living in an isolated, heterogeneous area I would find rather depressing
 

KamaAina

(78,249 posts)
6. They could always deploy the Google bus model
Wed Jan 27, 2016, 01:16 PM
Jan 2016

if there are enough office parks in a given area, like along Atlanta's Perimeter, they could run shuttles from midtown (or in that case, the nearest MARTA station).

 

happyslug

(14,779 posts)
8. Passenger Transportation has always lost money....
Thu Jan 28, 2016, 01:31 PM
Jan 2016

Adam Smith reported this in the 1700s and has remained true to this vary day. In the days of Railroads, the Trains would have STOPPED running passenger cars except such service had been part of the law that gave Railroads the rights of Eminent Domain, that once the railroad was built, it would provide passenger service. The main purpose of Amtrak was to relive the railroads of this duty by transferring it to a Government Agency, that every thought would be out of business in ten years.

Plane travel has NEVER made money. The Airports were built by the US Air Force for its planes (and then used by passenger planes) or by local governments, The US Post Office subsidy in the form of Air Mail was critical for most Air Lines prior to WWII AND remains a subsidy to this day (Mail goes by air on a space available basis, thus if the plane is empty, mail fills the empty luggage holds).

Greyhound has barely stayed in business, and again its terminals tend to be built by local government OR on sidewalks on the side of the road. Even the low cost buses depend on using local sidewalks as pick up points.

Sorry, Passenger transportation has NEVER paid for itself, it has to be subsidized somehow. This subsidy may be direct, like paying someone to provide the service, but mostly indirectly, as in providing money if no passengers show up OR by requiring someone to provide the service even if they lose money on the service (The Railroads were the classic example of this) OR by providing much of the costs incurred by the provider (as in the case of Buses and Planes where the roads and airports they use are paid by someone else).

Thus the proposed "Google Bus Model" will have to be subsidized somehow, and when it comes to direct subsidies you will face massive resistance (Thus indirect subsidizes have always been the preferred means of subsidy).

The one exception to this rule MAY be the old Steam passenger ships, but in those ships the cost of providing the 1st, 2nd and 3rd class passengers, passenger service was borne by the sheer profit made from the people in steerage. In Steerage, sanitary facilities were barely furnished and nothing else was (Steerage had be bring their own food, and cook their own food). Steerage was cheap ticket and you were pack like sardines, but it appears to have been profitable, through even that service was "Subsidized" by businesses in the US bearing some of the cost in exchange for first chance at hiring any new immigrants.

When immigration restrictions were imposed during the 1920s, all of the old ships ended up being scrapped for without steerage passengers they could not be made profitable. Passenger service had become so unprofitable by WWII that almost all Passenger Ships built in the 1930s were built with Government Funds or backing (This was justified on the grounds such ships may be needed as troops transport in time of war). The US United States was built by with assistance of the US Navy, in case the Navy ever needed it as a troop transport. By the 1950s Air Traffic finally killed off the transatlantic passenger ship and most ended up as cruse ships in the Caribbean, again NOT as passenger ships but vacations spots in themselves.

Sorry, a Google type system would need a direct subsidy to work and right now there is no support for such a subsidy (and no support for a one Dollar a gallon tax on gasoline, for that would also act as a subsidy to mass transit in the form of increasing the costs of driving while the cost of taking mass transit would remain the same). Without some sort of subsidy, direct or indirect, passenger service can NOT be profitable and even the Google type transportation system has to at least break even.

 

KamaAina

(78,249 posts)
9. Um, yes, the office parks would have to subsidize the shuttles
Thu Jan 28, 2016, 01:35 PM
Jan 2016

just as Google does, so as to stay in business.

 

happyslug

(14,779 posts)
10. Lets be honest, here, the people these people want do not want to live in the Suburbs
Thu Jan 28, 2016, 07:11 PM
Jan 2016

We are talking about people from the East Coast or even Europe who has the education desired AND have traveled aboard and have experience aboard. Most US residents who had never been aboard, do not even make the final cut to be interviewed.

On top of that, this is mostly a East Coast Phenomenon. Most people look at those suburbs as nothing but urban areas without mass transit. Thus why move to such an area when you can live in an area where mass transit is available. I remember in the 1960s hearing my father talking to a man on his Post Office Route about then recent development, that just a few years before he had gone dove hunting in the area which then had housing. A "True" Suburb always retain some rural characteristics, but when those are gone, it is nothing but an urban area, through it retains the name of being a Suburb. That is the problem a lot of these managers and finding out, they are NOT in a suburban community any more, but an Urban community without mass transit. Worse an Urban area designed that business and residential areas are MILES apart. Thus it is the worse of the Urban Area, a lot of people and traffic and lots of red lights, and the worse suburbia, you have to travel MILES to get anywhere, including from home to work in addition to school, shop , gym etc.

This is compounded by gentrification of Urban Areas. The housing closest to old urban centers are getting to be around 150 years old. That is the age, unless extensive work is done on them, it is cheaper to tear down and build new. In many ways these older neighborhoods are like the green country fields of the 1950, cheap to buy in mass, then build high end homes on that cheap land and sell at a huge profit. These tend to be in what 40 years ago were considered "Bad Neighborhoods" but today are mostly empty shacks. These areas tend to have excellent mass transit and very good Police patrols. They are close to urban centers and with the expansion of bike ways along old railroad right of ways, can be seen as bicycle friendly. These areas still have a lot of red lights and crime, but the crime is about the same as in the suburbs so NOT that much of a factor today. The big question for most buyers are the schools, If the buyer have no children not an issue for them (Singles, young adults and older adults whose children are in collage). Schools are still a HUGE factor for most people with children (and thus the push for "Charter Schools" to give these parents the option of taking their children out of the Public Schools and into a better school and still stay in the City).

Back to urban areas and away from Schools. Housing in urban areas are getting to the age they have to be rebuilt or torn down. That makes them cheap. Thus housing can not longer be rented out for that is how bad a condition it is in. My Father delivered mail in one such area 30 years ago, and in whole neighborhoods you had one house rented out, the rest were not occupied. That is an idea area for someone to come in, tear out the old housing and build new.

In my area I have seen this in older neighborhoods, starting with the old abandoned steel mills. The area right next to the old Steel Mill in the 1940s that area was known to be a bad neighborhood, it remained bad till the 1990s when it was redeveloped along with the old steel mill site into a shopping complex (the old Steel Mill) and high end housing (the old bad neighborhood). A new Rails to Trail route was built in the area. This also helped the older section of town around that development, as people moved into that area and rebuilt most of the homes to modern standards. Most of these older homes just needed a face lift outside, but inside were gutted and rewired and new plumbing to meet modern living standards.

In larger cities these are near Universities and thus a lot of young graduates are use to these areas, that helps the gentrification. These areas are attractive to them and so they go into these areas.

Thus gentrification is also part of this movement, as homes in what use to be called slums become so cheap, it is almost like building on virgin ground. Why move to the suburbs when all you want is in the city and the suburbs are nothing more then an extension of that city AND with none of the advantages of the city. Thus you see young adults without children, older adults without children moving into these urban areas. Families with School Age Children tend to still want the Suburbs, but only do to better schools and if that issue is addressed, they would be moving into the Urban core.

Please note, the older Trolley Suburbs of the 1890s to the 1920s are becoming the new slums. These homes have some life left into them, and thus have some value. These home are still inhabitable without major repair. Thus the poor are slowly moving into these older trolley suburbs as the are push out of the urban core. The poor can NOT afford to upgrade their homes, so they have to abandon them when the house because uninhabitable. With minimum care a home lasts about 150 years, and the older inner city homes that made the slums of most cities from the 1930s till abut 1990 have past that life expectancy. Those homes built from the 1830s till the 1890s are the homes either being torn down and replaced OR Gutted and updated today. The poor can not PAID for that type of work, so they moved into homes that has some life left in them and today that is the older trolley suburbs of the 1890 to 1930 period. The Trolley Suburbs homes have 30 to 50 years life left in them but need a lot of care, thus low valued and thus low rent. On the other hand they have SOME value and thus not like buying vacant land for development as is the case with homes in the older areas of urban areas.

Homes tend to have a set life span:

1. Original owners and builders. These tend to be high wage earners and build they homes to what they want and then stay in them from 20 to 50 years.

2. Second buyers. These tend to be more working class as opposed to upper middle class people (and that goes for homes built for Upper Middle Class AND for working class people). They tend to stay in them 20-50 years.

3. Third buyers, if a home is lived in by the previous two owners less then 50 years, these tend to be working class people who also live in the home 20 to 50 years.

The above three groups overlap to a great degree, with many homes being lived by one of them 50 years then by someone else for 20 years. In recent decades you have seen a greater movement of people and thus a shorter stay, but the tendency is about 25 years each for the above three generations.

4. The Fourth Generation, this group tends to stay in the home 20 to 25 years. They WANT to stay in the home the rest of their lives, but do NOT have the financial security to do so. They are working class, but the lower end of the working class, thus move more often then the above three groups. In many homes this is the third generation, for the first two group stay in the home 75 years or longer combined together. This tends to be the last generation that does any real work on the home to update it or improve it.

5, At about 100 years old, the home starts to enter the age of more frequent residents, it tends to become rental property as the tenants have an even worse financial security then the fourth generation. Residents try to stay for five or more years, but you have residents who stay in the unit one year or less. Updating of the house stops. Repairs are made just to keep the house habitable. After about 50 years, the house has declined so much it is either torn down OR sold for almost nothing to someone who guts it and rebuilt it almost to new standard and the above process re-starts.

There are variation of the above, early homes in a neighborhood will not see their price decline till the later built homes in their area see a price decline (i.e. an Old Farm house built 50 years before the surrounding new suburban housing was built, would only see the above when the rest of the housing around it enters that decline). This does not apply to Public Housing, for such housing has its own rules, including it was built for low income people (and before 1974 Low Income was the only FEDERAL restriction, thus most Public Housing required steady income and refused to rent to people on welfare, thus Public Housing has a good reputation before Congress told them they had to rent to people on Welfare and other "Low Low Low Income people", "Low Low Low income" was a term invented in 1974 to help defined who could get into public housing for "low Income" included anyone making less the about $50,00).

Low-Low-Low Income is now called "Extremely low income" and the limit is $11,950 in Cambria County PA ($23,250 in San Francisco CA)

Low Low Income is now called "Very Low Income" and the limit is $19,950 in Cambria County PA ($38,759 in San Francisco CA)

Low Income is $31,850 ($62,050 in San Francisco)

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/il/il2014/2014summary.odn

To look up the amount in your county:

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/il/il2014/select_Geography.odn

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/il/fmr98/sect8.html

Yes, Very Low income in San Francisco is higher then "Low Income" In Johnstown PA (the largest city in Cambria County PA).

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